NexGen Energy Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| NXE Stock | USD 12.35 0.35 2.92% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of NexGen Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 13.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.40 and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.30. NexGen Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast NexGen Energy stock prices and determine the direction of NexGen Energy's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of NexGen Energy's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength index (RSI) of NexGen Energy's share price is above 70 at the present time. This indicates that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling NexGen, making its price go up or down. Momentum 70
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Wall Street Target Price 5.31 |
Using NexGen Energy hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of NexGen Energy from the perspective of NexGen Energy response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards NexGen Energy using NexGen Energy's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards NexGen using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of NexGen Energy's stock price.
NexGen Energy Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in NexGen Energy's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards NexGen. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of NexGen Energy stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 7.558 | Short Percent 0.0209 | Short Ratio 10.77 | Shares Short Prior Month 87.6 M | 50 Day MA 9.3332 |
NexGen Energy Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to NexGen Energy's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in NexGen. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding NexGen can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around NexGen Energy. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
NexGen Energy Implied Volatility | 0.74 |
NexGen Energy's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of NexGen Energy stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if NexGen Energy's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that NexGen Energy stock will not fluctuate a lot when NexGen Energy's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of NexGen Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 13.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.40 and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.30. NexGen Energy after-hype prediction price | USD 12.35 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of NexGen Energy to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current NexGen contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that NexGen Energy will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0463% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With NexGen Energy trading at USD 12.35, that is roughly USD 0.005712 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating NexGen Energy's daily price movement you should consider acquiring NexGen Energy options at the current volatility level of 0.74%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 NexGen Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast NexGen Energy's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in NexGen Energy's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for NexGen Energy stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current NexGen Energy's open interest, investors have to compare it to NexGen Energy's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of NexGen Energy is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in NexGen. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
NexGen Energy Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine NexGen price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for NexGen using various technical indicators. When you analyze NexGen charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
NexGen Energy Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the NexGen Energy's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2012-06-30 | Previous Quarter 371.6 M | Current Value 306 M | Quarterly Volatility 146 M |
NexGen Energy Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of NexGen Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 13.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.40, mean absolute percentage error of 0.24, and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.30.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict NexGen Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that NexGen Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
NexGen Energy Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest NexGen Energy | NexGen Energy Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
NexGen Energy Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting NexGen Energy's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. NexGen Energy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.18 and 16.86, respectively. We have considered NexGen Energy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of NexGen Energy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent NexGen Energy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.6752 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3984 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.044 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 24.3028 |
Predictive Modules for NexGen Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as NexGen Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of NexGen Energy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
NexGen Energy After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of NexGen Energy at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in NexGen Energy or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of NexGen Energy, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
NexGen Energy Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting NexGen Energy's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on NexGen Energy's historical news coverage. NexGen Energy's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 8.52 and 16.18, respectively. We have considered NexGen Energy's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
NexGen Energy is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of NexGen Energy is based on 3 months time horizon.
NexGen Energy Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as NexGen Energy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading NexGen Energy backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with NexGen Energy, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.70 | 3.84 | 0.49 | 0.06 | 4 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 4 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
12.35 | 12.35 | 0.00 |
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NexGen Energy Hype Timeline
On the 23rd of January NexGen Energy is traded for 12.35. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.49, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.06. NexGen is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.7%. %. The volatility of related hype on NexGen Energy is about 4266.67%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 12.29. About 57.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.43. NexGen Energy last dividend was issued on the March 13, 2013. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 4 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of NexGen Energy to cross-verify your projections.NexGen Energy Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to NexGen Energy's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict NexGen Energy's future price movements. Getting to know how NexGen Energy's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how NexGen Energy may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| UUUU | Energy Fuels | 0.17 | 22 per month | 5.47 | 0.05 | 9.31 | (8.64) | 24.95 | |
| LEU | Centrus Energy Corp | 0.01 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 10.24 | (8.82) | 25.98 | |
| UEC | Uranium Energy Corp | 0.16 | 12 per month | 4.22 | 0.09 | 10.55 | (7.47) | 23.03 | |
| CHRD | Chord Energy Corp | 0.70 | 8 per month | 2.00 | 0.01 | 3.54 | (3.61) | 9.26 | |
| VIST | Vista Oil Gas | 0.17 | 2 per month | 1.76 | 0.15 | 6.03 | (3.43) | 23.65 | |
| SOBO | South Bow | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.36 | (0.01) | 2.08 | (2.41) | 8.35 | |
| WFRD | Weatherford International plc | (3.11) | 9 per month | 1.69 | 0.18 | 4.77 | (3.38) | 13.20 | |
| FRO | Frontline | 0.70 | 12 per month | 2.53 | 0.02 | 3.42 | (3.95) | 10.94 | |
| CNX | CNX Resources Corp | (0.40) | 10 per month | 1.59 | 0.07 | 3.38 | (2.77) | 8.32 | |
| NOV | NOV Inc | 0.70 | 4 per month | 1.74 | 0.20 | 5.89 | (3.46) | 12.79 |
Other Forecasting Options for NexGen Energy
For every potential investor in NexGen, whether a beginner or expert, NexGen Energy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. NexGen Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in NexGen. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying NexGen Energy's price trends.NexGen Energy Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with NexGen Energy stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of NexGen Energy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing NexGen Energy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
NexGen Energy Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how NexGen Energy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading NexGen Energy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying NexGen Energy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify NexGen Energy entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
NexGen Energy Risk Indicators
The analysis of NexGen Energy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in NexGen Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting nexgen stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.97 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.49 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.92 | |||
| Variance | 15.38 | |||
| Downside Variance | 15.32 | |||
| Semi Variance | 12.19 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.03) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for NexGen Energy
The number of cover stories for NexGen Energy depends on current market conditions and NexGen Energy's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that NexGen Energy is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about NexGen Energy's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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NexGen Energy Short Properties
NexGen Energy's future price predictability will typically decrease when NexGen Energy's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of NexGen Energy often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential NexGen Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. NexGen Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 554.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 476.6 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of NexGen Energy to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade NexGen Stock refer to our How to Trade NexGen Stock guide.You can also try the Odds Of Bankruptcy module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.
Is Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of NexGen Energy. If investors know NexGen will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about NexGen Energy listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of NexGen Energy is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of NexGen that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of NexGen Energy's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is NexGen Energy's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because NexGen Energy's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect NexGen Energy's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between NexGen Energy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if NexGen Energy is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, NexGen Energy's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.