OP Bancorp Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing

OPBK Stock  USD 13.98  0.11  0.79%   
OPBK Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although OP Bancorp's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of OP Bancorp's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of OP Bancorp fundamentals over time.
As of now, the relative strength index (RSI) of OP Bancorp's share price is approaching 49. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling OP Bancorp, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 49

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of OP Bancorp's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with OP Bancorp, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting OP Bancorp's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.425
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.445
EPS Estimate Current Year
1.845
EPS Estimate Next Year
2.075
Wall Street Target Price
16.5
Using OP Bancorp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of OP Bancorp from the perspective of OP Bancorp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards OP Bancorp using OP Bancorp's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards OPBK using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of OP Bancorp's stock price.

OP Bancorp Implied Volatility

    
  1.02  
OP Bancorp's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of OP Bancorp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if OP Bancorp's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that OP Bancorp stock will not fluctuate a lot when OP Bancorp's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of OP Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 13.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.16.

OP Bancorp after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 13.98  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of OP Bancorp to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy OPBK Stock please use our How to buy in OPBK Stock guide.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current OPBK contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that OP Bancorp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0638% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With OP Bancorp trading at USD 13.98, that is roughly USD 0.008912 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating OP Bancorp's daily price movement you should consider acquiring OP Bancorp options at the current volatility level of 1.02%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.

Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 OPBK Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast OP Bancorp's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in OP Bancorp's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for OP Bancorp stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current OP Bancorp's open interest, investors have to compare it to OP Bancorp's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of OP Bancorp is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in OPBK. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.

OP Bancorp Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine OPBK price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for OPBK using various technical indicators. When you analyze OPBK charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
OP Bancorp simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for OP Bancorp are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as OP Bancorp prices get older.

OP Bancorp Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 1st of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of OP Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 13.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.16.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict OPBK Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that OP Bancorp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

OP Bancorp Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest OP Bancorp  OP Bancorp Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

OP Bancorp Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting OP Bancorp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. OP Bancorp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 12.10 and 15.86, respectively. We have considered OP Bancorp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
13.98
13.98
Expected Value
15.86
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of OP Bancorp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent OP Bancorp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.4371
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0121
MADMean absolute deviation0.183
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0131
SAESum of the absolute errors11.16
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting OP Bancorp forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent OP Bancorp observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for OP Bancorp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as OP Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
12.1013.9815.86
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
13.3315.2117.09
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
13.4914.2114.94
Details
2 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
15.0216.5018.32
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as OP Bancorp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against OP Bancorp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, OP Bancorp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in OP Bancorp.

OP Bancorp After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of OP Bancorp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in OP Bancorp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of OP Bancorp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

OP Bancorp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting OP Bancorp's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on OP Bancorp's historical news coverage. OP Bancorp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 12.10 and 15.86, respectively. We have considered OP Bancorp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
13.98
13.98
After-hype Price
15.86
Upside
OP Bancorp is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of OP Bancorp is based on 3 months time horizon.

OP Bancorp Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as OP Bancorp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading OP Bancorp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with OP Bancorp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.11 
1.88
 0.00  
  0.05 
9 Events / Month
6 Events / Month
In about 9 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
13.98
13.98
0.00 
9,400  
Notes

OP Bancorp Hype Timeline

OP Bancorp is now traded for 13.98. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.05. OPBK is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.11%. %. The volatility of related hype on OP Bancorp is about 453.01%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 14.03. About 22.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.91. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. OP Bancorp last dividend was issued on the 5th of February 2026. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of OP Bancorp to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy OPBK Stock please use our How to buy in OPBK Stock guide.

OP Bancorp Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to OP Bancorp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict OP Bancorp's future price movements. Getting to know how OP Bancorp's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how OP Bancorp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
CBNAChain Bridge Bancorp(0.25)9 per month 2.20  0.05  3.33 (4.46) 10.70 
MNSBMainstreet Bank 0.22 10 per month 1.33  0.06  2.63 (2.64) 8.15 
FSFGFirst Savings Financial 0.34 7 per month 1.32  0.03  2.61 (1.96) 9.58 
AVBHAvidbank Holdings Common(0.02)24 per month 0.84  0.02  1.75 (1.60) 6.08 
FCCOFirst Community(0.24)8 per month 1.07  0.03  2.21 (2.29) 6.74 
HWBKHawthorn Bancshares 0.74 11 per month 2.15  0.07  4.04 (4.01) 12.58 
FRAFFranklin Financial Services 3.31 9 per month 2.22  0.04  3.20 (2.67) 15.31 
EFSIEagle Financial Services 0.14 21 per month 1.02 (0.01) 2.36 (1.65) 5.83 
LCNBLCNB Corporation(0.02)8 per month 1.37  0.07  2.81 (2.13) 8.02 
ATLOAmes National(0.07)9 per month 0.55  0.21  2.71 (1.32) 5.33 

Other Forecasting Options for OP Bancorp

For every potential investor in OPBK, whether a beginner or expert, OP Bancorp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. OPBK Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in OPBK. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying OP Bancorp's price trends.

OP Bancorp Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with OP Bancorp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of OP Bancorp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing OP Bancorp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

OP Bancorp Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how OP Bancorp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading OP Bancorp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying OP Bancorp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify OP Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

OP Bancorp Risk Indicators

The analysis of OP Bancorp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in OP Bancorp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting opbk stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for OP Bancorp

The number of cover stories for OP Bancorp depends on current market conditions and OP Bancorp's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that OP Bancorp is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about OP Bancorp's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
When determining whether OP Bancorp is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if OPBK Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Op Bancorp Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Op Bancorp Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of OP Bancorp to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy OPBK Stock please use our How to buy in OPBK Stock guide.
You can also try the Premium Stories module to follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of OP Bancorp. Anticipated expansion of OPBK directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive OP Bancorp assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.425
Dividend Share
0.48
Earnings Share
1.72
Revenue Per Share
6.125
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.203
OP Bancorp's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on OPBK's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate OP Bancorp's intrinsic value—its true economic worth—which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Since OP Bancorp's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between OP Bancorp's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding OP Bancorp should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. However, OP Bancorp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.