Prospect Capital Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| PSEC Stock | USD 2.88 0.06 2.13% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Prospect Capital on the next trading day is expected to be 2.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.15. Prospect Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Prospect Capital stock prices and determine the direction of Prospect Capital's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Prospect Capital's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The value of RSI of Prospect Capital's stock price is about 60 indicating that the stock is rather overbought by investors at the present time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Prospect, making its price go up or down. Momentum 60
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Prospect Capital hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Prospect Capital from the perspective of Prospect Capital response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Prospect Capital on the next trading day is expected to be 2.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.15. Prospect Capital after-hype prediction price | USD 2.88 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Prospect Capital to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Prospect Stock refer to our How to Trade Prospect Stock guide.Prospect Capital Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Prospect price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Prospect using various technical indicators. When you analyze Prospect charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Prospect Capital Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Prospect Capital on the next trading day is expected to be 2.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.15.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Prospect Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Prospect Capital's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Prospect Capital Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Prospect Capital | Prospect Capital Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Prospect Capital Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Prospect Capital's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Prospect Capital's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.74 and 4.88, respectively. We have considered Prospect Capital's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Prospect Capital stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Prospect Capital stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.6148 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0517 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0197 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3.1512 |
Predictive Modules for Prospect Capital
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Prospect Capital. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Prospect Capital's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Prospect Capital After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Prospect Capital at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Prospect Capital or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Prospect Capital, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Prospect Capital Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Prospect Capital's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Prospect Capital's historical news coverage. Prospect Capital's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.81 and 4.95, respectively. We have considered Prospect Capital's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Prospect Capital is moderately volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Prospect Capital is based on 3 months time horizon.
Prospect Capital Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Prospect Capital is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Prospect Capital backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Prospect Capital, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.18 | 2.07 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
2.88 | 2.88 | 0.00 |
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Prospect Capital Hype Timeline
Prospect Capital is at this time traded for 2.88. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.01. Prospect is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.18%. %. The volatility of related hype on Prospect Capital is about 5479.41%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2.87. About 28.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.44. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Prospect Capital has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.59. The entity recorded a loss per share of 0.89. The firm last dividend was issued on the 28th of January 2026. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Prospect Capital to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Prospect Stock refer to our How to Trade Prospect Stock guide.Prospect Capital Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Prospect Capital's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Prospect Capital's future price movements. Getting to know how Prospect Capital's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Prospect Capital may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GSBD | Goldman Sachs BDC | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.06 | (0.09) | 1.88 | (1.93) | 4.85 | |
| CSWC | Capital Southwest | (0.12) | 31 per month | 0.90 | 0.11 | 2.20 | (2.02) | 6.18 | |
| MFIC | MidCap Financial Investment | (0.10) | 8 per month | 1.40 | (0.05) | 2.18 | (1.47) | 6.99 | |
| NMFC | New Mountain Finance | 0.13 | 5 per month | 1.01 | (0.06) | 1.66 | (1.69) | 5.28 | |
| FSCO | FS Credit Opportunities | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.33 | (0.07) | 2.10 | (2.44) | 5.90 | |
| PX | P10 Inc | (0.26) | 12 per month | 2.17 | 0 | 4.03 | (3.41) | 9.58 | |
| HRZN | Horizon Technology Finance | (0.01) | 8 per month | 0.79 | 0.12 | 2.53 | (1.59) | 11.64 | |
| OCSL | Oaktree Specialty Lending | 0.02 | 14 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 1.50 | (1.95) | 4.67 | |
| TRINI | Trinity Capital 7875 | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.09 | (0.31) | 0.40 | (0.28) | 1.32 |
Other Forecasting Options for Prospect Capital
For every potential investor in Prospect, whether a beginner or expert, Prospect Capital's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Prospect Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Prospect. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Prospect Capital's price trends.Prospect Capital Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Prospect Capital stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Prospect Capital could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Prospect Capital by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Prospect Capital Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Prospect Capital stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Prospect Capital shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Prospect Capital stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Prospect Capital entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Prospect Capital Risk Indicators
The analysis of Prospect Capital's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Prospect Capital's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting prospect stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.51 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.58 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.07 | |||
| Variance | 4.27 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.33 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.5 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.77) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Prospect Capital
The number of cover stories for Prospect Capital depends on current market conditions and Prospect Capital's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Prospect Capital is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Prospect Capital's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Prospect Capital Short Properties
Prospect Capital's future price predictability will typically decrease when Prospect Capital's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Prospect Capital often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Prospect Capital's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Prospect Capital's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 440.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 46.5 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Prospect Capital to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Prospect Stock refer to our How to Trade Prospect Stock guide.You can also try the Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.
Is Stock space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Prospect Capital. If investors know Prospect will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Prospect Capital listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Prospect Capital is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Prospect that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Prospect Capital's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Prospect Capital's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Prospect Capital's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Prospect Capital's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Prospect Capital's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Prospect Capital is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Prospect Capital's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.