SBC Communications Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| SBC Stock | 4.37 0.10 2.24% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of SBC Communications on the next trading day is expected to be 4.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.39. SBC Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast SBC Communications stock prices and determine the direction of SBC Communications's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of SBC Communications' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength index (rsi) of SBC Communications' share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 3.194 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.12 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.4525 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.48 | Wall Street Target Price 8.1667 |
Using SBC Communications hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of SBC Communications from the perspective of SBC Communications response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
SBC Communications Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to SBC Communications' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in SBC. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding SBC can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around SBC Communications. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of SBC Communications on the next trading day is expected to be 4.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.39.
SBC Communications after-hype prediction price | USD 4.52 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of SBC Communications to cross-verify your projections. SBC Communications Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine SBC price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for SBC using various technical indicators. When you analyze SBC charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
SBC Communications Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the SBC Communications' financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2010-12-31 | Previous Quarter 143.8 M | Current Value 102.6 M | Quarterly Volatility 30.5 M |
SBC Communications Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of SBC Communications on the next trading day is expected to be 4.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.39.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict SBC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that SBC Communications' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
SBC Communications Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest SBC Communications | SBC Communications Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
SBC Communications Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting SBC Communications' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. SBC Communications' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1.14 and 7.70, respectively. We have considered SBC Communications' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of SBC Communications stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent SBC Communications stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.6178 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0884 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0239 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 5.39 |
Predictive Modules for SBC Communications
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as SBC Communications. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.SBC Communications After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of SBC Communications at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in SBC Communications or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of SBC Communications, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
SBC Communications Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting SBC Communications' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on SBC Communications' historical news coverage. SBC Communications' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1.26 and 7.78, respectively. We have considered SBC Communications' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
SBC Communications is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of SBC Communications is based on 3 months time horizon.
SBC Communications Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as SBC Communications is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading SBC Communications backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with SBC Communications, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.32 | 3.28 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 10 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
4.37 | 4.52 | 1.12 |
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SBC Communications Hype Timeline
On the 23rd of January SBC Communications is traded for 4.37. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. SBC is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 4.52 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 1.12%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.32%. The volatility of related hype on SBC Communications is about 3452.63%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 4.40. The company reported the last year's revenue of 205.42 M. Total Income to common stockholders was 46.61 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 132.23 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of SBC Communications to cross-verify your projections.SBC Communications Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to SBC Communications' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict SBC Communications' future price movements. Getting to know how SBC Communications' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how SBC Communications may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ACCO | Acco Brands | 0.01 | 43 per month | 2.05 | 0.02 | 3.25 | (3.17) | 9.71 | |
| KNOP | KNOT Offshore Partners | (0.21) | 9 per month | 1.18 | 0.09 | 3.99 | (2.14) | 12.60 | |
| LXFR | Luxfer Holdings PLC | 0.31 | 8 per month | 1.43 | 0.14 | 2.96 | (2.64) | 8.47 | |
| SPIR | Spire Global | 0.82 | 12 per month | 6.71 | 0.02 | 8.32 | (6.80) | 31.88 | |
| MTW | Manitowoc | 0.18 | 10 per month | 2.26 | 0.11 | 4.54 | (3.72) | 14.96 | |
| WNC | Wabash National | 0.22 | 11 per month | 2.17 | 0.07 | 5.40 | (3.78) | 16.28 | |
| FLYX | flyExclusive | 0.26 | 9 per month | 7.61 | 0.04 | 11.96 | (11.89) | 161.87 | |
| BBCP | Concrete Pumping Holdings | 0.33 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.55 | (4.05) | 15.27 | |
| ANPA | Rich Sparkle Holdings | (0.84) | 6 per month | 10.31 | 0.11 | 21.25 | (23.66) | 295.76 | |
| PANL | Pangaea Logistic | (0.13) | 12 per month | 1.22 | 0.22 | 5.11 | (2.91) | 22.74 |
Other Forecasting Options for SBC Communications
For every potential investor in SBC, whether a beginner or expert, SBC Communications' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. SBC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in SBC. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying SBC Communications' price trends.SBC Communications Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with SBC Communications stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of SBC Communications could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing SBC Communications by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
SBC Communications Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how SBC Communications stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading SBC Communications shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying SBC Communications stock market strength indicators, traders can identify SBC Communications entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 238.63 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (1.00) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 4.39 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 4.38 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.07) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.10) |
SBC Communications Risk Indicators
The analysis of SBC Communications' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in SBC Communications' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting sbc stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.44 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.06 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.39 | |||
| Variance | 11.5 | |||
| Downside Variance | 10.76 | |||
| Semi Variance | 9.37 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.84) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for SBC Communications
The number of cover stories for SBC Communications depends on current market conditions and SBC Communications' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that SBC Communications is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about SBC Communications' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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SBC Communications Short Properties
SBC Communications' future price predictability will typically decrease when SBC Communications' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of SBC Communications often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential SBC Communications' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. SBC Communications' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 96.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 125 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of SBC Communications to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade SBC Stock refer to our How to Trade SBC Stock guide.You can also try the Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.
Is Health Care Providers & Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of SBC Communications. If investors know SBC will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about SBC Communications listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 3.194 | Earnings Share 0.42 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.18) | Return On Assets |
The market value of SBC Communications is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of SBC that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of SBC Communications' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is SBC Communications' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because SBC Communications' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect SBC Communications' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between SBC Communications' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if SBC Communications is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, SBC Communications' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.