Old National Stock Forward View
| ONB Stock | USD 24.91 0.48 1.96% |
Old Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Old National stock prices and determine the direction of Old National Bancorp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Old National's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Old National's stock price is about 65. This indicates that the stock is rather overbought by investors at the present time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Old, making its price go up or down. Momentum 65
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.172 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.6164 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.6053 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.8693 | Wall Street Target Price 27.3333 |
Using Old National hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Old National Bancorp from the perspective of Old National response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Old National using Old National's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Old using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Old National's stock price.
Old National Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Old National's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Old. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Old National stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 21.7726 | Short Percent 0.0633 | Short Ratio 7.95 | Shares Short Prior Month 18.7 M | 50 Day MA 22.7228 |
Old Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Old National Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 25.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.28 and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.81.Old National Bancorp Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Old National's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Old. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Old can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Old National Bancorp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Old National's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Old National.
Old National Implied Volatility | 0.78 |
Old National's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Old National Bancorp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Old National's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Old National stock will not fluctuate a lot when Old National's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Old National Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 25.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.28 and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.81. Old National after-hype prediction price | USD 25.2 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Old National to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Old contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Old National Bancorp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0488% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Old National trading at USD 24.91, that is roughly USD 0.0121 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Old National's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Old National Bancorp options at the current volatility level of 0.78%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Old Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Old National's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Old National's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Old National stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Old National's open interest, investors have to compare it to Old National's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Old National is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Old. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Old National Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Old price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Old using various technical indicators. When you analyze Old charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Old National Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Old National's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 1989-06-30 | Previous Quarter 1.7 B | Current Value 591.6 M | Quarterly Volatility 344.9 M |
Old National Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 4th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Old National Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 25.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.28, mean absolute percentage error of 0.12, and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.81.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Old Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Old National's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Old National Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Old National | Old National Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Old National Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Old National's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Old National's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 23.53 and 26.82, respectively. We have considered Old National's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Old National stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Old National stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.0181 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2756 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0125 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 16.8139 |
Predictive Modules for Old National
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Old National Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Old National After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Old National at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Old National or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Old National, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Old National Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Old National's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Old National's historical news coverage. Old National's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 23.56 and 26.84, respectively. We have considered Old National's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Old National is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Old National Bancorp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Old National Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Old National is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Old National backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Old National, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.33 | 1.64 | 0.29 | 0.07 | 8 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
24.91 | 25.20 | 1.16 |
|
Old National Hype Timeline
On the 3rd of February Old National Bancorp is traded for 24.91. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.29, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.07. Old is estimated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 25.2 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 184.27%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 1.16%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.33%. The volatility of related hype on Old National is about 803.92%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 24.98. The company reported the last year's revenue of 3.71 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 539.19 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 2.3 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Old National to cross-verify your projections.Old National Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Old National's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Old National's future price movements. Getting to know how Old National's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Old National may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| UMBF | UMB Financial | (0.87) | 10 per month | 1.08 | 0.1 | 3.61 | (1.53) | 6.43 | |
| CFR | CullenFrost Bankers | 1.83 | 9 per month | 0.80 | 0.11 | 3.15 | (1.29) | 7.64 | |
| WTFC | Wintrust Financial | 3.12 | 8 per month | 1.14 | 0.12 | 2.62 | (1.57) | 8.80 | |
| ZION | Zions Bancorporation | (1.44) | 9 per month | 1.13 | 0.14 | 2.58 | (1.58) | 8.08 | |
| BPOP | Popular | 0.63 | 10 per month | 1.39 | 0.16 | 2.90 | (2.44) | 6.73 | |
| WAL | Western Alliance Bancorporation | 1.07 | 7 per month | 1.68 | 0.09 | 3.88 | (2.96) | 10.08 | |
| CBSH | Commerce Bancshares | 0.01 | 8 per month | 1.19 | 0.03 | 2.40 | (2.03) | 6.30 | |
| SSB | SouthState | (0.51) | 35 per month | 0.80 | 0.14 | 2.93 | (1.50) | 5.16 | |
| PNFP | Pinnacle Financial Partners | (1.24) | 8 per month | 1.49 | 0.1 | 3.19 | (2.01) | 8.67 | |
| CADE | Cadence Bancorp | (0.56) | 7 per month | 1.49 | 0.08 | 3.30 | (2.25) | 10.36 |
Other Forecasting Options for Old National
For every potential investor in Old, whether a beginner or expert, Old National's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Old Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Old. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Old National's price trends.Old National Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Old National stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Old National could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Old National by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Old National Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Old National stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Old National shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Old National stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Old National Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Old National Risk Indicators
The analysis of Old National's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Old National's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting old stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.16 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.07 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.6 | |||
| Variance | 2.56 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.96 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.14 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.36) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Old National
The number of cover stories for Old National depends on current market conditions and Old National's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Old National is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Old National's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Old National Short Properties
Old National's future price predictability will typically decrease when Old National's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Old National Bancorp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Old National's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Old National's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 389.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.8 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Old National to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Equity Analysis module to research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Old National. Anticipated expansion of Old directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Old National assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.172 | Dividend Share 0.56 | Earnings Share 1.83 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.414 |
Understanding Old National Bancorp requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Old's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what Old National's is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Old National's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Old National's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Old National should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. In contrast, Old National's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.