Umb Financial Stock Price Prediction
| UMBF Stock | USD 120.30 2.26 1.84% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
59
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.126 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.0478 | EPS Estimate Current Year 9.3052 | EPS Estimate Next Year 11.4264 | Wall Street Target Price 138.6667 |
Using UMB Financial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of UMB Financial from the perspective of UMB Financial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards UMB Financial using UMB Financial's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards UMB using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of UMB Financial's stock price.
UMB Financial Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in UMB Financial's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards UMB. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of UMB Financial stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 100.8067 | Short Percent 0.095 | Short Ratio 7.91 | Shares Short Prior Month 3.4 M | 50 Day MA 119.5518 |
UMB Financial Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to UMB Financial's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in UMB. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding UMB can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around UMB Financial. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of UMB Financial's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about UMB Financial.
UMB Financial Implied Volatility | 0.6 |
UMB Financial's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of UMB Financial stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if UMB Financial's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that UMB Financial stock will not fluctuate a lot when UMB Financial's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in UMB Financial to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying UMB because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
UMB Financial after-hype prediction price | USD 119.74 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current UMB contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that UMB Financial will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0375% per day over the life of the 2025-03-21 option contract. With UMB Financial trading at USD 120.3, that is roughly USD 0.0451 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating UMB Financial's daily price movement you should consider acquiring UMB Financial options at the current volatility level of 0.6%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
UMB |
UMB Financial After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of UMB Financial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in UMB Financial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of UMB Financial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
UMB Financial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting UMB Financial's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on UMB Financial's historical news coverage. UMB Financial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 117.39 and 122.09, respectively. We have considered UMB Financial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
UMB Financial is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of UMB Financial is based on 3 months time horizon.
UMB Financial Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as UMB Financial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading UMB Financial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with UMB Financial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.21 | 2.35 | 0.56 | 0.02 | 9 Events / Month | 13 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
120.30 | 119.74 | 0.47 |
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UMB Financial Hype Timeline
UMB Financial is at this time traded for 120.30. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.56, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. UMB is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 119.74. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 87.69%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.47%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.21%. The volatility of related hype on UMB Financial is about 2335.4%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 120.32. About 91.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 1.73. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. UMB Financial has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.73. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 9.0. The firm last dividend was issued on the 10th of December 2024. UMB Financial had 2:1 split on the 31st of May 2006. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out UMB Financial Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.UMB Financial Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to UMB Financial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict UMB Financial's future price movements. Getting to know how UMB Financial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how UMB Financial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
UMB Financial Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine UMB price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for UMB using various technical indicators. When you analyze UMB charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About UMB Financial Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of UMB Financial stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as UMB Financial, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of UMB Financial based on analysis of UMB Financial hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to UMB Financial's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to UMB Financial's related companies. | 2022 | 2024 (projected) | PTB Ratio | 1.51 | 1.18 | Price To Sales Ratio | 18.19 | 2.53 |
Story Coverage note for UMB Financial
The number of cover stories for UMB Financial depends on current market conditions and UMB Financial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that UMB Financial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about UMB Financial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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UMB Financial Short Properties
UMB Financial's future price predictability will typically decrease when UMB Financial's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of UMB Financial often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential UMB Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. UMB Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 49.1 M | |
| Dividends Paid | -74.2 M | |
| Forward Annual Dividend Rate | 1.6 | |
| Shares Float | 45.8 M |
Complementary Tools for UMB Stock analysis
When running UMB Financial's price analysis, check to measure UMB Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy UMB Financial is operating at the current time. Most of UMB Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of UMB Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move UMB Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of UMB Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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