Rocket Lab Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| RKLB Stock | USD 80.07 5.61 6.55% |
Rocket Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Rocket Lab stock prices and determine the direction of Rocket Lab USA's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Rocket Lab's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Rocket Lab's share price is at 53 indicating that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Rocket Lab, making its price go up or down. Momentum 53
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Rocket Lab hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Rocket Lab USA from the perspective of Rocket Lab response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Rocket Lab USA on the next trading day is expected to be 80.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.78 and the sum of the absolute errors of 166.98. Rocket Lab after-hype prediction price | USD 80.65 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Rocket Lab to cross-verify your projections. Rocket Lab Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Rocket price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Rocket using various technical indicators. When you analyze Rocket charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Rocket Lab Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 2nd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Rocket Lab USA on the next trading day is expected to be 80.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.78, mean absolute percentage error of 14.65, and the sum of the absolute errors of 166.98.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Rocket Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Rocket Lab's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Rocket Lab Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Rocket Lab | Rocket Lab Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Rocket Lab Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Rocket Lab's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Rocket Lab's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 74.16 and 85.98, respectively. We have considered Rocket Lab's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Rocket Lab stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Rocket Lab stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.9572 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.3917 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.783 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0431 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 166.98 |
Predictive Modules for Rocket Lab
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Rocket Lab USA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Rocket Lab After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Rocket Lab at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Rocket Lab or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Rocket Lab, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Rocket Lab Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Rocket Lab's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Rocket Lab's historical news coverage. Rocket Lab's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 74.74 and 86.56, respectively. We have considered Rocket Lab's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Rocket Lab is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Rocket Lab USA is based on 3 months time horizon.
Rocket Lab Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Rocket Lab is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Rocket Lab backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Rocket Lab, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.60 | 5.91 | 0.58 | 1.05 | 4 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 4 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
80.07 | 80.65 | 0.72 |
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Rocket Lab Hype Timeline
Rocket Lab USA is at this time traded for 80.07. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.58, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -1.05. Rocket is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 80.65 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.72%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.6%. The volatility of related hype on Rocket Lab is about 336.22%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 79.02. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 436.21 M. Net Loss for the year was (190.18 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 175.77 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 4 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Rocket Lab to cross-verify your projections.Rocket Lab Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Rocket Lab's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Rocket Lab's future price movements. Getting to know how Rocket Lab's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Rocket Lab may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| HEI | Heico | (5.78) | 40 per month | 1.29 | 0.02 | 2.42 | (2.28) | 8.20 | |
| UAL | United Airlines Holdings | (1.76) | 6 per month | 2.38 | 0.02 | 4.44 | (3.91) | 11.82 | |
| WAB | Westinghouse Air Brake | (0.49) | 7 per month | 0.99 | 0.14 | 2.58 | (1.54) | 4.99 | |
| VRSK | Verisk Analytics | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.95 | (0.02) | 1.76 | (1.34) | 4.84 | |
| OTIS | Otis Worldwide Corp | 0.42 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 1.52 | (2.00) | 5.07 | |
| XYL | Xylem Inc | (1.70) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 1.70 | (2.11) | 8.37 | |
| ESLT | Elbit Systems | (6.21) | 10 per month | 1.41 | 0.25 | 3.77 | (2.68) | 10.89 | |
| EME | EMCOR Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.90 | 0.04 | 3.24 | (3.49) | 8.32 | |
| FIX | Comfort Systems USA | (0.30) | 19 per month | 3.09 | 0.08 | 4.01 | (5.84) | 14.58 |
Other Forecasting Options for Rocket Lab
For every potential investor in Rocket, whether a beginner or expert, Rocket Lab's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Rocket Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Rocket. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Rocket Lab's price trends.Rocket Lab Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Rocket Lab stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Rocket Lab could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Rocket Lab by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Rocket Lab Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Rocket Lab stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Rocket Lab shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Rocket Lab stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Rocket Lab USA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Rocket Lab Risk Indicators
The analysis of Rocket Lab's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Rocket Lab's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting rocket stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.39 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.77 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.91 | |||
| Variance | 34.93 | |||
| Downside Variance | 31.07 | |||
| Semi Variance | 22.71 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (4.95) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Rocket Lab
The number of cover stories for Rocket Lab depends on current market conditions and Rocket Lab's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Rocket Lab is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Rocket Lab's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Rocket Lab Short Properties
Rocket Lab's future price predictability will typically decrease when Rocket Lab's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Rocket Lab USA often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Rocket Lab's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Rocket Lab's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 495.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 419 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Rocket Lab to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Commodity Directory module to find actively traded commodities issued by global exchanges.
Is Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Rocket Lab. Anticipated expansion of Rocket directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Rocket Lab assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
The market value of Rocket Lab USA is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Rocket that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Rocket Lab's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Rocket Lab's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Rocket Lab's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Rocket Lab's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Rocket Lab's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Rocket Lab should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Meanwhile, Rocket Lab's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.