Radcom Stock Forward View - Simple Regression

RDCM Stock  USD 11.93  0.09  0.76%   
Radcom Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Radcom's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Radcom's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Radcom fundamentals over time.
As of now the relative strength index (rsi) of Radcom's share price is below 20 indicating that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Radcom's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Radcom and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Radcom's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Radcom, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Radcom's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.5
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.23
EPS Estimate Current Year
1.04
EPS Estimate Next Year
1.03
Wall Street Target Price
18
Using Radcom hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Radcom from the perspective of Radcom response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Radcom on the next trading day is expected to be 12.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.33 and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.46.

Radcom after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 11.93  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Radcom to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Radcom Stock, please use our How to Invest in Radcom guide.

Radcom Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Radcom price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Radcom using various technical indicators. When you analyze Radcom charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Radcom price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Radcom Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 7th of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Radcom on the next trading day is expected to be 12.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.33, mean absolute percentage error of 0.17, and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.46.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Radcom Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Radcom's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Radcom Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Radcom  Radcom Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Radcom Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Radcom's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Radcom's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.64 and 14.69, respectively. We have considered Radcom's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
11.93
12.66
Expected Value
14.69
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Radcom stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Radcom stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.1794
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.3299
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0256
SAESum of the absolute errors20.4564
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Radcom historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Radcom

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Radcom. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Radcom's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
9.9011.9313.96
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
10.7415.2117.24
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
12.0812.9613.84
Details
2 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
16.3818.0019.98
Details

Radcom After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Radcom at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Radcom or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Radcom, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Radcom Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Radcom's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Radcom's historical news coverage. Radcom's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 9.90 and 13.96, respectively. We have considered Radcom's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
11.93
11.93
After-hype Price
13.96
Upside
Radcom is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Radcom is based on 3 months time horizon.

Radcom Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Radcom is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Radcom backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Radcom, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.08 
2.03
 0.00  
 0.00  
10 Events / Month
6 Events / Month
In about 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
11.93
11.93
0.00 
10,150  
Notes

Radcom Hype Timeline

Radcom is at this time traded for 11.93. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Radcom is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.08%. %. The volatility of related hype on Radcom is about 25375.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 11.93. About 15.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.77. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Radcom had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 1:4 split on the 16th of June 2008. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Radcom to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Radcom Stock, please use our How to Invest in Radcom guide.

Radcom Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Radcom's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Radcom's future price movements. Getting to know how Radcom's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Radcom may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
ATNIATN International 0.36 7 per month 1.52  0.27  5.16 (3.13) 22.28 
CXDOCrexendo(0.17)10 per month 3.52 (0.01) 7.31 (6.14) 16.73 
SSPE W Scripps(0.08)12 per month 3.70  0.09  7.52 (6.60) 53.49 
TRVGTrivago NV 0.03 9 per month 0.00 (0.10) 4.23 (4.92) 11.25 
UPXIUpexi Inc 0.08 10 per month 0.00 (0.26) 11.51 (12.26) 31.11 
TRUETrueCar(0.01)8 per month 1.81  0.03  4.74 (3.48) 12.10 
ARENArena Group Holdings 0.02 10 per month 0.00 (0.19) 5.26 (6.73) 21.24 
NEXNNexxen International(0.10)10 per month 0.00 (0.16) 3.19 (4.93) 24.48 
EVCEntravision Communications(0.01)8 per month 1.51  0.12  5.93 (3.35) 48.82 
CURICuriositystream(0.04)10 per month 0.00 (0.07) 4.99 (6.20) 33.31 

Other Forecasting Options for Radcom

For every potential investor in Radcom, whether a beginner or expert, Radcom's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Radcom Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Radcom. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Radcom's price trends.

Radcom Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Radcom stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Radcom could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Radcom by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Radcom Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Radcom stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Radcom shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Radcom stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Radcom entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Radcom Risk Indicators

The analysis of Radcom's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Radcom's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting radcom stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Radcom

The number of cover stories for Radcom depends on current market conditions and Radcom's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Radcom is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Radcom's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Radcom Short Properties

Radcom's future price predictability will typically decrease when Radcom's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Radcom often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Radcom's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Radcom's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding16.2 M
Cash And Short Term Investments94.7 M
When determining whether Radcom is a strong investment it is important to analyze Radcom's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Radcom's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Radcom Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Radcom to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Radcom Stock, please use our How to Invest in Radcom guide.
You can also try the Equity Search module to search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets.
Will Communications Equipment sector continue expanding? Could Radcom diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Radcom. Anticipated expansion of Radcom directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Radcom data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.5
Earnings Share
0.64
Revenue Per Share
4.278
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.162
Return On Assets
0.0329
Understanding Radcom requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Radcom's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value - what Radcom's is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Radcom's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Radcom's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Radcom should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. In contrast, Radcom's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.