Oil Dri Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| ODC Stock | USD 58.26 0.78 1.32% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Oil Dri on the next trading day is expected to be 61.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.90 and the sum of the absolute errors of 54.86. Oil Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Oil Dri stock prices and determine the direction of Oil Dri's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Oil Dri's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength index (rsi) of Oil Dri's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.06) | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.06) |
Using Oil Dri hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Oil Dri from the perspective of Oil Dri response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Oil Dri Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Oil Dri's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Oil. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Oil can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Oil Dri. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Oil Dri on the next trading day is expected to be 61.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.90 and the sum of the absolute errors of 54.86.
Oil Dri after-hype prediction price | USD 59.13 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Oil Dri to cross-verify your projections. Oil Dri Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Oil price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Oil using various technical indicators. When you analyze Oil charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Oil Dri Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Oil Dri's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 1986-07-31 | Previous Quarter 50.5 M | Current Value 42.4 M | Quarterly Volatility 9.9 M |
Oil Dri Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Oil Dri on the next trading day is expected to be 61.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.90, mean absolute percentage error of 1.72, and the sum of the absolute errors of 54.86.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Oil Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Oil Dri's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Oil Dri Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Oil Dri | Oil Dri Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Oil Dri Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Oil Dri's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Oil Dri's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 58.86 and 63.69, respectively. We have considered Oil Dri's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Oil Dri stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Oil Dri stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.651 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.8994 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0172 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 54.8621 |
Predictive Modules for Oil Dri
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Oil Dri. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Oil Dri's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Oil Dri After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Oil Dri at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Oil Dri or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Oil Dri, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Oil Dri Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Oil Dri's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Oil Dri's historical news coverage. Oil Dri's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 56.72 and 61.54, respectively. We have considered Oil Dri's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Oil Dri is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Oil Dri is based on 3 months time horizon.
Oil Dri Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Oil Dri is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Oil Dri backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Oil Dri, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.11 | 2.41 | 0.02 | 0.18 | 9 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
58.26 | 59.13 | 0.03 |
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Oil Dri Hype Timeline
On the 23rd of January Oil Dri is traded for 58.26. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.18. Oil is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 59.13 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.03%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.11%. The volatility of related hype on Oil Dri is about 150.81%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 58.08. The company reported the last year's revenue of 485.57 M. Total Income to common stockholders was 54 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 137.8 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Oil Dri to cross-verify your projections.Oil Dri Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Oil Dri's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Oil Dri's future price movements. Getting to know how Oil Dri's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Oil Dri may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GPRE | Green Plains Renewable | (0.30) | 10 per month | 4.19 | 0.02 | 7.63 | (5.62) | 27.29 | |
| WLKP | Westlake Chemical Partners | (16.21) | 38 per month | 1.19 | 0.03 | 2.81 | (1.86) | 8.30 | |
| KRO | Kronos Worldwide | 0.19 | 8 per month | 2.70 | 0.06 | 5.58 | (4.70) | 12.10 | |
| SCL | Stepan Company | (0.24) | 10 per month | 1.38 | 0.12 | 3.48 | (2.57) | 7.15 | |
| CMP | Compass Minerals International | (0.46) | 10 per month | 3.18 | 0.12 | 4.98 | (3.43) | 19.48 | |
| LWLG | Lightwave Logic | 0.19 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 9.03 | (9.16) | 31.90 | |
| SLI | Standard Lithium | (0.20) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 6.93 | (7.11) | 20.22 | |
| IAUX | i 80 Gold Corp | 0.05 | 6 per month | 3.54 | 0.22 | 5.62 | (5.15) | 14.98 | |
| ASPI | ASP Isotopes Common | 0.46 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 16.16 | (10.23) | 28.83 | |
| NEXA | Nexa Resources SA | 0.54 | 9 per month | 1.89 | 0.32 | 6.86 | (3.52) | 14.63 |
Other Forecasting Options for Oil Dri
For every potential investor in Oil, whether a beginner or expert, Oil Dri's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Oil Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Oil. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Oil Dri's price trends.Oil Dri Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Oil Dri stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Oil Dri could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Oil Dri by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Oil Dri Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Oil Dri stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Oil Dri shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Oil Dri stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Oil Dri entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Oil Dri Risk Indicators
The analysis of Oil Dri's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Oil Dri's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting oil stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.66 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.87 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.47 | |||
| Variance | 6.08 | |||
| Downside Variance | 8.55 | |||
| Semi Variance | 8.26 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.63) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Oil Dri
The number of cover stories for Oil Dri depends on current market conditions and Oil Dri's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Oil Dri is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Oil Dri's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Oil Dri Short Properties
Oil Dri's future price predictability will typically decrease when Oil Dri's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Oil Dri often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Oil Dri's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Oil Dri's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 16.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 50.5 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Oil Dri to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Oil Stock refer to our How to Trade Oil Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Center module to all portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios.
Is Household Products space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Oil Dri. If investors know Oil will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Oil Dri listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.06) | Dividend Share 0.67 | Earnings Share 3.63 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.06) |
The market value of Oil Dri is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Oil that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Oil Dri's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Oil Dri's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Oil Dri's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Oil Dri's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Oil Dri's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Oil Dri is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Oil Dri's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.