PDD Holdings Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| PDD Stock | USD 106.02 0.10 0.09% |
The Simple Regression forecasted value of PDD Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 104.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.33 and the sum of the absolute errors of 325.30. PDD Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast PDD Holdings stock prices and determine the direction of PDD Holdings's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of PDD Holdings' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the value of rsi of PDD Holdings' share price is below 20 indicating that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.165 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 19.0911 | EPS Estimate Current Year 75.5701 | EPS Estimate Next Year 87.1028 | Wall Street Target Price 148.6447 |
Using PDD Holdings hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of PDD Holdings from the perspective of PDD Holdings response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards PDD Holdings using PDD Holdings' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards PDD using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of PDD Holdings' stock price.
PDD Holdings Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in PDD Holdings' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards PDD. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of PDD Holdings stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 115.7808 | Short Percent 0.0321 | Short Ratio 3.66 | Shares Short Prior Month 28.6 M | 50 Day MA 116.902 |
PDD Holdings Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to PDD Holdings' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in PDD. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding PDD can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around PDD Holdings. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
PDD Holdings Implied Volatility | 0.45 |
PDD Holdings' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of PDD Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if PDD Holdings' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that PDD Holdings stock will not fluctuate a lot when PDD Holdings' options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of PDD Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 104.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.33 and the sum of the absolute errors of 325.30. PDD Holdings after-hype prediction price | USD 106.02 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of PDD Holdings to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current PDD contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that PDD Holdings will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0281% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With PDD Holdings trading at USD 106.02, that is roughly USD 0.0298 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating PDD Holdings' daily price movement you should consider acquiring PDD Holdings options at the current volatility level of 0.45%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 PDD Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast PDD Holdings' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in PDD Holdings' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for PDD Holdings stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current PDD Holdings' open interest, investors have to compare it to PDD Holdings' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of PDD Holdings is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in PDD. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
PDD Holdings Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine PDD price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for PDD using various technical indicators. When you analyze PDD charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
PDD Holdings Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of PDD Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 104.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.33, mean absolute percentage error of 41.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 325.30.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict PDD Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that PDD Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
PDD Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest PDD Holdings | PDD Holdings Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
PDD Holdings Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting PDD Holdings' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. PDD Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 102.72 and 106.58, respectively. We have considered PDD Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of PDD Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent PDD Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.8248 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 5.3328 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0446 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 325.2995 |
Predictive Modules for PDD Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as PDD Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of PDD Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
PDD Holdings After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of PDD Holdings at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in PDD Holdings or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of PDD Holdings, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
PDD Holdings Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting PDD Holdings' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on PDD Holdings' historical news coverage. PDD Holdings' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 104.04 and 108.00, respectively. We have considered PDD Holdings' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
PDD Holdings is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of PDD Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
PDD Holdings Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as PDD Holdings is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading PDD Holdings backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with PDD Holdings, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.41 | 1.93 | 0.81 | 2.09 | 12 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 12 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
106.02 | 106.02 | 0.00 |
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PDD Holdings Hype Timeline
On the 23rd of January PDD Holdings is traded for 106.02. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.81, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 2.09. PDD is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 97.97%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.41%. %. The volatility of related hype on PDD Holdings is about 37.84%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 108.11. About 33.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of PDD Holdings was at this time reported as 40.17. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.13. PDD Holdings recorded earning per share (EPS) of 9.89. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 12 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of PDD Holdings to cross-verify your projections.PDD Holdings Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to PDD Holdings' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict PDD Holdings' future price movements. Getting to know how PDD Holdings' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how PDD Holdings may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TJX | The TJX Companies | 1.26 | 7 per month | 0.71 | 0 | 1.98 | (1.56) | 4.64 | |
| MCD | McDonalds | 4.21 | 6 per month | 0.97 | (0.09) | 2.16 | (1.49) | 4.64 | |
| BKNG | Booking Holdings | 4.00 | 11 per month | 1.53 | (0.04) | 2.94 | (2.40) | 7.64 | |
| MELI | MercadoLibre | 46.25 | 8 per month | 2.66 | 0.01 | 3.81 | (3.55) | 14.15 | |
| LOW | Lowes Companies | (0.85) | 6 per month | 1.21 | 0.06 | 3.71 | (2.36) | 7.59 | |
| JD | JD Inc Adr | (0.20) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 2.89 | (2.77) | 7.60 | |
| SE | Sea | 0.51 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 3.52 | (4.28) | 12.26 | |
| EBAY | eBay Inc | (1.07) | 9 per month | 3.20 | (0.01) | 2.97 | (3.16) | 19.83 | |
| DKS | Dicks Sporting Goods | (2.86) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 3.13 | (3.41) | 14.16 | |
| TM | Toyota Motor | (0.25) | 5 per month | 1.38 | 0.08 | 3.16 | (2.32) | 8.06 |
Other Forecasting Options for PDD Holdings
For every potential investor in PDD, whether a beginner or expert, PDD Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. PDD Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in PDD. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying PDD Holdings' price trends.PDD Holdings Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with PDD Holdings stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of PDD Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing PDD Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
PDD Holdings Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how PDD Holdings stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading PDD Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying PDD Holdings stock market strength indicators, traders can identify PDD Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
PDD Holdings Risk Indicators
The analysis of PDD Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in PDD Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting pdd stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.4 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.96 | |||
| Variance | 3.85 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for PDD Holdings
The number of cover stories for PDD Holdings depends on current market conditions and PDD Holdings' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that PDD Holdings is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about PDD Holdings' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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PDD Holdings Short Properties
PDD Holdings' future price predictability will typically decrease when PDD Holdings' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of PDD Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential PDD Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. PDD Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.5 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 331.6 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of PDD Holdings to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade PDD Stock refer to our How to Trade PDD Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.
Is Broadline Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of PDD Holdings. If investors know PDD will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about PDD Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.165 | Earnings Share 9.89 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.09 | Return On Assets |
The market value of PDD Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of PDD that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of PDD Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is PDD Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because PDD Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect PDD Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between PDD Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if PDD Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, PDD Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.