Qudian Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| QD Stock | USD 2.29 0.05 2.14% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Qudian Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 2.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.53. Qudian Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Qudian stock prices and determine the direction of Qudian Inc's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Qudian's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Qudian |
Qudian Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Qudian's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2016-12-31 | Previous Quarter 4.8 B | Current Value 4.8 B | Quarterly Volatility 2 B |
Qudian Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Qudian Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 2.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.53.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Qudian Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Qudian's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Qudian Stock Forecast Pattern
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Qudian Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Qudian's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Qudian's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 5.57, respectively. We have considered Qudian's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Qudian stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Qudian stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.9347 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0578 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0271 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3.528 |
Predictive Modules for Qudian
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Qudian Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Qudian's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Qudian
For every potential investor in Qudian, whether a beginner or expert, Qudian's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Qudian Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Qudian. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Qudian's price trends.Qudian Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Qudian stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Qudian could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Qudian by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Qudian Inc Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Qudian's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Qudian's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Momentum Indicators | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Qudian Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Qudian stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Qudian shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Qudian stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Qudian Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Qudian Risk Indicators
The analysis of Qudian's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Qudian's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting qudian stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.62 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.75 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.34 | |||
| Variance | 11.14 | |||
| Downside Variance | 9.46 | |||
| Semi Variance | 7.59 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.00) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Qudian to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Equity Analysis module to research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities.
Is Consumer Finance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Qudian. If investors know Qudian will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Qudian listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.515 | Earnings Share (0.28) | Revenue Per Share 1.016 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 3.81 | Return On Assets (0.02) |
The market value of Qudian Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Qudian that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Qudian's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Qudian's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Qudian's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Qudian's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Qudian's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Qudian is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Qudian's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.