Orion Group Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| ORN Stock | USD 12.05 0.03 0.25% |
Orion Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Orion Group's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Orion Group's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Orion Group fundamentals over time.
As of today, The relative strength momentum indicator of Orion Group's share price is at 59. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Orion Group, making its price go up or down. Momentum 59
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.33) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.0267 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.206 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.3346 | Wall Street Target Price 13.125 |
Using Orion Group hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Orion Group Holdings from the perspective of Orion Group response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Orion Group using Orion Group's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Orion using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Orion Group's stock price.
Orion Group Short Interest
An investor who is long Orion Group may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Orion Group and may potentially protect profits, hedge Orion Group with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 8.729 | Short Percent 0.0472 | Short Ratio 8.85 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.9 M | 50 Day MA 10.4468 |
Orion Relative Strength Index
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Orion Group Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 11.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.55 and the sum of the absolute errors of 33.63.Orion Group Holdings Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Orion Group's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Orion. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Orion can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Orion Group Holdings. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Orion Group's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Orion Group.
Orion Group Implied Volatility | 1.34 |
Orion Group's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Orion Group Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Orion Group's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Orion Group stock will not fluctuate a lot when Orion Group's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Orion Group Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 11.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.55 and the sum of the absolute errors of 33.63. Orion Group after-hype prediction price | USD 12.05 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Orion Group to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Orion contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Orion Group Holdings will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0838% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Orion Group trading at USD 12.05, that is roughly USD 0.0101 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Orion Group's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Orion Group Holdings options at the current volatility level of 1.34%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Orion Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Orion Group's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Orion Group's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Orion Group stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Orion Group's open interest, investors have to compare it to Orion Group's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Orion Group is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Orion. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Orion Group Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Orion price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Orion using various technical indicators. When you analyze Orion charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Orion Group Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 31st of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Orion Group Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 11.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.55, mean absolute percentage error of 0.45, and the sum of the absolute errors of 33.63.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Orion Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Orion Group's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Orion Group Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Orion Group | Orion Group Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Orion Group Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Orion Group's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Orion Group's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8.00 and 14.63, respectively. We have considered Orion Group's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Orion Group stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Orion Group stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.3173 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5513 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0528 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 33.628 |
Predictive Modules for Orion Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Orion Group Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Orion Group After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Orion Group at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Orion Group or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Orion Group, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Orion Group Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Orion Group's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Orion Group's historical news coverage. Orion Group's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 8.76 and 15.34, respectively. We have considered Orion Group's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Orion Group is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Orion Group Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
Orion Group Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Orion Group is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Orion Group backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Orion Group, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.23 | 3.32 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 11 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
12.05 | 12.05 | 0.00 |
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Orion Group Hype Timeline
On the 30th of January Orion Group Holdings is traded for 12.05. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.04. Orion is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.23%. %. The volatility of related hype on Orion Group is about 1908.05%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 12.09. About 84.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Orion Group was now reported as 3.96. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.62. Orion Group Holdings had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 40:1 split on the 21st of December 2012. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Orion Group to cross-verify your projections.Orion Group Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Orion Group's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Orion Group's future price movements. Getting to know how Orion Group's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Orion Group may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MTRX | Matrix Service Co | 0.81 | 28 per month | 4.45 | 0 | 3.71 | (4.06) | 21.68 | |
| BBCP | Concrete Pumping Holdings | 0.06 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.51 | (4.43) | 15.27 | |
| SWBI | Smith Wesson Brands | 0.13 | 11 per month | 1.91 | 0.03 | 4.08 | (2.73) | 25.97 | |
| FBYD | Falcons Beyond Global | 0.13 | 19 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 19.89 | (15.43) | 45.53 | |
| BYRN | Byrna Technologies | 0.06 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 4.35 | (5.41) | 12.95 | |
| EBF | Ennis Inc | 0.05 | 16 per month | 1.09 | 0.12 | 2.20 | (1.93) | 6.77 | |
| EVTL | Vertical Aerospace | 0.38 | 3 per month | 5.18 | 0.02 | 9.38 | (6.45) | 32.52 | |
| SRTA | Strata Critical Medical | 0.05 | 9 per month | 3.47 | 0.01 | 6.22 | (6.74) | 23.54 | |
| ULH | Universal Logistics Holdings | 0.06 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 8.52 | (6.63) | 18.95 | |
| PKE | Park Electrochemical | 0.01 | 6 per month | 1.40 | 0.13 | 4.71 | (2.80) | 13.02 |
Other Forecasting Options for Orion Group
For every potential investor in Orion, whether a beginner or expert, Orion Group's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Orion Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Orion. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Orion Group's price trends.Orion Group Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Orion Group stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Orion Group could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Orion Group by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Orion Group Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Orion Group stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Orion Group shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Orion Group stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Orion Group Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Orion Group Risk Indicators
The analysis of Orion Group's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Orion Group's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting orion stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.82 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.62 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.11 | |||
| Variance | 16.92 | |||
| Downside Variance | 8.84 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.85 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.68) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Orion Group
The number of cover stories for Orion Group depends on current market conditions and Orion Group's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Orion Group is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Orion Group's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Orion Group Short Properties
Orion Group's future price predictability will typically decrease when Orion Group's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Orion Group Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Orion Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Orion Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 34.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 28.3 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Orion Group to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.
Will Construction & Engineering sector continue expanding? Could Orion diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Orion Group. Anticipated expansion of Orion directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Orion Group data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.33) | Earnings Share 0.27 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.01) | Return On Assets |
Understanding Orion Group Holdings requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Orion's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what Orion Group's is actually worth based on fundamentals—guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Orion Group's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Orion Group's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Orion Group should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. In contrast, Orion Group's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.