Rolls Royce Pink Sheet Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| RYCEY Stock | USD 17.22 0.16 0.94% |
Rolls Pink Sheet outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Rolls Royce's pink sheet price is slightly above 61 indicating that the pink sheet is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Rolls, making its price go up or down. Momentum 61
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Rolls Royce hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Rolls Royce Holdings from the perspective of Rolls Royce response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Rolls Royce Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 17.22 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.92. Rolls Royce after-hype prediction price | USD 17.33 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Rolls |
Rolls Royce Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Rolls price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Rolls using various technical indicators. When you analyze Rolls charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Rolls Royce Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Rolls Royce Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 17.22 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24, mean absolute percentage error of 0.09, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.92.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Rolls Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Rolls Royce's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Rolls Royce Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
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Rolls Royce Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Rolls Royce's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Rolls Royce's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 15.53 and 18.91, respectively. We have considered Rolls Royce's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Rolls Royce pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Rolls Royce pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.0495 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.047 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.236 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0154 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 13.925 |
Predictive Modules for Rolls Royce
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Rolls Royce Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Rolls Royce's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Rolls Royce After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Rolls Royce at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Rolls Royce or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Rolls Royce, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Rolls Royce Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Rolls Royce's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Rolls Royce's historical news coverage. Rolls Royce's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 15.64 and 19.02, respectively. We have considered Rolls Royce's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Rolls Royce is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Rolls Royce Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
Rolls Royce Pink Sheet Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Rolls Royce is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Rolls Royce backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Rolls Royce, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.22 | 1.69 | 0.11 | 0.15 | 25 Events / Month | 12 Events / Month | In about 25 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
17.22 | 17.33 | 0.64 |
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Rolls Royce Hype Timeline
Rolls Royce Holdings is at this time traded for 17.22. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.11, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.15. Rolls is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 17.33 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is estimated to be 0.64%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.22%. The volatility of related hype on Rolls Royce is about 246.11%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 17.37. The company reported the revenue of 11.22 B. Net Income was 120 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 2.14 B. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 25 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Rolls Royce to cross-verify your projections.Rolls Royce Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Rolls Royce's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Rolls Royce's future price movements. Getting to know how Rolls Royce's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Rolls Royce may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Other Forecasting Options for Rolls Royce
For every potential investor in Rolls, whether a beginner or expert, Rolls Royce's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Rolls Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Rolls. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Rolls Royce's price trends.View Rolls Royce Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Rolls Royce Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Rolls Royce pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Rolls Royce shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Rolls Royce pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Rolls Royce Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Rolls Royce Risk Indicators
The analysis of Rolls Royce's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Rolls Royce's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting rolls pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.29 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.43 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.66 | |||
| Variance | 2.75 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.48 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.05 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.40) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Rolls Royce
The number of cover stories for Rolls Royce depends on current market conditions and Rolls Royce's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Rolls Royce is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Rolls Royce's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for Rolls Pink Sheet Analysis
When running Rolls Royce's price analysis, check to measure Rolls Royce's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Rolls Royce is operating at the current time. Most of Rolls Royce's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Rolls Royce's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Rolls Royce's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Rolls Royce to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.