StandardAero Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| SARO Stock | 29.50 0.40 1.34% |
StandardAero Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although StandardAero's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of StandardAero's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of StandardAero fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength indicator of StandardAero's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.348 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.2429 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.8352 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.1745 | Wall Street Target Price 36.25 |
Using StandardAero hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of StandardAero from the perspective of StandardAero response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards StandardAero using StandardAero's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards StandardAero using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of StandardAero's stock price.
StandardAero Short Interest
An investor who is long StandardAero may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about StandardAero and may potentially protect profits, hedge StandardAero with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 28.3421 | Short Percent 0.0696 | Short Ratio 4.6 | Shares Short Prior Month 7.6 M | 50 Day MA 28.9626 |
StandardAero Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of StandardAero on the next trading day is expected to be 29.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.42 and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.06.StandardAero Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to StandardAero's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in StandardAero. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding StandardAero can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around StandardAero. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of StandardAero's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about StandardAero.
StandardAero Implied Volatility | 0.57 |
StandardAero's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of StandardAero stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if StandardAero's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that StandardAero stock will not fluctuate a lot when StandardAero's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of StandardAero on the next trading day is expected to be 29.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.42 and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.06. StandardAero after-hype prediction price | USD 29.42 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
StandardAero | Build AI portfolio with StandardAero Stock |
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current StandardAero contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that StandardAero will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0356% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With StandardAero trading at USD 29.5, that is roughly USD 0.0105 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating StandardAero's daily price movement you should consider acquiring StandardAero options at the current volatility level of 0.57%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 StandardAero Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast StandardAero's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in StandardAero's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for StandardAero stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current StandardAero's open interest, investors have to compare it to StandardAero's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of StandardAero is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in StandardAero. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
StandardAero Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine StandardAero price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for StandardAero using various technical indicators. When you analyze StandardAero charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
StandardAero Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 6th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of StandardAero on the next trading day is expected to be 29.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.42, mean absolute percentage error of 0.29, and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.06.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict StandardAero Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that StandardAero's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
StandardAero Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest StandardAero | StandardAero Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
StandardAero Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting StandardAero's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. StandardAero's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 27.60 and 31.40, respectively. We have considered StandardAero's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of StandardAero stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent StandardAero stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.0221 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0443 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4177 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0148 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 25.06 |
Predictive Modules for StandardAero
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as StandardAero. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.StandardAero After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of StandardAero at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in StandardAero or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of StandardAero, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
StandardAero Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting StandardAero's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on StandardAero's historical news coverage. StandardAero's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 27.52 and 31.32, respectively. We have considered StandardAero's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
StandardAero is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of StandardAero is based on 3 months time horizon.
StandardAero Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as StandardAero is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading StandardAero backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with StandardAero, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.20 | 1.90 | 0.48 | 0.06 | 11 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
29.50 | 29.42 | 1.61 |
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StandardAero Hype Timeline
StandardAero is at this time traded for 29.50. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.48, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.06. StandardAero is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 29.42. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 79.17%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -1.61%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.2%. The volatility of related hype on StandardAero is about 665.37%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 29.56. About 91.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of StandardAero was at this time reported as 7.73. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.24. StandardAero had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of StandardAero to cross-verify your projections.StandardAero Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to StandardAero's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict StandardAero's future price movements. Getting to know how StandardAero's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how StandardAero may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DRS | Leonardo DRS Common | (0.24) | 8 per month | 1.53 | 0.04 | 3.77 | (2.63) | 9.17 | |
| CAE | CAE Inc | 0.29 | 9 per month | 1.63 | 0.06 | 3.17 | (2.58) | 9.61 | |
| UHAL | U Haul Holding | (0.55) | 9 per month | 1.32 | 0.07 | 2.78 | (2.47) | 9.39 | |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings | 3.66 | 7 per month | 3.14 | 0.03 | 4.15 | (4.80) | 10.93 | |
| FLS | Flowserve | (0.54) | 9 per month | 1.20 | 0.14 | 2.46 | (2.28) | 8.50 | |
| AIT | Applied Industrial Technologies | (3.48) | 9 per month | 1.60 | 0.08 | 2.73 | (2.10) | 9.70 | |
| DCI | Donaldson | 0.03 | 9 per month | 0.74 | 0.21 | 2.43 | (1.74) | 9.29 | |
| ERJ | ERJ Old | (0.31) | 9 per month | 2.08 | 0.04 | 4.08 | (3.91) | 9.21 | |
| POOL | Pool Corporation | 3.71 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.03 | (2.65) | 6.97 |
Other Forecasting Options for StandardAero
For every potential investor in StandardAero, whether a beginner or expert, StandardAero's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. StandardAero Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in StandardAero. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying StandardAero's price trends.StandardAero Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with StandardAero stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of StandardAero could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing StandardAero by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
StandardAero Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how StandardAero stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading StandardAero shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying StandardAero stock market strength indicators, traders can identify StandardAero entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 29.5 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 29.5 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.20) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.40) |
StandardAero Risk Indicators
The analysis of StandardAero's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in StandardAero's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting standardaero stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.46 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.84 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.89 | |||
| Variance | 3.57 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.21 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.38 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.50) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for StandardAero
The number of cover stories for StandardAero depends on current market conditions and StandardAero's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that StandardAero is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about StandardAero's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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StandardAero Short Properties
StandardAero's future price predictability will typically decrease when StandardAero's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of StandardAero often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential StandardAero's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. StandardAero's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 289.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 102.6 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of StandardAero to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in StandardAero Stock, please use our How to Invest in StandardAero guide.You can also try the Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.
Will Aerospace & Defense sector continue expanding? Could StandardAero diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of StandardAero. If investors know StandardAero will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every StandardAero data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.348 | Earnings Share 0.56 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.204 | Return On Assets |
Understanding StandardAero requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects StandardAero's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value - what StandardAero's is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push StandardAero's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between StandardAero's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if StandardAero is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. In contrast, StandardAero's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.