ON Semiconductor Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| ON Stock | USD 59.89 2.31 3.71% |
ON Semiconductor Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although ON Semiconductor's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of ON Semiconductor's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of ON Semiconductor fundamentals over time.
As of today, The relative strength index (RSI) of ON Semiconductor's share price is at 53. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling ON Semiconductor, making its price go up or down. Momentum 53
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.33) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.6198 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.3426 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.9281 | Wall Street Target Price 63 |
Using ON Semiconductor hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of ON Semiconductor from the perspective of ON Semiconductor response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards ON Semiconductor using ON Semiconductor's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards ON Semiconductor using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of ON Semiconductor's stock price.
ON Semiconductor Short Interest
An investor who is long ON Semiconductor may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about ON Semiconductor and may potentially protect profits, hedge ON Semiconductor with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 50.9043 | Short Percent 0.143 | Short Ratio 3.73 | Shares Short Prior Month 35.4 M | 50 Day MA 55.7738 |
ON Semiconductor Relative Strength Index
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of ON Semiconductor on the next trading day is expected to be 59.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.26 and the sum of the absolute errors of 75.87.ON Semiconductor Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to ON Semiconductor's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in ON Semiconductor. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding ON Semiconductor can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around ON Semiconductor. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of ON Semiconductor's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about ON Semiconductor.
ON Semiconductor Implied Volatility | 0.62 |
ON Semiconductor's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of ON Semiconductor stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if ON Semiconductor's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that ON Semiconductor stock will not fluctuate a lot when ON Semiconductor's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of ON Semiconductor on the next trading day is expected to be 59.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.26 and the sum of the absolute errors of 75.87. ON Semiconductor after-hype prediction price | USD 59.76 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
ON Semiconductor | Build AI portfolio with ON Semiconductor Stock |
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current ON Semiconductor contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that ON Semiconductor will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0388% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With ON Semiconductor trading at USD 59.89, that is roughly USD 0.0232 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating ON Semiconductor's daily price movement you should consider acquiring ON Semiconductor options at the current volatility level of 0.62%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 ON Semiconductor Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast ON Semiconductor's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in ON Semiconductor's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for ON Semiconductor stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current ON Semiconductor's open interest, investors have to compare it to ON Semiconductor's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of ON Semiconductor is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in ON Semiconductor. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
ON Semiconductor Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine ON Semiconductor price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for ON Semiconductor using various technical indicators. When you analyze ON Semiconductor charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
ON Semiconductor Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 1st of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of ON Semiconductor on the next trading day is expected to be 59.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.26, mean absolute percentage error of 2.80, and the sum of the absolute errors of 75.87.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ON Semiconductor Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ON Semiconductor's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
ON Semiconductor Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest ON Semiconductor | ON Semiconductor Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
ON Semiconductor Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting ON Semiconductor's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ON Semiconductor's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 57.10 and 62.68, respectively. We have considered ON Semiconductor's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ON Semiconductor stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ON Semiconductor stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.302 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.2721 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.2644 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0227 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 75.865 |
Predictive Modules for ON Semiconductor
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ON Semiconductor. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.ON Semiconductor After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of ON Semiconductor at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in ON Semiconductor or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of ON Semiconductor, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
ON Semiconductor Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting ON Semiconductor's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on ON Semiconductor's historical news coverage. ON Semiconductor's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 56.97 and 62.55, respectively. We have considered ON Semiconductor's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
ON Semiconductor is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of ON Semiconductor is based on 3 months time horizon.
ON Semiconductor Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as ON Semiconductor is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading ON Semiconductor backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with ON Semiconductor, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.32 | 2.79 | 0.13 | 0.17 | 10 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
59.89 | 59.76 | 0.22 |
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ON Semiconductor Hype Timeline
As of January 31, 2026 ON Semiconductor is listed for 59.89. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.13, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.17. ON Semiconductor is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 59.76. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decline on the next news is expected to be -0.22%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.32%. The volatility of related hype on ON Semiconductor is about 516.67%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 59.72. About 100.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of ON Semiconductor was now reported as 19.5. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.98. ON Semiconductor had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 10:1 split on the 11th of March 2014. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ON Semiconductor to cross-verify your projections.ON Semiconductor Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to ON Semiconductor's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict ON Semiconductor's future price movements. Getting to know how ON Semiconductor's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how ON Semiconductor may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| STM | STMicroelectronics NV ADR | (0.08) | 6 per month | 1.58 | 0.11 | 5.16 | (2.91) | 10.54 | |
| UMC | United Microelectronics | (0.01) | 10 per month | 2.47 | 0.14 | 7.50 | (4.26) | 24.73 | |
| GFS | Globalfoundries | (2.30) | 27 per month | 2.05 | 0.12 | 5.58 | (3.85) | 10.94 | |
| TYL | Tyler Technologies | (3.86) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.25) | 1.45 | (3.99) | 7.89 | |
| SSNC | SSC Technologies Holdings | (1.55) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 1.52 | (2.13) | 4.96 | |
| ENTG | Entegris | 0.08 | 10 per month | 2.79 | 0.13 | 6.74 | (4.46) | 12.30 | |
| CDW | CDW Corp | 0.31 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 2.31 | (3.34) | 10.15 | |
| CHKP | Check Point Software | (0.01) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.18 | (2.74) | 9.86 | |
| TOST | Toast Inc | 0.80 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 4.14 | (4.25) | 16.25 | |
| J | Jacobs Solutions | 1.22 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 2.18 | (2.47) | 11.86 |
Other Forecasting Options for ON Semiconductor
For every potential investor in ON Semiconductor, whether a beginner or expert, ON Semiconductor's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ON Semiconductor Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ON Semiconductor. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ON Semiconductor's price trends.ON Semiconductor Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ON Semiconductor stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ON Semiconductor could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ON Semiconductor by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
ON Semiconductor Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ON Semiconductor stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ON Semiconductor shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ON Semiconductor stock market strength indicators, traders can identify ON Semiconductor entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 679802.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.73) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.96 | |||
| Day Median Price | 60.67 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 60.41 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (1.93) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (2.31) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 53.9 |
ON Semiconductor Risk Indicators
The analysis of ON Semiconductor's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ON Semiconductor's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting on semiconductor stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.06 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.96 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.71 | |||
| Variance | 7.32 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.72 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.85 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.46) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for ON Semiconductor
The number of cover stories for ON Semiconductor depends on current market conditions and ON Semiconductor's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that ON Semiconductor is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about ON Semiconductor's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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ON Semiconductor Short Properties
ON Semiconductor's future price predictability will typically decrease when ON Semiconductor's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of ON Semiconductor often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential ON Semiconductor's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ON Semiconductor's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 432.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 3 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ON Semiconductor to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in ON Semiconductor Stock, please use our How to Invest in ON Semiconductor guide.You can also try the Portfolio Anywhere module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.
Will Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment sector continue expanding? Could ON Semiconductor diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of ON Semiconductor. Anticipated expansion of ON Semiconductor directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every ON Semiconductor data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.33) | Earnings Share 0.73 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.12) | Return On Assets |
Understanding ON Semiconductor requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects ON Semiconductor's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what ON Semiconductor's is actually worth based on fundamentals—guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push ON Semiconductor's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between ON Semiconductor's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding ON Semiconductor should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. In contrast, ON Semiconductor's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.