American Financial Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

QFI Stock  EUR 140.00  1.00  0.72%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of American Financial Group on the next trading day is expected to be 140.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.59 and the sum of the absolute errors of 95.32. American Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of American Financial's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
American Financial simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for American Financial Group are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as American Financial prices get older.

American Financial Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 3rd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of American Financial Group on the next trading day is expected to be 140.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.59, mean absolute percentage error of 4.96, and the sum of the absolute errors of 95.32.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict American Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that American Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

American Financial Stock Forecast Pattern

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American Financial Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting American Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. American Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 138.22 and 141.78, respectively. We have considered American Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
140.00
138.22
Downside
140.00
Expected Value
141.78
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of American Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent American Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.8732
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.389
MADMean absolute deviation1.5887
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0129
SAESum of the absolute errors95.32
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting American Financial Group forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent American Financial observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for American Financial

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
138.22140.00141.78
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
126.00156.07157.85
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
107.39125.29143.18
Details

Other Forecasting Options for American Financial

For every potential investor in American, whether a beginner or expert, American Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. American Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in American. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying American Financial's price trends.

American Financial Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with American Financial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of American Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing American Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

American Financial Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of American Financial's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of American Financial's current price.

American Financial Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how American Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading American Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying American Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify American Financial Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

American Financial Risk Indicators

The analysis of American Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in American Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting american stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in American Stock

When determining whether American Financial is a strong investment it is important to analyze American Financial's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact American Financial's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding American Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Financial to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the ETF Categories module to list of ETF categories grouped based on various criteria, such as the investment strategy or type of investments.
Please note, there is a significant difference between American Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if American Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.