Prothena Plc Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| PRTA Stock | USD 9.94 0.06 0.60% |
Prothena Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Prothena Plc stock prices and determine the direction of Prothena plc's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Prothena Plc's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time, The RSI of Prothena Plc's share price is at 51 indicating that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Prothena Plc, making its price go up or down. Momentum 51
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.42) | EPS Estimate Current Year (4.53) | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.5267 | Wall Street Target Price 20.3333 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.54) |
Using Prothena Plc hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Prothena plc from the perspective of Prothena Plc response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Prothena Plc using Prothena Plc's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Prothena using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Prothena Plc's stock price.
Prothena Plc Implied Volatility | 1.01 |
Prothena Plc's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Prothena plc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Prothena Plc's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Prothena Plc stock will not fluctuate a lot when Prothena Plc's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Prothena plc on the next trading day is expected to be 10.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.14. Prothena Plc after-hype prediction price | USD 9.93 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Prothena Plc to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Prothena contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Prothena plc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0631% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Prothena Plc trading at USD 9.94, that is roughly USD 0.006275 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Prothena Plc's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Prothena plc options at the current volatility level of 1.01%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Prothena Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Prothena Plc's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Prothena Plc's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Prothena Plc stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Prothena Plc's open interest, investors have to compare it to Prothena Plc's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Prothena Plc is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Prothena. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Prothena Plc Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Prothena price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Prothena using various technical indicators. When you analyze Prothena charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Prothena Plc Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Prothena Plc's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2012-12-31 | Previous Quarter 371.4 M | Current Value 330.8 M | Quarterly Volatility 145.3 M |
Prothena Plc Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Prothena plc on the next trading day is expected to be 10.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22, mean absolute percentage error of 0.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.14.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Prothena Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Prothena Plc's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Prothena Plc Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Prothena Plc | Prothena Plc Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Prothena Plc Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Prothena Plc's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Prothena Plc's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 7.53 and 13.30, respectively. We have considered Prothena Plc's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Prothena Plc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Prothena Plc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.561 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2154 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0213 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 13.1385 |
Predictive Modules for Prothena Plc
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Prothena plc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Prothena Plc's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Prothena Plc After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Prothena Plc at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Prothena Plc or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Prothena Plc, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Prothena Plc Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Prothena Plc's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Prothena Plc's historical news coverage. Prothena Plc's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 7.04 and 12.82, respectively. We have considered Prothena Plc's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Prothena Plc is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Prothena plc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Prothena Plc Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Prothena Plc is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Prothena Plc backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Prothena Plc, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.05 | 2.89 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 8 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
9.94 | 9.93 | 0.51 |
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Prothena Plc Hype Timeline
Prothena plc is at this time traded for 9.94. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.06. Prothena is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 9.93 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.51%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.05%. The volatility of related hype on Prothena Plc is about 225.6%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 10.00. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 135.16 M. Net Loss for the year was (122.31 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (158.65 M). Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Prothena Plc to cross-verify your projections.Prothena Plc Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Prothena Plc's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Prothena Plc's future price movements. Getting to know how Prothena Plc's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Prothena Plc may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| KALV | Kalvista Pharmaceuticals | 0.23 | 9 per month | 2.94 | 0.12 | 8.43 | (5.03) | 25.15 | |
| BCYC | Bicycle Therapeutics | (0.13) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 6.06 | (5.88) | 17.28 | |
| FDMT | 4D Molecular Therapeutics | 0.11 | 14 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 8.07 | (9.30) | 33.45 | |
| VSTM | Verastem | (0.54) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 5.83 | (6.80) | 29.79 | |
| OLMA | Olema Pharmaceuticals | (0.18) | 11 per month | 2.79 | 0.15 | 9.82 | (5.86) | 145.73 | |
| VTYX | Ventyx Biosciences | 2.15 | 10 per month | 3.55 | 0.21 | 14.60 | (6.90) | 86.34 | |
| NMRA | Neumora Therapeutics | (0.11) | 8 per month | 4.15 | 0.05 | 13.85 | (7.30) | 42.94 | |
| CRVS | Corvus Pharmaceuticals | 7.90 | 5 per month | 2.35 | 0.14 | 9.63 | (5.41) | 162.51 | |
| GOSS | Gossamer Bio | 0.09 | 9 per month | 4.51 | 0.06 | 9.59 | (6.57) | 31.39 | |
| RIGL | Rigel Pharmaceuticals | 3.29 | 13 per month | 3.84 | 0.07 | 8.66 | (7.41) | 44.65 |
Other Forecasting Options for Prothena Plc
For every potential investor in Prothena, whether a beginner or expert, Prothena Plc's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Prothena Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Prothena. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Prothena Plc's price trends.Prothena Plc Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Prothena Plc stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Prothena Plc could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Prothena Plc by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Prothena Plc Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Prothena Plc stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Prothena Plc shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Prothena Plc stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Prothena plc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 22460.1 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.12) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 10.02 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 9.99 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.11) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.06) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 51.28 |
Prothena Plc Risk Indicators
The analysis of Prothena Plc's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Prothena Plc's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting prothena stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.32 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.93 | |||
| Variance | 8.58 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Prothena Plc
The number of cover stories for Prothena Plc depends on current market conditions and Prothena Plc's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Prothena Plc is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Prothena Plc's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Prothena Plc Short Properties
Prothena Plc's future price predictability will typically decrease when Prothena Plc's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Prothena plc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Prothena Plc's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Prothena Plc's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 53.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 471.4 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Prothena Plc to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Prothena Stock refer to our How to Trade Prothena Stock guide.You can also try the Cryptocurrency Center module to build and monitor diversified portfolio of extremely risky digital assets and cryptocurrency.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Prothena Plc. If investors know Prothena will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Prothena Plc listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (5.20) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 1.49 | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
The market value of Prothena plc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Prothena that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Prothena Plc's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Prothena Plc's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Prothena Plc's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Prothena Plc's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Prothena Plc's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Prothena Plc is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Prothena Plc's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.