Saga Communications Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| SGA Stock | USD 11.44 0.06 0.53% |
Saga Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Saga Communications stock prices and determine the direction of Saga Communications's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Saga Communications' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time, the relative strength momentum indicator of Saga Communications' share price is approaching 49. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Saga Communications, making its price go up or down. Momentum 49
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.56) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.16 | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.10) | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.54 | Wall Street Target Price 18 |
Using Saga Communications hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Saga Communications from the perspective of Saga Communications response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Saga Communications on the next trading day is expected to be 11.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.65. Saga Communications after-hype prediction price | USD 11.43 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Saga Communications to cross-verify your projections. Saga Communications Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Saga price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Saga using various technical indicators. When you analyze Saga charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Saga Communications Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 4th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Saga Communications on the next trading day is expected to be 11.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.65.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Saga Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Saga Communications' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Saga Communications Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Saga Communications | Saga Communications Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Saga Communications Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Saga Communications' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Saga Communications' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.71 and 13.13, respectively. We have considered Saga Communications' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Saga Communications stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Saga Communications stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.7793 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0243 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1275 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0111 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.6523 |
Predictive Modules for Saga Communications
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Saga Communications. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Saga Communications After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Saga Communications at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Saga Communications or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Saga Communications, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Saga Communications Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Saga Communications' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Saga Communications' historical news coverage. Saga Communications' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 9.70 and 13.16, respectively. We have considered Saga Communications' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Saga Communications is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Saga Communications is based on 3 months time horizon.
Saga Communications Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Saga Communications is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Saga Communications backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Saga Communications, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.07 | 1.71 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 8 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
11.44 | 11.43 | 0.09 |
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Saga Communications Hype Timeline
On the 3rd of February Saga Communications is traded for 11.44. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Saga is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 11.43. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.09%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.07%. The volatility of related hype on Saga Communications is about 1315.38%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 11.45. About 25.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.45. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Saga Communications last dividend was issued on the 24th of November 2025. The entity had 4:3 split on the 17th of January 2013. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Saga Communications to cross-verify your projections.Saga Communications Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Saga Communications' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Saga Communications' future price movements. Getting to know how Saga Communications' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Saga Communications may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| T | ATT Inc | 0.09 | 6 per month | 1.04 | 0 | 1.85 | (1.85) | 3.77 | |
| DIS | Walt Disney | (0.37) | 6 per month | 1.83 | (0.02) | 2.22 | (1.97) | 10.07 | |
| TRSSX | T Rowe Price | 0.30 | 1 per month | 0.67 | 0.13 | 1.92 | (1.63) | 11.70 | |
| SWKH | SWK Holdings Corp | 0.33 | 8 per month | 0.79 | 0.06 | 1.59 | (1.31) | 9.41 | |
| DILYX | Davis International Fund | (0.94) | 2 per month | 0.90 | 0.02 | 1.47 | (1.68) | 4.23 | |
| MRK | Merck Company | 0.42 | 7 per month | 1.13 | 0.19 | 3.59 | (1.98) | 8.09 | |
| EFSI | Eagle Financial Services | 0.08 | 25 per month | 1.01 | 0 | 2.35 | (1.66) | 5.82 | |
| RDHL | Redhill Biopharma | (0.02) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 7.77 | (6.14) | 46.87 | |
| BRSP | Brightspire Capital | (0.01) | 7 per month | 0.72 | 0.17 | 2.33 | (1.61) | 5.09 | |
| AA | Alcoa Corp | 1.42 | 8 per month | 2.69 | 0.16 | 6.40 | (5.54) | 14.55 |
Other Forecasting Options for Saga Communications
For every potential investor in Saga, whether a beginner or expert, Saga Communications' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Saga Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Saga. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Saga Communications' price trends.Saga Communications Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Saga Communications stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Saga Communications could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Saga Communications by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Saga Communications Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Saga Communications stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Saga Communications shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Saga Communications stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Saga Communications entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Saga Communications Risk Indicators
The analysis of Saga Communications' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Saga Communications' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting saga stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.27 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.75 | |||
| Variance | 3.06 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Saga Communications
The number of cover stories for Saga Communications depends on current market conditions and Saga Communications' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Saga Communications is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Saga Communications' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Saga Communications Short Properties
Saga Communications' future price predictability will typically decrease when Saga Communications' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Saga Communications often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Saga Communications' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Saga Communications' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 6.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 27.8 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Saga Communications to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Saga Stock refer to our How to Trade Saga Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.
Is Broadcasting space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Saga Communications. If investors know Saga will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Saga Communications assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.56) | Dividend Share 1 | Earnings Share 0.05 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.02) |
Investors evaluate Saga Communications using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Saga Communications' intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Saga Communications' market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Saga Communications' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Saga Communications is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Conversely, Saga Communications' market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.