Phillips Edison Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| PECO Stock | USD 37.82 0.60 1.61% |
Phillips Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Phillips Edison's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Phillips Edison's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Phillips Edison fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of Phillips Edison's share price is below 20 indicating that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.076 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.1259 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.6087 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.677 | Wall Street Target Price 40 |
Using Phillips Edison hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Phillips Edison Co from the perspective of Phillips Edison response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Phillips Edison using Phillips Edison's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Phillips using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Phillips Edison's stock price.
Phillips Edison Short Interest
An investor who is long Phillips Edison may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Phillips Edison and may potentially protect profits, hedge Phillips Edison with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 34.9392 | Short Percent 0.0295 | Short Ratio 2.52 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.8 M | 50 Day MA 35.3899 |
Phillips Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Phillips Edison Co on the next trading day is expected to be 37.82 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.38.Phillips Edison Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Phillips Edison's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Phillips. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Phillips can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Phillips Edison Co. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Phillips Edison's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Phillips Edison.
Phillips Edison Implied Volatility | 0.66 |
Phillips Edison's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Phillips Edison Co stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Phillips Edison's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Phillips Edison stock will not fluctuate a lot when Phillips Edison's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Phillips Edison Co on the next trading day is expected to be 37.82 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.38. Phillips Edison after-hype prediction price | USD 37.84 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Phillips Edison to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Phillips contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Phillips Edison Co will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0413% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Phillips Edison trading at USD 37.82, that is roughly USD 0.0156 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Phillips Edison's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Phillips Edison Co options at the current volatility level of 0.66%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Phillips Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Phillips Edison's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Phillips Edison's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Phillips Edison stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Phillips Edison's open interest, investors have to compare it to Phillips Edison's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Phillips Edison is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Phillips. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Phillips Edison Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Phillips price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Phillips using various technical indicators. When you analyze Phillips charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Phillips Edison Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 7th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Phillips Edison Co on the next trading day is expected to be 37.82 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25, mean absolute percentage error of 0.10, and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.38.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Phillips Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Phillips Edison's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Phillips Edison Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Phillips Edison | Phillips Edison Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Phillips Edison Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Phillips Edison's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Phillips Edison's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 36.90 and 38.74, respectively. We have considered Phillips Edison's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Phillips Edison stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Phillips Edison stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.852 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0531 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2521 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0071 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 15.38 |
Predictive Modules for Phillips Edison
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Phillips Edison. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Phillips Edison's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Phillips Edison After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Phillips Edison at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Phillips Edison or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Phillips Edison, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Phillips Edison Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Phillips Edison's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Phillips Edison's historical news coverage. Phillips Edison's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 36.92 and 38.76, respectively. We have considered Phillips Edison's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Phillips Edison is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Phillips Edison is based on 3 months time horizon.
Phillips Edison Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Phillips Edison is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Phillips Edison backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Phillips Edison, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.15 | 0.92 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 12 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 12 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
37.82 | 37.84 | 0.05 |
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Phillips Edison Hype Timeline
Phillips Edison is at this time traded for 37.82. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. Phillips is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 37.84 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.05%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.15%. The volatility of related hype on Phillips Edison is about 745.95%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 37.84. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 661.39 M. Net Income was 62.69 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 506.78 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 12 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Phillips Edison to cross-verify your projections.Phillips Edison Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Phillips Edison's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Phillips Edison's future price movements. Getting to know how Phillips Edison's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Phillips Edison may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MAC | Macerich Company | 0.09 | 9 per month | 1.36 | 0.11 | 2.66 | (2.25) | 7.29 | |
| SKT | Tanger Factory Outlet | 0.13 | 17 per month | 1.08 | 0 | 2.15 | (1.73) | 5.56 | |
| REG | Regency Centers | (0.03) | 10 per month | 0.72 | 0.11 | 2.10 | (1.32) | 3.69 | |
| KRG | Kite Realty Group | 0.05 | 9 per month | 0.77 | 0.13 | 2.11 | (1.78) | 5.39 | |
| EPR | EPR Properties | 0.61 | 8 per month | 0.82 | 0.16 | 2.43 | (1.59) | 6.04 | |
| ABR | Arbor Realty Trust | 0.08 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 3.39 | (4.81) | 12.62 | |
| SBRA | Sabra Healthcare REIT | (0.05) | 8 per month | 0.95 | 0.08 | 2.08 | (1.68) | 6.08 | |
| SHO | Sunstone Hotel Investors | 0.1 | 8 per month | 1.64 | 0.01 | 2.40 | (2.77) | 8.32 | |
| CUZ | Cousins Properties Incorporated | 0.13 | 12 per month | 1.35 | (0.01) | 2.32 | (2.57) | 6.78 |
Other Forecasting Options for Phillips Edison
For every potential investor in Phillips, whether a beginner or expert, Phillips Edison's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Phillips Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Phillips. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Phillips Edison's price trends.Phillips Edison Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Phillips Edison stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Phillips Edison could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Phillips Edison by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Phillips Edison Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Phillips Edison stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Phillips Edison shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Phillips Edison stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Phillips Edison Co entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 28863.87 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.8824 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.02 | |||
| Day Median Price | 37.55 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 37.64 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.57 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.6 |
Phillips Edison Risk Indicators
The analysis of Phillips Edison's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Phillips Edison's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting phillips stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7184 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.4175 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.8925 | |||
| Variance | 0.7966 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.4378 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.1743 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.87) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Phillips Edison
The number of cover stories for Phillips Edison depends on current market conditions and Phillips Edison's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Phillips Edison is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Phillips Edison's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Phillips Edison Short Properties
Phillips Edison's future price predictability will typically decrease when Phillips Edison's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Phillips Edison Co often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Phillips Edison's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Phillips Edison's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 136.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4.9 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Phillips Edison to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Piotroski F Score module to get Piotroski F Score based on the binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals.
Will Retail REITs sector continue expanding? Could Phillips diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Phillips Edison. Anticipated expansion of Phillips directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Phillips Edison data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.076 | Dividend Share 1.236 | Earnings Share 0.67 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.104 |
Understanding Phillips Edison requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Phillips's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value - what Phillips Edison's is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Phillips Edison's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Phillips Edison's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Phillips Edison should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. In contrast, Phillips Edison's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.