Stellus Capital Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| SCM Stock | USD 12.87 0.03 0.23% |
Stellus Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of now, The value of RSI of Stellus Capital's share price is at 54. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Stellus Capital, making its price go up or down. Momentum 54
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Stellus Capital hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Stellus Capital Investment from the perspective of Stellus Capital response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Stellus Capital Investment on the next trading day is expected to be 12.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.66. Stellus Capital after-hype prediction price | USD 12.87 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Stellus Capital to cross-verify your projections. Stellus Capital Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Stellus price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Stellus using various technical indicators. When you analyze Stellus charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Stellus Capital Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Stellus Capital Investment on the next trading day is expected to be 12.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.66.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Stellus Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Stellus Capital's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stellus Capital Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Stellus Capital | Stellus Capital Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Stellus Capital Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Stellus Capital's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Stellus Capital's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 11.52 and 14.20, respectively. We have considered Stellus Capital's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Stellus Capital stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Stellus Capital stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0154 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1298 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0106 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.6591 |
Predictive Modules for Stellus Capital
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Stellus Capital Inve. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Stellus Capital's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Stellus Capital After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Stellus Capital at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Stellus Capital or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Stellus Capital, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Stellus Capital Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Stellus Capital's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Stellus Capital's historical news coverage. Stellus Capital's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 11.53 and 14.21, respectively. We have considered Stellus Capital's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Stellus Capital is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Stellus Capital Inve is based on 3 months time horizon.
Stellus Capital Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Stellus Capital is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Stellus Capital backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Stellus Capital, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.14 | 1.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
12.87 | 12.87 | 0.00 |
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Stellus Capital Hype Timeline
On the 26th of January Stellus Capital Inve is traded for 12.87. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Stellus is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.14%. %. The volatility of related hype on Stellus Capital is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 12.87. About 13.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.99. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Stellus Capital Inve last dividend was issued on the 30th of January 2026. The entity had 10043:10000 split on the 13th of January 2014. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Stellus Capital to cross-verify your projections.Stellus Capital Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Stellus Capital's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Stellus Capital's future price movements. Getting to know how Stellus Capital's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Stellus Capital may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SAR | Saratoga Investment Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.90 | 0.01 | 1.58 | (1.79) | 4.25 | |
| SOR | Source Capital Closed | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.11 | 0.04 | 1.83 | (1.93) | 5.72 | |
| PNNT | PennantPark Investment | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.16 | (2.42) | 7.91 | |
| DHIL | Diamond Hill Investment | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.75 | 0.08 | 1.64 | (1.95) | 45.03 | |
| GLAD | Gladstone Capital | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.18 | 0.01 | 2.09 | (1.72) | 9.50 | |
| EIC | Eagle Pointome | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 1.37 | (2.07) | 5.65 | |
| MCI | Barings Corporate Investors | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.18 | 0.01 | 2.28 | (2.31) | 8.35 | |
| RWAY | Runway Growth Finance | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 1.80 | (2.36) | 6.84 | |
| IPCX | Inflection Point Acquisition | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.43) | 0.49 | (0.39) | 1.08 | |
| BRR | Columbus Circle Capital | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.24) | 6.97 | (12.53) | 43.35 |
Other Forecasting Options for Stellus Capital
For every potential investor in Stellus, whether a beginner or expert, Stellus Capital's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Stellus Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Stellus. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Stellus Capital's price trends.Stellus Capital Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Stellus Capital stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Stellus Capital could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Stellus Capital by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Stellus Capital Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Stellus Capital stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Stellus Capital shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Stellus Capital stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Stellus Capital Investment entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Stellus Capital Risk Indicators
The analysis of Stellus Capital's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Stellus Capital's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting stellus stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.05 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.18 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.34 | |||
| Variance | 1.79 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.77 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.4 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.17) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Stellus Capital
The number of cover stories for Stellus Capital depends on current market conditions and Stellus Capital's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Stellus Capital is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Stellus Capital's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Stellus Capital Short Properties
Stellus Capital's future price predictability will typically decrease when Stellus Capital's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Stellus Capital Investment often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Stellus Capital's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Stellus Capital's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 25.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 20.1 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Stellus Capital to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Transaction History module to view history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance.
Is Stock space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Stellus Capital. If investors know Stellus will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Stellus Capital listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Stellus Capital Inve is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Stellus that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Stellus Capital's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Stellus Capital's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Stellus Capital's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Stellus Capital's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Stellus Capital's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Stellus Capital is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Stellus Capital's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.