Valley National Bancorp Stock Price Prediction
| VLY Stock | USD 10.78 0.22 2.08% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
62
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.33) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.19 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.6476 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.9114 | Wall Street Target Price 10.8 |
Using Valley National hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Valley National Bancorp from the perspective of Valley National response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Valley National to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Valley because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Valley National after-hype prediction price | USD 10.62 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Valley |
Valley National After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Valley National at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Valley National or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Valley National, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Valley National Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Valley National's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Valley National's historical news coverage. Valley National's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 8.16 and 13.08, respectively. We have considered Valley National's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Valley National is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Valley National Bancorp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Valley National Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Valley National is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Valley National backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Valley National, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.41 | 2.49 | 0.07 | 0.33 | 7 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
10.78 | 10.62 | 0.57 |
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Valley National Hype Timeline
On the 26th of November Valley National Bancorp is traded for 10.78. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.07, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.33. Valley is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 10.62 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.57%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.41%. The volatility of related hype on Valley National is about 309.7%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 10.45. The company reported the last year's revenue of 1.82 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 498.51 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 1.79 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Valley National Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Valley National Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Valley National's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Valley National's future price movements. Getting to know how Valley National's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Valley National may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FULT | Fulton Financial | (0.39) | 8 per month | 1.61 | 0.07 | 3.05 | (2.66) | 21.09 | |
| WBS | Webster Financial | (1.96) | 10 per month | 1.41 | 0.13 | 3.93 | (2.69) | 22.25 | |
| UBSI | United Bankshares | (0.66) | 10 per month | 1.20 | 0.06 | 3.39 | (2.10) | 15.76 | |
| FNB | FNB Corp | (0.44) | 10 per month | 1.42 | 0.08 | 2.95 | (2.10) | 18.86 | |
| TRMK | Trustmark | (0.57) | 10 per month | 1.12 | 0.10 | 3.11 | (2.48) | 16.27 |
Valley National Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Valley price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Valley using various technical indicators. When you analyze Valley charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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About Valley National Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Valley National stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Valley National Bancorp, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Valley National based on analysis of Valley National hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Valley National's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Valley National's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0343 | 0.0399 | 0.0435 | 0.0338 | Price To Sales Ratio | 4.1 | 2.95 | 3.02 | 4.97 |
Story Coverage note for Valley National
The number of cover stories for Valley National depends on current market conditions and Valley National's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Valley National is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Valley National's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Valley National Short Properties
Valley National's future price predictability will typically decrease when Valley National's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Valley National Bancorp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Valley National's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Valley National's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 509.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 891.2 M |
Additional Tools for Valley Stock Analysis
When running Valley National's price analysis, check to measure Valley National's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Valley National is operating at the current time. Most of Valley National's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Valley National's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Valley National's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Valley National to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.