Orient Rental Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| ORM Stock | 11.80 0.17 1.42% |
Orient Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of today the value of rsi of Orient Rental's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Orient Rental hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Orient Rental Modaraba from the perspective of Orient Rental response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Orient Rental Modaraba on the next trading day is expected to be 12.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29 and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.91. Orient Rental after-hype prediction price | PKR 11.97 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Orient |
Orient Rental Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Orient price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Orient using various technical indicators. When you analyze Orient charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Orient Rental Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 7th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Orient Rental Modaraba on the next trading day is expected to be 12.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29, mean absolute percentage error of 0.16, and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.91.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Orient Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Orient Rental's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Orient Rental Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Orient Rental | Orient Rental Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Orient Rental Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Orient Rental's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Orient Rental's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.59 and 14.50, respectively. We have considered Orient Rental's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Orient Rental stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Orient Rental stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.2517 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2935 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0243 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 17.9051 |
Predictive Modules for Orient Rental
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Orient Rental Modaraba. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Orient Rental After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Orient Rental at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Orient Rental or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Orient Rental, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Orient Rental Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Orient Rental's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Orient Rental's historical news coverage. Orient Rental's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 10.01 and 13.93, respectively. We have considered Orient Rental's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Orient Rental is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Orient Rental Modaraba is based on 3 months time horizon.
Orient Rental Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Orient Rental is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Orient Rental backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Orient Rental, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.01 | 1.95 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
11.80 | 11.97 | 0.00 |
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Orient Rental Hype Timeline
Orient Rental Modaraba is now traded for 11.80on Karachi Stock Exchange of Pakistan. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Orient is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.01%. %. The volatility of related hype on Orient Rental is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 11.80. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next projected press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Orient Rental to cross-verify your projections.Orient Rental Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Orient Rental's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Orient Rental's future price movements. Getting to know how Orient Rental's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Orient Rental may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MSOT | Masood Textile Mills | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.16 | 0.07 | 10.00 | (5.99) | 18.25 | |
| FFL | Fauji Foods | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.22 | 0.06 | 3.28 | (2.14) | 13.46 | |
| KSBP | KSB Pumps | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.59 | (2.30) | 12.24 | |
| MARI | Mari Energies | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 1.76 | (1.34) | 4.52 | |
| LOADS | Loads | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.10 | (2.87) | 9.03 | |
| THCCL | Thatta Cement | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 3.79 | (5.56) | 17.56 | |
| KAPCO | KOT Addu Power | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.56 | 0.08 | 3.07 | (1.35) | 12.63 | |
| REWM | Reliance Weaving Mills | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.92 | 0.09 | 9.88 | (6.96) | 20.00 |
Other Forecasting Options for Orient Rental
For every potential investor in Orient, whether a beginner or expert, Orient Rental's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Orient Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Orient. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Orient Rental's price trends.Orient Rental Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Orient Rental stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Orient Rental could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Orient Rental by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Orient Rental Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Orient Rental stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Orient Rental shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Orient Rental stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Orient Rental Modaraba entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 559.95 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.59) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 11.85 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 11.83 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.13) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.17) |
Orient Rental Risk Indicators
The analysis of Orient Rental's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Orient Rental's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting orient stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.39 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.91 | |||
| Variance | 3.66 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Orient Rental
The number of cover stories for Orient Rental depends on current market conditions and Orient Rental's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Orient Rental is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Orient Rental's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for Orient Stock Analysis
When running Orient Rental's price analysis, check to measure Orient Rental's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Orient Rental is operating at the current time. Most of Orient Rental's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Orient Rental's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Orient Rental's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Orient Rental to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.