Outset Medical Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

OM Stock  USD 5.11  0.29  5.37%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Outset Medical on the next trading day is expected to be 6.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.79 and the sum of the absolute errors of 49.10. Outset Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Outset Medical's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Outset Medical's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Outset Medical fundamentals over time.
As of now the relative strength index (rsi) of Outset Medical's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Outset Medical's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Outset Medical and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Outset Medical's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Outset Medical, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Outset Medical's stock price prediction:
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
(0.58)
EPS Estimate Current Year
(4.45)
EPS Estimate Next Year
(2.66)
Wall Street Target Price
11.75
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
(0.66)
Using Outset Medical hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Outset Medical from the perspective of Outset Medical response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Outset Medical using Outset Medical's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Outset using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Outset Medical's stock price.

Outset Medical Implied Volatility

    
  2.22  
Outset Medical's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Outset Medical stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Outset Medical's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Outset Medical stock will not fluctuate a lot when Outset Medical's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Outset Medical on the next trading day is expected to be 6.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.79 and the sum of the absolute errors of 49.10.

Outset Medical after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 5.2  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Outset Medical to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Outset Stock, please use our How to Invest in Outset Medical guide.

Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Outset Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Outset Medical's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Outset Medical's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Outset Medical stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Outset Medical's open interest, investors have to compare it to Outset Medical's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Outset Medical is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Outset. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.

Outset Medical Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Outset price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Outset using various technical indicators. When you analyze Outset charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

Outset Medical Cash Forecast

Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Outset Medical's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
 
Cash  
First Reported
2019-03-31
Previous Quarter
39.6 M
Current Value
36.4 M
Quarterly Volatility
105.1 M
 
Covid
A naive forecasting model for Outset Medical is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Outset Medical value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Outset Medical Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Outset Medical on the next trading day is expected to be 6.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.79, mean absolute percentage error of 1.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 49.10.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Outset Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Outset Medical's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Outset Medical Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Outset MedicalOutset Medical Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Outset Medical Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Outset Medical's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Outset Medical's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.05 and 14.78, respectively. We have considered Outset Medical's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
5.11
6.41
Expected Value
14.78
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Outset Medical stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Outset Medical stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.0016
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.7919
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.1427
SAESum of the absolute errors49.0972
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Outset Medical. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Outset Medical. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Outset Medical

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Outset Medical. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.265.2013.56
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.346.7215.08
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
10.6911.7513.04
Details

Outset Medical After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Outset Medical at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Outset Medical or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Outset Medical, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Outset Medical Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Outset Medical's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Outset Medical's historical news coverage. Outset Medical's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.26 and 13.56, respectively. We have considered Outset Medical's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
5.11
5.20
After-hype Price
13.56
Upside
Outset Medical is risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Outset Medical is based on 3 months time horizon.

Outset Medical Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Outset Medical is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Outset Medical backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Outset Medical, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  1.25 
8.36
  0.09 
  0.12 
9 Events / Month
6 Events / Month
In about 9 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
5.11
5.20
1.76 
11,943  
Notes

Outset Medical Hype Timeline

As of January 24, 2026 Outset Medical is listed for 5.11. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.09, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.12. Outset is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 5.2 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 1.76%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -1.25%. The volatility of related hype on Outset Medical is about 8618.56%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 4.99. The company generated the yearly revenue of 113.69 M. Annual Net Loss to common stockholders was (127.98 M) with gross profit of 45.32 M. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 9 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Outset Medical to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Outset Stock, please use our How to Invest in Outset Medical guide.

Outset Medical Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Outset Medical's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Outset Medical's future price movements. Getting to know how Outset Medical's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Outset Medical may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
SNWVSANUWAVE Health Common 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.09) 4.52 (5.63) 26.31 
HSDTHelius Medical Technologies(0.13)6 per month 0.00 (0.13) 11.52 (11.78) 27.63 
NNOXNano X Imaging(0.13)3 per month 0.00 (0.06) 9.44 (6.06) 36.87 
INGNInogen Inc(0.13)18 per month 0.00 (0.20) 4.24 (3.89) 19.47 
QTRXQuanterix Corp(0.13)18 per month 3.49  0.04  8.16 (5.66) 32.49 
CATXPerspective Therapeutics(0.13)3 per month 0.00 (0.04) 6.25 (7.83) 26.95 
VMDViemed Healthcare(0.13)3 per month 1.60  0.02  3.15 (2.79) 8.29 
OMIOwens Minor 0.01 7 per month 0.00 (0.17) 6.88 (13.10) 27.99 
TNYATenaya Therapeutics(0.07)8 per month 0.00 (0.18) 9.02 (11.04) 51.79 
SIShoulder Innovations(0.13)10 per month 10.10  0.1  6.84 (5.61) 354.03 

Other Forecasting Options for Outset Medical

For every potential investor in Outset, whether a beginner or expert, Outset Medical's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Outset Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Outset. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Outset Medical's price trends.

Outset Medical Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Outset Medical stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Outset Medical could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Outset Medical by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Outset Medical Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Outset Medical stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Outset Medical shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Outset Medical stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Outset Medical entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Outset Medical Risk Indicators

The analysis of Outset Medical's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Outset Medical's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting outset stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Outset Medical

The number of cover stories for Outset Medical depends on current market conditions and Outset Medical's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Outset Medical is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Outset Medical's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Outset Medical Short Properties

Outset Medical's future price predictability will typically decrease when Outset Medical's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Outset Medical often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Outset Medical's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Outset Medical's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding3.5 M
Cash And Short Term Investments158.7 M
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Outset Medical to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Outset Stock, please use our How to Invest in Outset Medical guide.
You can also try the Premium Stories module to follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope.
Is Health Care Equipment & Supplies space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Outset Medical. If investors know Outset will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Outset Medical listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share
(11.56)
Revenue Per Share
10.395
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.027
Return On Assets
(0.15)
Return On Equity
(0.92)
The market value of Outset Medical is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Outset that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Outset Medical's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Outset Medical's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Outset Medical's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Outset Medical's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Outset Medical's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Outset Medical is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Outset Medical's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.