Rumble Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| RUM Stock | USD 5.78 0.43 8.04% |
Rumble Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of now the relative strength index (rsi) of Rumble's share price is below 20 indicating that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Rumble hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Rumble Inc from the perspective of Rumble response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Rumble Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 5.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.66. Rumble after-hype prediction price | USD 5.75 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Rumble to cross-verify your projections. Rumble Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Rumble price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Rumble using various technical indicators. When you analyze Rumble charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Rumble Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 8th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Rumble Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 5.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.66.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Rumble Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Rumble's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Rumble Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Rumble | Rumble Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Rumble Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Rumble's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Rumble's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1.50 and 10.06, respectively. We have considered Rumble's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Rumble stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Rumble stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.5987 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.006 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1943 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0309 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 11.66 |
Predictive Modules for Rumble
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Rumble Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Rumble's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Rumble After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Rumble at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Rumble or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Rumble, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Rumble Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Rumble's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Rumble's historical news coverage. Rumble's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1.44 and 10.06, respectively. We have considered Rumble's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Rumble is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Rumble Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Rumble Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Rumble is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Rumble backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Rumble, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.12 | 4.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
5.78 | 5.75 | 0.52 |
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Rumble Hype Timeline
On the 7th of February Rumble Inc is traded for 5.78. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Rumble is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 5.75. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is insignificant. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.52%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.12%. The volatility of related hype on Rumble is about 17833.33%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 5.78. About 49.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company recorded a loss per share of 1.45. Rumble Inc had not issued any dividends in recent years. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Rumble to cross-verify your projections.Rumble Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Rumble's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Rumble's future price movements. Getting to know how Rumble's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Rumble may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| RNG | Ringcentral | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.96 | (0.02) | 4.48 | (5.30) | 11.10 | |
| NATL | NCR Atleos | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.77 | 0.06 | 3.55 | (2.69) | 12.49 | |
| GRND | Grindr Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.31) | 2.62 | (3.69) | 12.94 | |
| ALRM | Alarm Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.50 | (2.86) | 11.30 | |
| BRZE | Braze Inc | (0.32) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 3.40 | (8.25) | 27.69 | |
| YOU | Clear Secure | (0.97) | 11 per month | 2.02 | 0.03 | 5.49 | (3.81) | 18.67 | |
| BLKB | Blackbaud | 1.05 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 2.57 | (4.33) | 12.40 | |
| KC | Kingsoft Cloud Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.17 | 0.04 | 8.10 | (4.71) | 29.29 | |
| SPNS | Sapiens International | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.33 | (0.09) | 1,000.00 | |
| WBTN | WEBTOON Entertainment Common | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 3.63 | (4.43) | 27.15 |
Other Forecasting Options for Rumble
For every potential investor in Rumble, whether a beginner or expert, Rumble's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Rumble Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Rumble. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Rumble's price trends.Rumble Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Rumble stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Rumble could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Rumble by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Rumble Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Rumble stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Rumble shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Rumble stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Rumble Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Rumble Risk Indicators
The analysis of Rumble's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Rumble's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting rumble stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.16 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.31 | |||
| Variance | 18.59 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Rumble
The number of cover stories for Rumble depends on current market conditions and Rumble's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Rumble is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Rumble's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Rumble Short Properties
Rumble's future price predictability will typically decrease when Rumble's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Rumble Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Rumble's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Rumble's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 204.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 114 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Rumble to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Commodity Directory module to find actively traded commodities issued by global exchanges.
Will Interactive Media & Services sector continue expanding? Could Rumble diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Rumble. Anticipated expansion of Rumble directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Rumble data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Rumble Inc's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on Rumble's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate Rumble's intrinsic value - its true economic worth - which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Since Rumble's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Rumble's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Rumble should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. However, Rumble's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.