Palmer Square Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

PSBD Stock   11.90  0.02  0.17%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Palmer Square Capital on the next trading day is expected to be 11.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.95. Palmer Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Palmer Square stock prices and determine the direction of Palmer Square Capital's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Palmer Square's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Palmer Square's share price is approaching 49 indicating that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Palmer Square, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 49

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Palmer Square's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Palmer Square and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Palmer Square's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Palmer Square Capital, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Palmer Square's stock price prediction:
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.4071
EPS Estimate Current Year
1.6691
EPS Estimate Next Year
1.6033
Wall Street Target Price
13.0833
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
0.4116
Using Palmer Square hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Palmer Square Capital from the perspective of Palmer Square response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Palmer Square Capital on the next trading day is expected to be 11.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.95.

Palmer Square after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 11.9  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Palmer Square to cross-verify your projections.

Palmer Square Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Palmer price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Palmer using various technical indicators. When you analyze Palmer charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

Palmer Square Cash Forecast

Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Palmer Square's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
 
Cash  
First Reported
2010-12-31
Previous Quarter
3.2 M
Current Value
3.3 M
Quarterly Volatility
1.2 M
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
A naive forecasting model for Palmer Square is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Palmer Square Capital value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Palmer Square Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Palmer Square Capital on the next trading day is expected to be 11.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.95.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Palmer Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Palmer Square's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Palmer Square Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Palmer SquarePalmer Square Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Palmer Square Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Palmer Square's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Palmer Square's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.67 and 12.73, respectively. We have considered Palmer Square's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
11.90
11.70
Expected Value
12.73
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Palmer Square stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Palmer Square stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.9823
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1122
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0095
SAESum of the absolute errors6.9542
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Palmer Square Capital. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Palmer Square. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Palmer Square

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Palmer Square Capital. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
10.8811.9012.92
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
11.4612.4813.50
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
11.5311.9312.33
Details
6 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
11.9113.0814.52
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Palmer Square. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Palmer Square's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Palmer Square's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Palmer Square Capital.

Palmer Square After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Palmer Square at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Palmer Square or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Palmer Square, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Palmer Square Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Palmer Square's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Palmer Square's historical news coverage. Palmer Square's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 10.88 and 12.92, respectively. We have considered Palmer Square's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
11.90
11.90
After-hype Price
12.92
Upside
Palmer Square is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Palmer Square Capital is based on 3 months time horizon.

Palmer Square Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Palmer Square is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Palmer Square backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Palmer Square, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.01 
1.03
 0.00  
 0.00  
7 Events / Month
6 Events / Month
In about 7 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
11.90
11.90
0.00 
429.17  
Notes

Palmer Square Hype Timeline

Palmer Square Capital is at this time traded for 11.90. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Palmer is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.01%. %. The volatility of related hype on Palmer Square is about 3551.72%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 11.90. About 13.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.76. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Palmer Square Capital last dividend was issued on the 29th of December 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Palmer Square to cross-verify your projections.

Palmer Square Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Palmer Square's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Palmer Square's future price movements. Getting to know how Palmer Square's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Palmer Square may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
SORSource Capital Closed(0.02)6 per month 1.11 (0.02) 1.83 (1.93) 5.72 
MCIBarings Corporate Investors 0.04 8 per month 1.11  0.03  2.28 (2.31) 8.35 
PNNTPennantPark Investment(0.12)6 per month 0.00 (0.1) 2.16 (2.42) 7.91 
SARSaratoga Investment Corp(0.02)14 per month 0.85  0.06  1.62 (1.79) 5.41 
LEOBNY Mellon Strategic(0.03)8 per month 0.33 (0.12) 0.65 (0.65) 2.74 
GIGGigCapital7 Corp Class(0.13)1 per month 0.00 (0.36) 0.28 (0.73) 4.14 
GLADGladstone Capital 0.01 9 per month 1.03  0.05  2.08 (1.71) 9.53 
DHILDiamond Hill Investment(0.18)6 per month 0.76  0.08  1.64 (1.95) 45.03 
ECCEagle Point Credit(0.02)23 per month 1.59 (0.06) 2.49 (2.17) 10.10 
SCMStellus Capital Investment 0.18 6 per month 1.17  0.06  2.04 (1.71) 6.78 

Other Forecasting Options for Palmer Square

For every potential investor in Palmer, whether a beginner or expert, Palmer Square's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Palmer Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Palmer. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Palmer Square's price trends.

Palmer Square Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Palmer Square stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Palmer Square could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Palmer Square by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Palmer Square Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Palmer Square stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Palmer Square shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Palmer Square stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Palmer Square Capital entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Palmer Square Risk Indicators

The analysis of Palmer Square's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Palmer Square's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting palmer stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Palmer Square

The number of cover stories for Palmer Square depends on current market conditions and Palmer Square's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Palmer Square is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Palmer Square's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Palmer Square Short Properties

Palmer Square's future price predictability will typically decrease when Palmer Square's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Palmer Square Capital often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Palmer Square's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Palmer Square's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding32.6 M
Cash And Short Term Investments2.8 M
When determining whether Palmer Square Capital is a strong investment it is important to analyze Palmer Square's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Palmer Square's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Palmer Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Palmer Square to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Cryptocurrency Center module to build and monitor diversified portfolio of extremely risky digital assets and cryptocurrency.
Is Asset Management & Custody Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Palmer Square. If investors know Palmer will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Palmer Square listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share
0.43
The market value of Palmer Square Capital is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Palmer that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Palmer Square's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Palmer Square's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Palmer Square's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Palmer Square's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Palmer Square's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Palmer Square is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Palmer Square's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.