Transocean Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| RIG Stock | USD 5.44 0.27 4.73% |
Transocean Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Transocean's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 11th of February 2026 the relative strength index (rsi) of Transocean's share price is below 20 indicating that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.06 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.0701 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.1805 | Wall Street Target Price 5.0273 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.0315 |
Using Transocean hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Transocean from the perspective of Transocean response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Transocean using Transocean's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Transocean using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Transocean's stock price.
Transocean Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Transocean's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Transocean. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Transocean stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 3.4237 | Short Percent 0.1298 | Short Ratio 4.28 | Shares Short Prior Month 147.7 M | 50 Day MA 4.4368 |
Transocean Relative Strength Index
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Transocean on the next trading day is expected to be 4.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.58.Transocean Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Transocean's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Transocean. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Transocean can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Transocean. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Transocean's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Transocean.
Transocean Implied Volatility | 0.67 |
Transocean's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Transocean stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Transocean's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Transocean stock will not fluctuate a lot when Transocean's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Transocean on the next trading day is expected to be 4.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.58.
Transocean after-hype prediction price | USD 5.47 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Transocean | Build AI portfolio with Transocean Stock |
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Transocean contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Transocean will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0419% per day over the life of the 2026-05-15 option contract. With Transocean trading at USD 5.44, that is roughly USD 0.002278 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Transocean's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Transocean options at the current volatility level of 0.67%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-05-15 Transocean Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Transocean's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Transocean's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Transocean stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Transocean's open interest, investors have to compare it to Transocean's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Transocean is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Transocean. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Transocean Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Transocean price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Transocean using various technical indicators. When you analyze Transocean charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Transocean Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 12th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Transocean on the next trading day is expected to be 4.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25, mean absolute percentage error of 0.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.58.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Transocean Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Transocean's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Transocean Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Transocean | Transocean Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Transocean Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Transocean's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Transocean's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1.91 and 8.05, respectively. We have considered Transocean's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Transocean stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Transocean stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.4663 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2512 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.057 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 15.5761 |
Predictive Modules for Transocean
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Transocean. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Transocean After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Transocean at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Transocean or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Transocean, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Transocean Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Transocean's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Transocean's historical news coverage. Transocean's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 2.30 and 8.64, respectively. We have considered Transocean's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Transocean is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Transocean is based on 3 months time horizon.
Transocean Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Transocean is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Transocean backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Transocean, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.56 | 3.07 | 0.04 | 0.67 | 10 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
5.44 | 5.47 | 0.55 |
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Transocean Hype Timeline
On the 11th of February 2026 Transocean is traded for 5.44. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.67. Transocean is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 5.47 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price rise on the next news is projected to be 0.55%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.56%. The volatility of related hype on Transocean is about 254.98%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 4.77. The company reported the last year's revenue of 3.52 B. Reported Net Loss for the year was (512 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 1.52 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Transocean to cross-verify your projections.Transocean Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Transocean's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Transocean's future price movements. Getting to know how Transocean's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Transocean may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PTEN | Patterson UTI Energy | 1.77 | 15 per month | 2.20 | 0.16 | 5.89 | (3.61) | 10.85 | |
| KGS | Kodiak Gas Services | 0.98 | 10 per month | 1.81 | 0.19 | 3.55 | (2.63) | 8.66 | |
| PBF | PBF Energy | 0.21 | 10 per month | 3.58 | (0.01) | 6.13 | (5.32) | 19.17 | |
| STNG | Scorpio Tankers | (1.69) | 8 per month | 1.58 | 0.04 | 4.53 | (2.67) | 12.30 | |
| GPOR | Gulfport Energy Operating | (15.78) | 11 per month | 2.54 | (0) | 3.11 | (4.05) | 11.99 | |
| USAC | USA Compression Partners | 0.23 | 7 per month | 1.41 | 0.09 | 2.96 | (2.55) | 7.17 | |
| TGS | Transportadora de Gas | 0.18 | 8 per month | 1.64 | (0.01) | 4.45 | (3.06) | 8.50 | |
| VAL | Valaris | (0.11) | 9 per month | 2.29 | 0.13 | 6.17 | (4.78) | 13.35 | |
| VIST | Vista Oil Gas | 0.40 | 8 per month | 2.64 | 0.06 | 4.21 | (4.38) | 13.64 | |
| TDW | Tidewater | 1.77 | 11 per month | 2.83 | 0.12 | 5.06 | (6.12) | 15.89 |
Other Forecasting Options for Transocean
For every potential investor in Transocean, whether a beginner or expert, Transocean's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Transocean Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Transocean. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Transocean's price trends.Transocean Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Transocean stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Transocean could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Transocean by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Transocean Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Transocean stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Transocean shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Transocean stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Transocean entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 8.9 M | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.64) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.95 | |||
| Day Median Price | 5.39 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 5.41 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.09) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.27) |
Transocean Risk Indicators
The analysis of Transocean's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Transocean's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting transocean stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.14 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.5 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.05 | |||
| Variance | 9.29 | |||
| Downside Variance | 10.69 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.27 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.33) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Transocean
The number of cover stories for Transocean depends on current market conditions and Transocean's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Transocean is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Transocean's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Transocean Short Properties
Transocean's future price predictability will typically decrease when Transocean's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Transocean often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Transocean's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Transocean's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 925 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 560 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Transocean to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Transocean Stock please use our How to Invest in Transocean guide.You can also try the Headlines Timeline module to stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity.
Can Energy Equipment & Services industry sustain growth momentum? Does Transocean have expansion opportunities? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Transocean. Anticipated expansion of Transocean directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. Determining accurate worth demands scrutiny of both present operating results and projected expansion capacity. Evaluating Transocean demands reviewing these metrics collectively while recognizing certain factors exert disproportionate influence.
Earnings Share (3.18) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.084 | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
Transocean's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on Transocean's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate Transocean's intrinsic value - its true economic worth - which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Market participants employ diverse analytical approaches to determine fair value and identify buying opportunities when prices dip below calculated worth. Since Transocean's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Transocean's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Transocean should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. However, Transocean's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.