Progressive Corp Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| PGR Stock | USD 208.00 0.26 0.12% |
Progressive Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Progressive Corp's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Progressive Corp's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Progressive Corp fundamentals over time.
As of today, The relative strength indicator of Progressive Corp's share price is at 51 indicating that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Progressive Corp, making its price go up or down. Momentum 51
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.252 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 4.3922 | EPS Estimate Current Year 15.8766 | EPS Estimate Next Year 16.1953 | Wall Street Target Price 245.98 |
Using Progressive Corp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Progressive Corp from the perspective of Progressive Corp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Progressive Corp using Progressive Corp's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Progressive using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Progressive Corp's stock price.
Progressive Corp Short Interest
An investor who is long Progressive Corp may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Progressive Corp and may potentially protect profits, hedge Progressive Corp with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 243.3733 | Short Percent 0.0116 | Short Ratio 2.02 | Shares Short Prior Month 6.3 M | 50 Day MA 219.9004 |
Progressive Relative Strength Index
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Progressive Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 210.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.87 and the sum of the absolute errors of 236.10.Progressive Corp Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Progressive Corp's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Progressive. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Progressive can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Progressive Corp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Progressive Corp's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Progressive Corp.
Progressive Corp Implied Volatility | 0.43 |
Progressive Corp's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Progressive Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Progressive Corp's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Progressive Corp stock will not fluctuate a lot when Progressive Corp's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Progressive Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 210.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.87 and the sum of the absolute errors of 236.10. Progressive Corp after-hype prediction price | USD 208.26 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Progressive | Build AI portfolio with Progressive Stock |
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Progressive contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Progressive Corp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0269% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Progressive Corp trading at USD 208.0, that is roughly USD 0.0559 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Progressive Corp's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Progressive Corp options at the current volatility level of 0.43%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Progressive Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Progressive Corp's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Progressive Corp's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Progressive Corp stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Progressive Corp's open interest, investors have to compare it to Progressive Corp's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Progressive Corp is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Progressive. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Progressive Corp Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Progressive price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Progressive using various technical indicators. When you analyze Progressive charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Progressive Corp Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 3rd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Progressive Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 210.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.87, mean absolute percentage error of 24.23, and the sum of the absolute errors of 236.10.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Progressive Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Progressive Corp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Progressive Corp Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Progressive Corp | Progressive Corp Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Progressive Corp Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Progressive Corp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Progressive Corp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 209.01 and 211.73, respectively. We have considered Progressive Corp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Progressive Corp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Progressive Corp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.298 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.8705 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0185 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 236.1001 |
Predictive Modules for Progressive Corp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Progressive Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Progressive Corp After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Progressive Corp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Progressive Corp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Progressive Corp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Progressive Corp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Progressive Corp's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Progressive Corp's historical news coverage. Progressive Corp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 206.86 and 209.66, respectively. We have considered Progressive Corp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Progressive Corp is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Progressive Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Progressive Corp Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Progressive Corp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Progressive Corp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Progressive Corp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.10 | 1.36 | 0.19 | 0.02 | 9 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
208.00 | 208.26 | 0.12 |
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Progressive Corp Hype Timeline
On the 2nd of February Progressive Corp is traded for 208.00. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.19, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. Progressive is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 208.26 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 71.96%. The price gain on the next news is projected to be 0.12%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.1%. The volatility of related hype on Progressive Corp is about 719.58%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 208.02. The company reported the last year's revenue of 79.91 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 8.48 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 16.25 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Progressive Corp to cross-verify your projections.Progressive Corp Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Progressive Corp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Progressive Corp's future price movements. Getting to know how Progressive Corp's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Progressive Corp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GXRFF | Prospera Energy | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 10.70 | (9.67) | 38.06 | |
| FHTX | Foghorn Therapeutics | (0.04) | 9 per month | 4.28 | 0.11 | 9.16 | (5.56) | 31.12 | |
| PYXS | Pyxis Oncology | (0.02) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 17.05 | (15.41) | 70.66 | |
| MRK | Merck Company | 0.42 | 7 per month | 1.13 | 0.19 | 3.59 | (1.98) | 8.09 | |
| USSTX | Tax Exempt Short Term | 2.28 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.39) | 0.19 | (0.10) | 0.39 | |
| JDDSF | JD Sports Fashion | (2.61) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 0.00 | (0.87) | 22.36 | |
| NEMTF | Nemetschek SE | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 33.70 | |
| AA | Alcoa Corp | 1.42 | 8 per month | 2.69 | 0.16 | 6.40 | (5.54) | 14.55 | |
| JDSPY | JD Sports Fashion | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 6.19 | (6.25) | 15.07 | |
| ALLE | Allegion PLC | 0.44 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.15 | (1.99) | 5.10 |
Other Forecasting Options for Progressive Corp
For every potential investor in Progressive, whether a beginner or expert, Progressive Corp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Progressive Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Progressive. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Progressive Corp's price trends.Progressive Corp Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Progressive Corp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Progressive Corp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Progressive Corp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Progressive Corp Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Progressive Corp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Progressive Corp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Progressive Corp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Progressive Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Progressive Corp Risk Indicators
The analysis of Progressive Corp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Progressive Corp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting progressive stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.02 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.39 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.41 | |||
| Variance | 2.0 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.1 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.93 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.06) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Progressive Corp
The number of cover stories for Progressive Corp depends on current market conditions and Progressive Corp's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Progressive Corp is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Progressive Corp's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Progressive Corp Short Properties
Progressive Corp's future price predictability will typically decrease when Progressive Corp's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Progressive Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Progressive Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Progressive Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 588.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 92.8 B |
Additional Tools for Progressive Stock Analysis
When running Progressive Corp's price analysis, check to measure Progressive Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Progressive Corp is operating at the current time. Most of Progressive Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Progressive Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Progressive Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Progressive Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.