PrimeEnergy Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

PNRG Stock  USD 168.54  8.62  4.87%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of PrimeEnergy on the next trading day is expected to be 168.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.47 and the sum of the absolute errors of 268.29. PrimeEnergy Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of PrimeEnergy's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 23rd of January 2026 the value of relative strength index of PrimeEnergy's share price is below 20 indicating that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of PrimeEnergy's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of PrimeEnergy and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from PrimeEnergy's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with PrimeEnergy, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting PrimeEnergy's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.50)
EPS Estimate Current Year
17.49
EPS Estimate Next Year
5.57
Wall Street Target Price
160
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.33)
Using PrimeEnergy hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of PrimeEnergy from the perspective of PrimeEnergy response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.

PrimeEnergy Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to PrimeEnergy's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in PrimeEnergy. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding PrimeEnergy can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around PrimeEnergy. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of PrimeEnergy on the next trading day is expected to be 168.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.47 and the sum of the absolute errors of 268.29.

PrimeEnergy after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 168.15  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of PrimeEnergy to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in PrimeEnergy Stock please use our How to Invest in PrimeEnergy guide.

PrimeEnergy Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine PrimeEnergy price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for PrimeEnergy using various technical indicators. When you analyze PrimeEnergy charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
PrimeEnergy simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for PrimeEnergy are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as PrimeEnergy prices get older.

PrimeEnergy Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of PrimeEnergy on the next trading day is expected to be 168.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.47, mean absolute percentage error of 33.50, and the sum of the absolute errors of 268.29.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict PrimeEnergy Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that PrimeEnergy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

PrimeEnergy Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest PrimeEnergyPrimeEnergy Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

PrimeEnergy Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting PrimeEnergy's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. PrimeEnergy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 164.96 and 172.12, respectively. We have considered PrimeEnergy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
168.54
164.96
Downside
168.54
Expected Value
172.12
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of PrimeEnergy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent PrimeEnergy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.7842
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.2858
MADMean absolute deviation4.4715
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0274
SAESum of the absolute errors268.29
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting PrimeEnergy forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent PrimeEnergy observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for PrimeEnergy

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as PrimeEnergy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
164.57168.15171.73
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
134.69138.27185.39
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
160.30176.16192.01
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
4.374.374.37
Details

PrimeEnergy After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of PrimeEnergy at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in PrimeEnergy or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of PrimeEnergy, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

PrimeEnergy Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting PrimeEnergy's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on PrimeEnergy's historical news coverage. PrimeEnergy's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 164.57 and 171.73, respectively. We have considered PrimeEnergy's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
168.54
164.57
Downside
168.15
After-hype Price
171.73
Upside
PrimeEnergy is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of PrimeEnergy is based on 3 months time horizon.

PrimeEnergy Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as PrimeEnergy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading PrimeEnergy backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with PrimeEnergy, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.24 
3.58
  0.39 
  0.02 
9 Events / Month
7 Events / Month
In about 9 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
168.54
168.15
0.23 
222.36  
Notes

PrimeEnergy Hype Timeline

PrimeEnergy is at this time traded for 168.54. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.39, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. PrimeEnergy is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 168.15. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.23%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.24%. The volatility of related hype on PrimeEnergy is about 4313.25%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 168.52. About 70.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.35. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. PrimeEnergy recorded earning per share (EPS) of 10.46. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 9 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of PrimeEnergy to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in PrimeEnergy Stock please use our How to Invest in PrimeEnergy guide.

PrimeEnergy Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to PrimeEnergy's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict PrimeEnergy's future price movements. Getting to know how PrimeEnergy's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how PrimeEnergy may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
AMPYAmplify Energy Corp 0.17 12 per month 3.30  0.03  6.16 (4.62) 17.71 
IMPPImperial Petroleum(0.26)9 per month 0.00 (0.05) 6.24 (6.67) 43.25 
INRInfinity Natural Resources 0.38 10 per month 2.03  0.07  4.29 (3.43) 19.95 
REIRing Energy(0.01)11 per month 1.72  0.02  5.32 (3.09) 16.88 
HUSAHUSA Old(0.22)10 per month 0.00 (0.29) 7.08 (11.54) 44.49 
OMSEOMS Energy Technologies(0.13)8 per month 3.94  0.08  9.86 (6.97) 32.04 
KGEIKolibri Global Energy(0.01)8 per month 0.00 (0.16) 3.85 (4.46) 11.55 
BRYBerry Petroleum Corp(0.05)19 per month 0.00 (0.19) 2.46 (4.20) 8.78 
VALValaris(0.52)8 per month 2.37  0.04  3.76 (3.39) 20.91 
TOYOTOYO Co Ltd(0.18)9 per month 0.00 (0.05) 5.81 (4.99) 15.80 

Other Forecasting Options for PrimeEnergy

For every potential investor in PrimeEnergy, whether a beginner or expert, PrimeEnergy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. PrimeEnergy Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in PrimeEnergy. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying PrimeEnergy's price trends.

PrimeEnergy Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with PrimeEnergy stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of PrimeEnergy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing PrimeEnergy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

PrimeEnergy Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how PrimeEnergy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading PrimeEnergy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying PrimeEnergy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify PrimeEnergy entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

PrimeEnergy Risk Indicators

The analysis of PrimeEnergy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in PrimeEnergy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting primeenergy stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for PrimeEnergy

The number of cover stories for PrimeEnergy depends on current market conditions and PrimeEnergy's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that PrimeEnergy is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about PrimeEnergy's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

PrimeEnergy Short Properties

PrimeEnergy's future price predictability will typically decrease when PrimeEnergy's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of PrimeEnergy often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential PrimeEnergy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. PrimeEnergy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding2.5 M
Cash And Short Term Investments2.5 M
When determining whether PrimeEnergy is a strong investment it is important to analyze PrimeEnergy's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact PrimeEnergy's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding PrimeEnergy Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of PrimeEnergy to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in PrimeEnergy Stock please use our How to Invest in PrimeEnergy guide.
You can also try the Piotroski F Score module to get Piotroski F Score based on the binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals.
Is Oil & Gas Exploration & Production space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of PrimeEnergy. If investors know PrimeEnergy will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about PrimeEnergy listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.50)
Earnings Share
10.46
Revenue Per Share
116.839
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.33)
Return On Assets
0.0611
The market value of PrimeEnergy is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of PrimeEnergy that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of PrimeEnergy's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is PrimeEnergy's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because PrimeEnergy's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect PrimeEnergy's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between PrimeEnergy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if PrimeEnergy is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, PrimeEnergy's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.