Starbucks Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

SBUX Stock  USD 95.83  0.60  0.62%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Starbucks on the next trading day is expected to be 90.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.10 and the sum of the absolute errors of 130.05. Starbucks Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength indicator of Starbucks' stock price is slightly above 63. This usually implies that the stock is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Starbucks, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 63

 Buy Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Starbucks' future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Starbucks, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Starbucks' stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.85)
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.6688
EPS Estimate Current Year
2.3474
EPS Estimate Next Year
2.9747
Wall Street Target Price
95.4839
Using Starbucks hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Starbucks from the perspective of Starbucks response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Starbucks using Starbucks' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Starbucks using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Starbucks' stock price.

Starbucks Short Interest

An investor who is long Starbucks may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Starbucks and may potentially protect profits, hedge Starbucks with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
86.9322
Short Percent
0.0396
Short Ratio
5.08
Shares Short Prior Month
47.2 M
50 Day MA
86.4738

Starbucks Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Starbucks' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Starbucks. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Starbucks can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Starbucks. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.

Starbucks Implied Volatility

    
  0.41  
Starbucks' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Starbucks stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Starbucks' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Starbucks stock will not fluctuate a lot when Starbucks' options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Starbucks on the next trading day is expected to be 90.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.10 and the sum of the absolute errors of 130.05.

Starbucks after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 0.0  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Starbucks to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Starbucks Stock please use our How to Invest in Starbucks guide.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Starbucks contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Starbucks will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0256% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Starbucks trading at USD 95.83, that is roughly USD 0.0246 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Starbucks' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Starbucks options at the current volatility level of 0.41%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.

Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Starbucks Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Starbucks' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Starbucks' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Starbucks stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Starbucks' open interest, investors have to compare it to Starbucks' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Starbucks is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Starbucks. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.

Starbucks Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Starbucks price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Starbucks using various technical indicators. When you analyze Starbucks charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Starbucks price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Starbucks Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Starbucks on the next trading day is expected to be 90.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.10, mean absolute percentage error of 6.34, and the sum of the absolute errors of 130.05.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Starbucks Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Starbucks' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Starbucks Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest StarbucksStarbucks Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Starbucks Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Starbucks' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Starbucks' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 88.88 and 92.67, respectively. We have considered Starbucks' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
95.83
90.77
Expected Value
92.67
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Starbucks stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Starbucks stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria121.7954
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation2.0976
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0242
SAESum of the absolute errors130.0505
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Starbucks historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Starbucks

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Starbucks. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Starbucks' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.000.001.89
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
1.1222.3724.26
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
81.1288.5595.99
Details
34 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
86.8995.48105.99
Details

Starbucks After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Starbucks at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Starbucks or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Starbucks, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Starbucks Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Starbucks' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Starbucks' historical news coverage. Starbucks' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.00 and 1.89, respectively. We have considered Starbucks' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
95.83
0.00
After-hype Price
1.89
Upside
Starbucks is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Starbucks is based on 3 months time horizon.

Starbucks Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Starbucks is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Starbucks backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Starbucks, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.19 
1.90
  0.17 
  0.88 
6 Events / Month
8 Events / Month
In about 6 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
95.83
0.00
0.00 
213.48  
Notes

Starbucks Hype Timeline

Starbucks is at this time traded for 95.83. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.17, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.88. Starbucks is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.19%. %. The volatility of related hype on Starbucks is about 40.9%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 96.71. About 86.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.53. Starbucks last dividend was issued on the 13th of February 2026. The entity had 2:1 split on the 9th of April 2015. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 6 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Starbucks to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Starbucks Stock please use our How to Invest in Starbucks guide.

Starbucks Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Starbucks' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Starbucks' future price movements. Getting to know how Starbucks' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Starbucks may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
NKENike Inc 0.05 9 per month 0.00 (0.05) 3.87 (3.07) 14.43 
SESea 0.51 8 per month 0.00 (0.17) 3.52 (4.28) 12.26 
ABNBAirbnb Inc(6.71)7 per month 1.69  0.0002  2.66 (2.53) 8.82 
ORLYOReilly Automotive(0.42)8 per month 0.00 (0.10) 2.32 (2.35) 6.34 
RCLRoyal Caribbean Cruises(0.15)8 per month 0.00 (0.05) 4.60 (4.25) 13.13 
RACEFerrari NV(0.15)5 per month 0.00 (0.21) 2.01 (2.82) 7.22 
MARMarriott International(1.37)9 per month 1.01  0.14  3.48 (1.63) 8.46 
MELIMercadoLibre 46.25 8 per month 2.66  0.01  3.81 (3.55) 14.15 
CMGChipotle Mexican Grill 1.36 9 per month 0.00 (0.03) 4.22 (2.58) 19.94 
CVNACarvana Co 7.09 9 per month 3.88  0.13  6.78 (6.31) 19.22 

Other Forecasting Options for Starbucks

For every potential investor in Starbucks, whether a beginner or expert, Starbucks' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Starbucks Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Starbucks. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Starbucks' price trends.

Starbucks Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Starbucks stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Starbucks could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Starbucks by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Starbucks Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Starbucks stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Starbucks shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Starbucks stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Starbucks entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Starbucks Risk Indicators

The analysis of Starbucks' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Starbucks' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting starbucks stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Starbucks

The number of cover stories for Starbucks depends on current market conditions and Starbucks' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Starbucks is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Starbucks' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Starbucks Short Properties

Starbucks' future price predictability will typically decrease when Starbucks' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Starbucks often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Starbucks' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Starbucks' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding1.1 B
Cash And Short Term Investments3.5 B

Additional Tools for Starbucks Stock Analysis

When running Starbucks' price analysis, check to measure Starbucks' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Starbucks is operating at the current time. Most of Starbucks' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Starbucks' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Starbucks' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Starbucks to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.