RF Industries Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| RFIL Stock | USD 10.93 0.31 2.76% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of RF Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 11.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.76. RFIL Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although RF Industries' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of RF Industries' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of RF Industries fundamentals over time.
As of now the relative strength index (rsi) of RF Industries' share price is below 20 indicating that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.134 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.43 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.47 | Wall Street Target Price 10.25 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.09 |
Using RF Industries hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of RF Industries from the perspective of RF Industries response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards RF Industries using RF Industries' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards RFIL using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of RF Industries' stock price.
RF Industries Short Interest
An investor who is long RF Industries may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about RF Industries and may potentially protect profits, hedge RF Industries with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 6.366 | Short Percent 0.0049 | Short Ratio 0.84 | Shares Short Prior Month 48.3 K | 50 Day MA 6.5684 |
RF Industries Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to RF Industries' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in RFIL. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding RFIL can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around RF Industries. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
RF Industries Implied Volatility | 1.38 |
RF Industries' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of RF Industries stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if RF Industries' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that RF Industries stock will not fluctuate a lot when RF Industries' options are near their expiration.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of RF Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 11.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.76. RF Industries after-hype prediction price | USD 10.97 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of RF Industries to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current RFIL contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that RF Industries will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0862% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With RF Industries trading at USD 10.93, that is roughly USD 0.009427 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating RF Industries' daily price movement you should consider acquiring RF Industries options at the current volatility level of 1.38%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 RFIL Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast RF Industries' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in RF Industries' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for RF Industries stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current RF Industries' open interest, investors have to compare it to RF Industries' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of RF Industries is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in RFIL. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
RF Industries Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine RFIL price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for RFIL using various technical indicators. When you analyze RFIL charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
RF Industries Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of RF Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 11.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21, mean absolute percentage error of 0.14, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.76.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict RFIL Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that RF Industries' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
RF Industries Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest RF Industries | RF Industries Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
RF Industries Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting RF Industries' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. RF Industries' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 6.30 and 16.08, respectively. We have considered RF Industries' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of RF Industries stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent RF Industries stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0183 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2127 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0282 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 12.7628 |
Predictive Modules for RF Industries
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as RF Industries. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.RF Industries After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of RF Industries at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in RF Industries or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of RF Industries, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
RF Industries Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting RF Industries' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on RF Industries' historical news coverage. RF Industries' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 6.08 and 15.86, respectively. We have considered RF Industries' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
RF Industries is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of RF Industries is based on 3 months time horizon.
RF Industries Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as RF Industries is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading RF Industries backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with RF Industries, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.63 | 4.89 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 22 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 22 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
10.93 | 10.97 | 0.37 |
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RF Industries Hype Timeline
RF Industries is at this time traded for 10.93. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.04. RFIL is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 10.97 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price upswing on the next news is projected to be 0.37%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.63%. The volatility of related hype on RF Industries is about 7086.96%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 10.97. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 80.59 M. Net Income was 75 K with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 26.74 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 22 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of RF Industries to cross-verify your projections.RF Industries Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to RF Industries' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict RF Industries' future price movements. Getting to know how RF Industries' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how RF Industries may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CBAT | CBAK Energy Technology | (0.01) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 3.13 | (3.33) | 7.92 | |
| OPTT | Ocean Power Technologies | 0.06 | 12 per month | 6.48 | (0.01) | 7.89 | (8.82) | 36.47 | |
| DFLI | Chardan NexTech Acquisition | 0.06 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 13.98 | (17.43) | 58.61 | |
| SUGP | SU Group Holdings | 0.06 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 17.52 | (9.92) | 43.26 | |
| FTEK | Fuel Tech | 0.04 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.28) | 6.45 | (6.13) | 19.15 | |
| MHH | Mastech Holdings | 0.06 | 13 per month | 3.65 | 0.02 | 6.83 | (5.59) | 19.87 | |
| RYM | RYTHM Inc | 0.06 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 10.94 | (15.38) | 63.12 | |
| XCH | XCHG Limited American | (0.09) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 8.76 | (9.09) | 32.99 | |
| JLHL | Julong Holding Limited | 0.19 | 3 per month | 7.27 | 0.06 | 9.17 | (11.95) | 32.35 | |
| SHIM | Shimmick Common | 0.26 | 7 per month | 3.88 | 0.12 | 12.69 | (6.83) | 26.47 |
Other Forecasting Options for RF Industries
For every potential investor in RFIL, whether a beginner or expert, RF Industries' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. RFIL Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in RFIL. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying RF Industries' price trends.RF Industries Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with RF Industries stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of RF Industries could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing RF Industries by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
RF Industries Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how RF Industries stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading RF Industries shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying RF Industries stock market strength indicators, traders can identify RF Industries entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 9389.27 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.51) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.97 | |||
| Day Median Price | 10.92 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 10.92 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.14) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.31) |
RF Industries Risk Indicators
The analysis of RF Industries' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in RF Industries' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting rfil stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.01 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.49 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.79 | |||
| Variance | 22.92 | |||
| Downside Variance | 7.89 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.19 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.94) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for RF Industries
The number of cover stories for RF Industries depends on current market conditions and RF Industries' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that RF Industries is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about RF Industries' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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RF Industries Short Properties
RF Industries' future price predictability will typically decrease when RF Industries' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of RF Industries often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential RF Industries' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. RF Industries' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 10.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 5.1 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of RF Industries to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy RFIL Stock please use our How to buy in RFIL Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.
Is Electronic Equipment, Instruments & Components space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of RF Industries. If investors know RFIL will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about RF Industries listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.134 | Earnings Share 0.01 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.229 | Return On Assets |
The market value of RF Industries is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of RFIL that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of RF Industries' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is RF Industries' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because RF Industries' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect RF Industries' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between RF Industries' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if RF Industries is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, RF Industries' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.