Revolve Group Stock Forward View
| RVLV Stock | USD 27.65 0.55 1.95% |
Revolve Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The value of RSI of Revolve Group's share price is at 50 indicating that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Revolve Group, making its price go up or down. Momentum 50
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Revolve Group hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Revolve Group LLC from the perspective of Revolve Group response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Revolve Group LLC on the next trading day is expected to be 26.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.53 and the sum of the absolute errors of 32.34. Revolve Group after-hype prediction price | USD 28.1 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Revolve Group to cross-verify your projections. Revolve Group Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Revolve price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Revolve using various technical indicators. When you analyze Revolve charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Revolve Group Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 2nd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Revolve Group LLC on the next trading day is expected to be 26.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.53, mean absolute percentage error of 0.44, and the sum of the absolute errors of 32.34.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Revolve Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Revolve Group's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Revolve Group Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Revolve Group | Revolve Group Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Revolve Group Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Revolve Group's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Revolve Group's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 23.74 and 30.09, respectively. We have considered Revolve Group's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Revolve Group stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Revolve Group stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.2979 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5302 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0205 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 32.3402 |
Predictive Modules for Revolve Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Revolve Group LLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Revolve Group After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Revolve Group at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Revolve Group or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Revolve Group, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Revolve Group Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Revolve Group's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Revolve Group's historical news coverage. Revolve Group's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 24.93 and 31.27, respectively. We have considered Revolve Group's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Revolve Group is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Revolve Group LLC is based on 3 months time horizon.
Revolve Group Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Revolve Group is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Revolve Group backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Revolve Group, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.50 | 3.17 | 0.45 | 0.01 | 7 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
27.65 | 28.10 | 1.63 |
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Revolve Group Hype Timeline
Revolve Group LLC is at this time traded for 27.65. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.45, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Revolve is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 28.1 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price increase on the next news is projected to be 1.63%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.5%. The volatility of related hype on Revolve Group is about 28818.18%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 27.64. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.13 B. Net Income was 48.77 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 637.16 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Revolve Group to cross-verify your projections.Revolve Group Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Revolve Group's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Revolve Group's future price movements. Getting to know how Revolve Group's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Revolve Group may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| RERE | ATRenew Inc DRC | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.86 | 0.24 | 6.33 | (3.03) | 13.61 | |
| SBH | Sally Beauty Holdings | (0.01) | 11 per month | 2.76 | (0.01) | 4.28 | (4.37) | 11.38 | |
| NEGG | Newegg Commerce | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 9.43 | (8.60) | 37.88 | |
| TRS | TriMas | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 2.27 | (3.15) | 6.74 | |
| WINA | Winmark | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.85 | 0.06 | 3.40 | (3.00) | 9.64 | |
| PZZA | Papa Johns International | 0.1 | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 4.41 | (4.59) | 11.95 | |
| TILE | Interface | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.02 | 0.19 | 2.87 | (2.07) | 8.15 | |
| MBC | MasterBrand | (0.20) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 5.50 | (3.83) | 15.86 | |
| ARCO | Arcos Dorados Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.15 | 0.12 | 3.86 | (2.05) | 8.77 | |
| EVGO | Evgo Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 5.77 | (5.71) | 14.89 |
Other Forecasting Options for Revolve Group
For every potential investor in Revolve, whether a beginner or expert, Revolve Group's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Revolve Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Revolve. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Revolve Group's price trends.Revolve Group Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Revolve Group stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Revolve Group could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Revolve Group by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Revolve Group Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Revolve Group stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Revolve Group shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Revolve Group stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Revolve Group LLC entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Revolve Group Risk Indicators
The analysis of Revolve Group's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Revolve Group's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting revolve stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.49 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.2 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.17 | |||
| Variance | 10.06 | |||
| Downside Variance | 6.28 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.85 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.95) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Revolve Group
The number of cover stories for Revolve Group depends on current market conditions and Revolve Group's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Revolve Group is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Revolve Group's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Revolve Group Short Properties
Revolve Group's future price predictability will typically decrease when Revolve Group's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Revolve Group LLC often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Revolve Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Revolve Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 71.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 256.6 M |
Additional Tools for Revolve Stock Analysis
When running Revolve Group's price analysis, check to measure Revolve Group's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Revolve Group is operating at the current time. Most of Revolve Group's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Revolve Group's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Revolve Group's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Revolve Group to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.