Bank Ozk Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

OZK Stock  USD 47.06  0.26  0.56%   
Bank Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Bank Ozk's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Bank Ozk's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Bank Ozk fundamentals over time.
As of now, The relative strength index (RSI) of Bank Ozk's share price is at 52. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Bank Ozk, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 52

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Bank Ozk's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Bank Ozk, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Bank Ozk's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.02)
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
1.4885
EPS Estimate Current Year
5.9927
EPS Estimate Next Year
6.4728
Wall Street Target Price
53.7778
Using Bank Ozk hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Bank Ozk from the perspective of Bank Ozk response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Bank Ozk using Bank Ozk's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Bank using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Bank Ozk's stock price.

Bank Ozk Short Interest

An investor who is long Bank Ozk may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Bank Ozk and may potentially protect profits, hedge Bank Ozk with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
47.5053
Short Percent
0.1499
Short Ratio
13.92
Shares Short Prior Month
15.4 M
50 Day MA
46.711

Bank Relative Strength Index

The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Bank Ozk on the next trading day is expected to be 46.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.61 and the sum of the absolute errors of 37.25.

Bank Ozk Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Bank Ozk's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Bank. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Bank can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Bank Ozk. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Bank Ozk's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Bank Ozk.

Bank Ozk Implied Volatility

    
  0.46  
Bank Ozk's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Bank Ozk stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Bank Ozk's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Bank Ozk stock will not fluctuate a lot when Bank Ozk's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Bank Ozk on the next trading day is expected to be 46.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.61 and the sum of the absolute errors of 37.25.

Bank Ozk after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 46.8  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bank Ozk to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Bank Stock please use our How to buy in Bank Stock guide.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Bank contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Bank Ozk will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0288% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Bank Ozk trading at USD 47.06, that is roughly USD 0.0135 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Bank Ozk's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Bank Ozk options at the current volatility level of 0.46%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.

Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Bank Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Bank Ozk's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Bank Ozk's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Bank Ozk stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Bank Ozk's open interest, investors have to compare it to Bank Ozk's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Bank Ozk is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Bank. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.

Bank Ozk Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Bank price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Bank using various technical indicators. When you analyze Bank charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

Bank Ozk Cash Forecast

To forecast cash or other financial indicators, analysts must employ diverse statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. This approach allows them to detect underlying patterns in the Bank Ozk's financial statements, predicting their influence on future market prices.
 
Cash  
First Reported
1997-03-31
Previous Quarter
2.7 B
Current Value
3.1 B
Quarterly Volatility
801.7 M
 
Dot-com Bubble
 
Housing Crash
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
 
Interest Hikes
A naive forecasting model for Bank Ozk is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Bank Ozk value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Bank Ozk Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Bank Ozk on the next trading day is expected to be 46.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.61, mean absolute percentage error of 0.56, and the sum of the absolute errors of 37.25.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bank Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bank Ozk's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Bank Ozk Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Bank Ozk  Bank Ozk Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Bank Ozk Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Bank Ozk's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bank Ozk's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 44.78 and 47.60, respectively. We have considered Bank Ozk's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
47.06
46.19
Expected Value
47.60
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bank Ozk stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bank Ozk stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.5219
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.6107
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0133
SAESum of the absolute errors37.2541
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Bank Ozk. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Bank Ozk. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Bank Ozk

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bank Ozk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
45.3946.8048.21
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
44.6846.0847.49
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
45.4346.9948.56
Details
9 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
48.9453.7859.69
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Bank Ozk. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Bank Ozk's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Bank Ozk's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Bank Ozk.

Bank Ozk After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Bank Ozk at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Bank Ozk or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Bank Ozk, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Bank Ozk Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Bank Ozk's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Bank Ozk's historical news coverage. Bank Ozk's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 45.39 and 48.21, respectively. We have considered Bank Ozk's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
47.06
46.80
After-hype Price
48.21
Upside
Bank Ozk is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Bank Ozk is based on 3 months time horizon.

Bank Ozk Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Bank Ozk is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Bank Ozk backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Bank Ozk, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.10 
1.41
 0.00  
  0.01 
9 Events / Month
6 Events / Month
In about 9 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
47.06
46.80
0.00 
14,100  
Notes

Bank Ozk Hype Timeline

On the 29th of January Bank Ozk is traded for 47.06. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.01. Bank is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.1%. %. The volatility of related hype on Bank Ozk is about 1866.18%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 47.07. About 97.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.89. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Bank Ozk has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.76. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 6.2. The firm last dividend was issued on the 13th of January 2026. Bank Ozk had 2:1 split on the 24th of June 2014. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bank Ozk to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Bank Stock please use our How to buy in Bank Stock guide.

Bank Ozk Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Bank Ozk's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Bank Ozk's future price movements. Getting to know how Bank Ozk's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Bank Ozk may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
UBSIUnited Bankshares 0.06 11 per month 0.99  0.14  3.05 (1.94) 8.75 
HWCHancock Whitney Corp 0.49 10 per month 0.80  0.17  2.85 (1.12) 7.32 
IFSIntercorp Financial Services 1.80 18 per month 1.35  0.12  3.68 (2.88) 5.62 
AVALGrupo Aval(0.16)9 per month 1.55  0.15  4.39 (3.23) 7.37 
ABCBAmeris Bancorp(1.08)11 per month 1.07  0.06  2.71 (1.87) 6.79 
HOMBHome BancShares(0.04)9 per month 1.15  0  2.16 (1.75) 6.91 
AXAxos Financial(0.67)10 per month 1.47  0.10  3.18 (2.60) 8.23 
FNBFNB Corp 0.42 8 per month 1.16  0.09  2.90 (2.05) 8.60 
VLYValley National Bancorp(0.14)10 per month 1.32  0.11  3.26 (2.20) 8.87 

Other Forecasting Options for Bank Ozk

For every potential investor in Bank, whether a beginner or expert, Bank Ozk's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bank Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bank. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bank Ozk's price trends.

Bank Ozk Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Bank Ozk stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Bank Ozk could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Bank Ozk by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Bank Ozk Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bank Ozk stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bank Ozk shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bank Ozk stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Bank Ozk entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Bank Ozk Risk Indicators

The analysis of Bank Ozk's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bank Ozk's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bank stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Bank Ozk

The number of cover stories for Bank Ozk depends on current market conditions and Bank Ozk's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Bank Ozk is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Bank Ozk's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
When determining whether Bank Ozk is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Bank Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Bank Ozk Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Bank Ozk Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bank Ozk to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Bank Stock please use our How to buy in Bank Stock guide.
You can also try the Portfolio Anywhere module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Bank Ozk. Anticipated expansion of Bank directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Bank Ozk assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.02)
Dividend Share
1.74
Earnings Share
6.2
Revenue Per Share
13.79
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.04
The market value of Bank Ozk is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Bank that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Bank Ozk's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Bank Ozk's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Bank Ozk's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Bank Ozk's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Bank Ozk's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Bank Ozk should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Meanwhile, Bank Ozk's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.