RCI Hospitality Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| RICK Stock | USD 23.10 0.09 0.39% |
RCI Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of now, the relative strength indicator of RCI Hospitality's share price is approaching 48 indicating that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling RCI Hospitality, making its price go up or down. Momentum 48
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using RCI Hospitality hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of RCI Hospitality Holdings from the perspective of RCI Hospitality response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of RCI Hospitality Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 23.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.56 and the sum of the absolute errors of 33.81. RCI Hospitality after-hype prediction price | USD 22.76 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of RCI Hospitality to cross-verify your projections. RCI Hospitality Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine RCI price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for RCI using various technical indicators. When you analyze RCI charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
RCI Hospitality Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of RCI Hospitality Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 23.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.56, mean absolute percentage error of 0.61, and the sum of the absolute errors of 33.81.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict RCI Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that RCI Hospitality's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
RCI Hospitality Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest RCI Hospitality | RCI Hospitality Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
RCI Hospitality Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting RCI Hospitality's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. RCI Hospitality's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 20.28 and 25.92, respectively. We have considered RCI Hospitality's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of RCI Hospitality stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent RCI Hospitality stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.7713 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0198 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5635 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0227 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 33.81 |
Predictive Modules for RCI Hospitality
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as RCI Hospitality Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of RCI Hospitality's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
RCI Hospitality After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of RCI Hospitality at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in RCI Hospitality or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of RCI Hospitality, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
RCI Hospitality Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting RCI Hospitality's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on RCI Hospitality's historical news coverage. RCI Hospitality's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 19.92 and 25.60, respectively. We have considered RCI Hospitality's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
RCI Hospitality is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of RCI Hospitality Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
RCI Hospitality Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as RCI Hospitality is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading RCI Hospitality backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with RCI Hospitality, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.08 | 2.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
23.10 | 22.76 | 0.13 |
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RCI Hospitality Hype Timeline
RCI Hospitality Holdings is at this time traded for 23.10. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. RCI is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 22.76 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is insignificant. The price upswing on the next news is projected to be 0.13%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.08%. The volatility of related hype on RCI Hospitality is about 10444.44%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 23.10. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 295.6 M. Net Income was 3.02 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 239.44 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of RCI Hospitality to cross-verify your projections.RCI Hospitality Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to RCI Hospitality's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict RCI Hospitality's future price movements. Getting to know how RCI Hospitality's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how RCI Hospitality may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DENN | Dennys Corp | (0.01) | 9 per month | 1.72 | 0.07 | 2.24 | (4.27) | 51.18 | |
| TWNP | Twin Hospitality Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.34) | 11.76 | (39.44) | 71.01 | |
| RCKY | Rocky Brands | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.63 | 0.07 | 3.51 | (2.25) | 14.61 | |
| GHG | GreenTree Hospitality Group | (0.03) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.24) | 2.86 | (4.27) | 9.17 | |
| VIOT | Viomi Technology ADR | 0.02 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.37) | 4.22 | (5.10) | 17.65 | |
| LOVE | The Lovesac | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.88 | 0.04 | 6.06 | (3.91) | 20.21 | |
| INSE | Inspired Entertainment | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.11 | 0.07 | 3.01 | (3.37) | 13.50 | |
| CRMT | Americas Car Mart | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.28 | 0.05 | 6.62 | (5.53) | 18.39 | |
| SEV | Aptera Motors Corp | 0.06 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 7.27 | (14.25) | 51.99 | |
| FLXS | Flexsteel Industries | 0.23 | 16 per month | 1.71 | 0.15 | 5.37 | (3.18) | 29.71 |
Other Forecasting Options for RCI Hospitality
For every potential investor in RCI, whether a beginner or expert, RCI Hospitality's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. RCI Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in RCI. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying RCI Hospitality's price trends.RCI Hospitality Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with RCI Hospitality stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of RCI Hospitality could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing RCI Hospitality by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
RCI Hospitality Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how RCI Hospitality stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading RCI Hospitality shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying RCI Hospitality stock market strength indicators, traders can identify RCI Hospitality Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
RCI Hospitality Risk Indicators
The analysis of RCI Hospitality's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in RCI Hospitality's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting rci stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.11 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.82 | |||
| Variance | 7.94 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for RCI Hospitality
The number of cover stories for RCI Hospitality depends on current market conditions and RCI Hospitality's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that RCI Hospitality is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about RCI Hospitality's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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RCI Hospitality Short Properties
RCI Hospitality's future price predictability will typically decrease when RCI Hospitality's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of RCI Hospitality Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential RCI Hospitality's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. RCI Hospitality's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 9.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 32.4 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of RCI Hospitality to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Aroon Oscillator module to analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios.
Is Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of RCI Hospitality. Anticipated expansion of RCI directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive RCI Hospitality assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Understanding RCI Hospitality Holdings requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects RCI's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value - what RCI Hospitality's is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push RCI Hospitality's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between RCI Hospitality's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding RCI Hospitality should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. In contrast, RCI Hospitality's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.