Pharming Group Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| PHAR Stock | USD 16.36 0.11 0.67% |
Pharming Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Pharming Group's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Pharming Group's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Pharming Group fundamentals over time.
As of today, the RSI of Pharming Group's share price is approaching 36 indicating that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Pharming Group, making its price go up or down. Momentum 36
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.61) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0) | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.0125 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.0495 | Wall Street Target Price 31 |
Using Pharming Group hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Pharming Group NV from the perspective of Pharming Group response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Pharming Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Pharming Group NV on the next trading day is expected to be 16.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.53 and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.84.Pharming Group NV Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Pharming Group's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Pharming. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Pharming can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Pharming Group NV. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Pharming Group's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Pharming Group.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Pharming Group NV on the next trading day is expected to be 16.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.53 and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.84. Pharming Group after-hype prediction price | USD 16.36 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Pharming Group to cross-verify your projections. Pharming Group Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Pharming price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Pharming using various technical indicators. When you analyze Pharming charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Pharming Group Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 22nd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Pharming Group NV on the next trading day is expected to be 16.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.53, mean absolute percentage error of 0.60, and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.84.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Pharming Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Pharming Group's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Pharming Group Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Pharming Group | Pharming Group Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Pharming Group Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Pharming Group's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Pharming Group's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 12.11 and 20.61, respectively. We have considered Pharming Group's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Pharming Group stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Pharming Group stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.7666 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0127 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5307 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0304 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 31.84 |
Predictive Modules for Pharming Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Pharming Group NV. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Pharming Group After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Pharming Group at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Pharming Group or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Pharming Group, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Pharming Group Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Pharming Group's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Pharming Group's historical news coverage. Pharming Group's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 12.11 and 20.61, respectively. We have considered Pharming Group's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Pharming Group is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Pharming Group NV is based on 3 months time horizon.
Pharming Group Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Pharming Group is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Pharming Group backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Pharming Group, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.02 | 4.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
16.36 | 16.36 | 0.00 |
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Pharming Group Hype Timeline
Pharming Group NV is at this time traded for 16.36. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Pharming is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.02%. %. The volatility of related hype on Pharming Group is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 16.36. The book value of the company was at this time reported as 0.53. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Pharming Group to cross-verify your projections.Pharming Group Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Pharming Group's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Pharming Group's future price movements. Getting to know how Pharming Group's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Pharming Group may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| KLDO | Kaleido Biosciences | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4,998 | |
| IVBT | Innovation1 Biotech | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| XENO | Xeno Transplants | 0.00 | 1 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| CALA | Calithera Biosciences | 0.00 | 0 per month | 20.34 | 0.13 | 100.00 | (50.00) | 280.00 | |
| NMRD | Nemaura Medical | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 50.00 | |
| SYVC | Synovics Pharmaceuticals | 0.00 | 2 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| SNNAQ | Sienna Biopharmaceuticals | 0.00 | 1 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| FPMI | Fluoropharma Medical | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100.00 |
Other Forecasting Options for Pharming Group
For every potential investor in Pharming, whether a beginner or expert, Pharming Group's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Pharming Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Pharming. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Pharming Group's price trends.Pharming Group Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Pharming Group stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Pharming Group could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Pharming Group by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Pharming Group Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Pharming Group stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Pharming Group shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Pharming Group stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Pharming Group NV entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Pharming Group Risk Indicators
The analysis of Pharming Group's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Pharming Group's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting pharming stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.92 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.45 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.17 | |||
| Variance | 17.4 | |||
| Downside Variance | 21.2 | |||
| Semi Variance | 19.78 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.88) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Pharming Group
The number of cover stories for Pharming Group depends on current market conditions and Pharming Group's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Pharming Group is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Pharming Group's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Pharming Group Short Properties
Pharming Group's future price predictability will typically decrease when Pharming Group's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Pharming Group NV often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Pharming Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Pharming Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 68.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 167.9 M |
Additional Tools for Pharming Stock Analysis
When running Pharming Group's price analysis, check to measure Pharming Group's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Pharming Group is operating at the current time. Most of Pharming Group's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Pharming Group's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Pharming Group's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Pharming Group to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.