Riot Blockchain Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| RIOT Stock | USD 15.32 0.15 0.97% |
Riot Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the relative strength indicator of Riot Blockchain's share price is approaching 45 indicating that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Riot Blockchain, making its price go up or down. Momentum 45
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.373 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.16) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.26) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.48) | Wall Street Target Price 26.8905 |
Using Riot Blockchain hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Riot Blockchain from the perspective of Riot Blockchain response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Riot Blockchain using Riot Blockchain's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Riot using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Riot Blockchain's stock price.
Riot Blockchain Short Interest
An investor who is long Riot Blockchain may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Riot Blockchain and may potentially protect profits, hedge Riot Blockchain with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 13.8294 | Short Percent 0.1523 | Short Ratio 3.66 | Shares Short Prior Month 51 M | 50 Day MA 15.1516 |
Riot Relative Strength Index
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Riot Blockchain on the next trading day is expected to be 16.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.26 and the sum of the absolute errors of 76.60.Riot Blockchain Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Riot Blockchain's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Riot. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Riot can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Riot Blockchain. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Riot Blockchain's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Riot Blockchain.
Riot Blockchain Implied Volatility | 1.03 |
Riot Blockchain's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Riot Blockchain stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Riot Blockchain's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Riot Blockchain stock will not fluctuate a lot when Riot Blockchain's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Riot Blockchain on the next trading day is expected to be 16.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.26 and the sum of the absolute errors of 76.60. Riot Blockchain after-hype prediction price | USD 15.21 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Riot Blockchain to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Riot contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Riot Blockchain will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0644% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Riot Blockchain trading at USD 15.32, that is roughly USD 0.009862 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Riot Blockchain's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Riot Blockchain options at the current volatility level of 1.03%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Riot Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Riot Blockchain's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Riot Blockchain's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Riot Blockchain stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Riot Blockchain's open interest, investors have to compare it to Riot Blockchain's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Riot Blockchain is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Riot. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Riot Blockchain Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Riot price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Riot using various technical indicators. When you analyze Riot charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Riot Blockchain Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 4th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Riot Blockchain on the next trading day is expected to be 16.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.26, mean absolute percentage error of 2.38, and the sum of the absolute errors of 76.60.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Riot Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Riot Blockchain's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Riot Blockchain Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Riot Blockchain | Riot Blockchain Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Riot Blockchain Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Riot Blockchain's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Riot Blockchain's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.91 and 21.10, respectively. We have considered Riot Blockchain's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Riot Blockchain stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Riot Blockchain stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.9788 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.2557 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0827 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 76.5987 |
Predictive Modules for Riot Blockchain
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Riot Blockchain. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Riot Blockchain After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Riot Blockchain at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Riot Blockchain or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Riot Blockchain, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Riot Blockchain Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Riot Blockchain's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Riot Blockchain's historical news coverage. Riot Blockchain's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 10.12 and 20.30, respectively. We have considered Riot Blockchain's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Riot Blockchain is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Riot Blockchain is based on 3 months time horizon.
Riot Blockchain Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Riot Blockchain is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Riot Blockchain backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Riot Blockchain, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.22 | 5.09 | 0.11 | 0.09 | 10 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
15.32 | 15.21 | 0.72 |
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Riot Blockchain Hype Timeline
Riot Blockchain is at this time traded for 15.32. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.11, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.09. Riot is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 15.21. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.72%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.22%. The volatility of related hype on Riot Blockchain is about 1278.89%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 15.41. About 70.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.8. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Riot Blockchain last dividend was issued on the 12th of October 2017. The entity had 1:8 split on the 31st of March 2016. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Riot Blockchain to cross-verify your projections.Riot Blockchain Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Riot Blockchain's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Riot Blockchain's future price movements. Getting to know how Riot Blockchain's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Riot Blockchain may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CIFR | Cipher Mining | (0.15) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 12.10 | (10.41) | 36.13 | |
| MARA | Marathon Digital Holdings | 0.24 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 6.57 | (7.12) | 20.04 | |
| BMNR | Bitmine Immersion Technologies | 1.18 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 10.27 | (10.47) | 32.25 | |
| XP | Xp Inc | (0.24) | 9 per month | 2.86 | 0.06 | 4.64 | (4.83) | 15.10 | |
| WULF | Terawulf | (0.03) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 10.37 | (9.48) | 24.71 | |
| STEP | Stepstone Group | 1.99 | 9 per month | 1.60 | 0.06 | 3.30 | (2.96) | 7.04 | |
| ONB | Old National Bancorp | 0.89 | 8 per month | 1.07 | 0.17 | 2.93 | (1.59) | 7.78 | |
| HUT | Hut 8 Corp | (1.72) | 11 per month | 7.02 | 0.05 | 13.61 | (12.53) | 28.54 | |
| UWMC | UWM Holdings Corp | (0.01) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 6.11 | (5.41) | 19.21 | |
| CFR | CullenFrost Bankers | 1.83 | 9 per month | 0.80 | 0.11 | 3.15 | (1.29) | 7.64 |
Other Forecasting Options for Riot Blockchain
For every potential investor in Riot, whether a beginner or expert, Riot Blockchain's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Riot Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Riot. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Riot Blockchain's price trends.Riot Blockchain Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Riot Blockchain stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Riot Blockchain could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Riot Blockchain by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Riot Blockchain Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Riot Blockchain stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Riot Blockchain shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Riot Blockchain stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Riot Blockchain entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Riot Blockchain Risk Indicators
The analysis of Riot Blockchain's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Riot Blockchain's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting riot stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.93 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.16 | |||
| Variance | 26.58 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Riot Blockchain
The number of cover stories for Riot Blockchain depends on current market conditions and Riot Blockchain's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Riot Blockchain is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Riot Blockchain's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Riot Blockchain Short Properties
Riot Blockchain's future price predictability will typically decrease when Riot Blockchain's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Riot Blockchain often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Riot Blockchain's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Riot Blockchain's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 318.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 412.1 M |
Additional Tools for Riot Stock Analysis
When running Riot Blockchain's price analysis, check to measure Riot Blockchain's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Riot Blockchain is operating at the current time. Most of Riot Blockchain's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Riot Blockchain's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Riot Blockchain's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Riot Blockchain to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.