RLX Technology Stock Forward View - Polynomial Regression
| RLX Stock | USD 2.39 0.02 0.83% |
RLX Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of RLX Technology's share price is below 20 indicating that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using RLX Technology hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of RLX Technology from the perspective of RLX Technology response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of RLX Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 2.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.11. RLX Technology after-hype prediction price | USD 2.39 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of RLX Technology to cross-verify your projections. RLX Technology Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine RLX price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for RLX using various technical indicators. When you analyze RLX charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
RLX Technology Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 11th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of RLX Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 2.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.11.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict RLX Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that RLX Technology's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
RLX Technology Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest RLX Technology | RLX Technology Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
RLX Technology Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting RLX Technology's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. RLX Technology's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.37 and 4.58, respectively. We have considered RLX Technology's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of RLX Technology stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent RLX Technology stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 111.8936 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0346 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0151 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.1085 |
Predictive Modules for RLX Technology
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as RLX Technology. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.RLX Technology After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of RLX Technology at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in RLX Technology or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of RLX Technology, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
RLX Technology Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting RLX Technology's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on RLX Technology's historical news coverage. RLX Technology's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.27 and 4.51, respectively. We have considered RLX Technology's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
RLX Technology is relatively risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of RLX Technology is based on 3 months time horizon.
RLX Technology Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as RLX Technology is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading RLX Technology backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with RLX Technology, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.11 | 2.10 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
2.39 | 2.39 | 0.42 |
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RLX Technology Hype Timeline
On the 10th of February RLX Technology is traded for 2.39. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.01. RLX is expected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 2.39. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is insignificant. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.42%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.11%. The volatility of related hype on RLX Technology is about 4468.09%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2.38. About 91.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.27. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. RLX Technology last dividend was issued on the 26th of January 2026. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of RLX Technology to cross-verify your projections.RLX Technology Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to RLX Technology's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict RLX Technology's future price movements. Getting to know how RLX Technology's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how RLX Technology may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| IPAR | Inter Parfums | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.73 | 0.08 | 2.62 | (2.27) | 8.82 | |
| FIZZ | National Beverage Corp | 0.32 | 7 per month | 1.41 | 0 | 2.94 | (2.42) | 7.52 | |
| LRN | Stride Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.92 | 0.18 | 2.99 | (1.87) | 15.16 | |
| CHA | Chagee Holdings Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 5.85 | (5.19) | 15.71 | |
| TPB | Turning Point Brands | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.53 | 0.16 | 3.77 | (2.59) | 9.49 | |
| CHEF | The Chefs Warehouse | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.41 | 0.01 | 3.12 | (2.24) | 8.54 | |
| FRPT | Freshpet | (0.79) | 8 per month | 1.45 | 0.13 | 3.92 | (2.64) | 11.53 | |
| TBBB | BBB Foods | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.30 | 0.14 | 4.52 | (2.84) | 9.87 | |
| FLO | Flowers Foods | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.93 | 0 | 4.21 | (3.52) | 11.13 | |
| COCO | Vita Coco | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.81 | 0.16 | 4.46 | (3.25) | 11.79 |
Other Forecasting Options for RLX Technology
For every potential investor in RLX, whether a beginner or expert, RLX Technology's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. RLX Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in RLX. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying RLX Technology's price trends.RLX Technology Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with RLX Technology stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of RLX Technology could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing RLX Technology by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
RLX Technology Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how RLX Technology stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading RLX Technology shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying RLX Technology stock market strength indicators, traders can identify RLX Technology entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 44148.61 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.33) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 2.41 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 2.4 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.03) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.02) |
RLX Technology Risk Indicators
The analysis of RLX Technology's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in RLX Technology's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting rlx stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.43 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.49 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.1 | |||
| Variance | 4.42 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.13 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.21 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.85) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for RLX Technology
The number of cover stories for RLX Technology depends on current market conditions and RLX Technology's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that RLX Technology is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about RLX Technology's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios
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RLX Technology Short Properties
RLX Technology's future price predictability will typically decrease when RLX Technology's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of RLX Technology often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential RLX Technology's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. RLX Technology's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.3 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 8.5 B |
Additional Tools for RLX Stock Analysis
When running RLX Technology's price analysis, check to measure RLX Technology's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy RLX Technology is operating at the current time. Most of RLX Technology's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of RLX Technology's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move RLX Technology's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of RLX Technology to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.