Postal Realty Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| PSTL Stock | USD 19.21 0.16 0.84% |
Postal Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of now the relative strength index (rsi) of Postal Realty's share price is below 20 indicating that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Postal Realty hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Postal Realty Trust from the perspective of Postal Realty response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Postal Realty Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 19.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.93. Postal Realty after-hype prediction price | USD 19.01 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Postal Realty to cross-verify your projections. Postal Realty Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Postal price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Postal using various technical indicators. When you analyze Postal charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Postal Realty Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 7th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Postal Realty Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 19.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.93.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Postal Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Postal Realty's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Postal Realty Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Postal Realty | Postal Realty Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Postal Realty Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Postal Realty's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Postal Realty's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 18.31 and 20.40, respectively. We have considered Postal Realty's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Postal Realty stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Postal Realty stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.001 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1344 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0083 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.9273 |
Predictive Modules for Postal Realty
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Postal Realty Trust. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Postal Realty's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Postal Realty After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Postal Realty at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Postal Realty or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Postal Realty, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Postal Realty Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Postal Realty's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Postal Realty's historical news coverage. Postal Realty's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 17.95 and 20.07, respectively. We have considered Postal Realty's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Postal Realty is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Postal Realty Trust is based on 3 months time horizon.
Postal Realty Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Postal Realty is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Postal Realty backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Postal Realty, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.35 | 1.05 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
19.21 | 19.01 | 0.37 |
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Postal Realty Hype Timeline
Postal Realty Trust is at this time traded for 19.21. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.02. Postal is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 19.01 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is insignificant. The price upswing on the next news is projected to be 0.37%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.35%. The volatility of related hype on Postal Realty is about 2100.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 19.19. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 76.37 M. Net Income was 5.68 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 71.31 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Postal Realty to cross-verify your projections.Postal Realty Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Postal Realty's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Postal Realty's future price movements. Getting to know how Postal Realty's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Postal Realty may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NLOP | Net Lease Office | (0.10) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 1.85 | (1.87) | 7.34 | |
| IVR | Invesco Mortgage Capital | (0.05) | 9 per month | 0.92 | 0.17 | 2.36 | (1.89) | 8.51 | |
| FPI | Farmland Partners | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.85 | 0.19 | 2.38 | (1.48) | 7.13 | |
| RC | Ready Capital Corp | (0.06) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 5.19 | (4.92) | 14.40 | |
| OLP | One Liberty Properties | (0.37) | 9 per month | 1.02 | 0.1 | 2.65 | (1.75) | 6.92 | |
| AHH | Armada Hflr Pr | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.13 | 0.12 | 3.16 | (1.93) | 7.04 | |
| CMTG | Claros Mortgage Trust | (0.02) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 6.01 | (6.32) | 17.41 | |
| PKST | Peakstone Realty Trust | 0.15 | 8 per month | 1.13 | 0.15 | 4.40 | (2.35) | 33.39 | |
| GOOD | Gladstone Commercial | (0.05) | 10 per month | 1.65 | (0.02) | 2.31 | (1.98) | 6.22 | |
| NREF | Nexpoint Real Estate | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.04 | 0.1 | 2.44 | (1.51) | 8.26 |
Other Forecasting Options for Postal Realty
For every potential investor in Postal, whether a beginner or expert, Postal Realty's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Postal Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Postal. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Postal Realty's price trends.Postal Realty Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Postal Realty stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Postal Realty could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Postal Realty by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Postal Realty Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Postal Realty stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Postal Realty shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Postal Realty stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Postal Realty Trust entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 7712.39 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.381 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 19.05 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 19.1 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.24 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.16 |
Postal Realty Risk Indicators
The analysis of Postal Realty's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Postal Realty's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting postal stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8306 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.4409 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.05 | |||
| Variance | 1.1 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.8884 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.1944 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.97) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Postal Realty
The number of cover stories for Postal Realty depends on current market conditions and Postal Realty's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Postal Realty is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Postal Realty's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Postal Realty Short Properties
Postal Realty's future price predictability will typically decrease when Postal Realty's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Postal Realty Trust often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Postal Realty's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Postal Realty's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 22.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.8 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Postal Realty to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Investing Opportunities module to build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences.
Is Diversified REITs space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Postal Realty. Anticipated expansion of Postal directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Postal Realty assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
The market value of Postal Realty Trust is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Postal that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Postal Realty's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Postal Realty's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Postal Realty's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Postal Realty's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Postal Realty's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Postal Realty should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Meanwhile, Postal Realty's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.