Permian Resources Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing

PR Stock  USD 16.05  0.51  3.28%   
Permian Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The value of RSI of Permian Resources' stock price is slightly above 68 indicating that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of today. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Permian, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 68

 Buy Stretched

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Permian Resources' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Permian Resources and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Permian Resources' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Permian Resources, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Permian Resources hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Permian Resources from the perspective of Permian Resources response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Permian Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 16.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.11.

Permian Resources after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 16.05  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Permian Resources to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Permian Stock, please use our How to Invest in Permian Resources guide.

Permian Resources Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Permian price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Permian using various technical indicators. When you analyze Permian charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Permian Resources works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Permian Resources Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Permian Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 16.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22, mean absolute percentage error of 0.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.11.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Permian Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Permian Resources' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Permian Resources Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Permian Resources  Permian Resources Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Permian Resources Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Permian Resources' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Permian Resources' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 14.01 and 17.99, respectively. We have considered Permian Resources' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
16.05
16.00
Expected Value
17.99
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Permian Resources stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Permian Resources stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0232
MADMean absolute deviation0.2222
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0159
SAESum of the absolute errors13.1101
When Permian Resources prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Permian Resources trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Permian Resources observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Permian Resources

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Permian Resources. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
14.0616.0518.04
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
13.0515.0417.03
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
13.1714.3715.56
Details

Permian Resources After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Permian Resources at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Permian Resources or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Permian Resources, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Permian Resources Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Permian Resources' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Permian Resources' historical news coverage. Permian Resources' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 14.06 and 18.04, respectively. We have considered Permian Resources' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
16.05
16.05
After-hype Price
18.04
Upside
Permian Resources is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Permian Resources is based on 3 months time horizon.

Permian Resources Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Permian Resources is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Permian Resources backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Permian Resources, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.44 
1.99
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
Within a week
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
16.05
16.05
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Permian Resources Hype Timeline

As of January 29, 2026 Permian Resources is listed for 16.05. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Permian is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.44%. %. The volatility of related hype on Permian Resources is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 16.05. About 97.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.15. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Permian Resources last dividend was issued on the 17th of December 2025. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next projected press release will be within a week.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Permian Resources to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Permian Stock, please use our How to Invest in Permian Resources guide.

Permian Resources Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Permian Resources' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Permian Resources' future price movements. Getting to know how Permian Resources' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Permian Resources may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
RRCRange Resources Corp 0.00 0 per month 1.93  0.02  3.16 (2.99) 9.60 
APAAPA Corporation 0.00 0 per month 2.14  0.08  4.70 (3.50) 14.33 
OVVOvintiv 0.00 0 per month 1.87  0.10  3.64 (3.04) 8.85 
ARAntero Resources Corp 0.00 0 per month 2.04  0.08  3.99 (3.18) 12.23 
AMAntero Midstream Partners 0.00 0 per month 1.13  0.09  1.82 (1.86) 5.96 
HESMHess Midstream Partners 0.00 0 per month 1.00  0.07  1.75 (1.77) 5.00 
VISTVista Oil Gas 0.00 0 per month 1.98  0.14  4.21 (3.43) 11.61 
MTDRMatador Resources 0.00 0 per month 2.06  0.08  3.10 (4.01) 9.03 
DINOHF Sinclair Corp 0.00 0 per month 1.64 (0.02) 3.90 (2.57) 7.95 
NFGNational Fuel Gas 0.00 0 per month 0.96  0.05  1.72 (1.53) 5.52 

Other Forecasting Options for Permian Resources

For every potential investor in Permian, whether a beginner or expert, Permian Resources' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Permian Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Permian. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Permian Resources' price trends.

Permian Resources Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Permian Resources stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Permian Resources could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Permian Resources by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Permian Resources Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Permian Resources stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Permian Resources shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Permian Resources stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Permian Resources entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Permian Resources Risk Indicators

The analysis of Permian Resources' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Permian Resources' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting permian stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Permian Resources

The number of cover stories for Permian Resources depends on current market conditions and Permian Resources' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Permian Resources is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Permian Resources' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Permian Resources Short Properties

Permian Resources' future price predictability will typically decrease when Permian Resources' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Permian Resources often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Permian Resources' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Permian Resources' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding684.5 M
Cash And Short Term Investments479.3 M

Additional Tools for Permian Stock Analysis

When running Permian Resources' price analysis, check to measure Permian Resources' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Permian Resources is operating at the current time. Most of Permian Resources' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Permian Resources' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Permian Resources' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Permian Resources to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.