Marchex Stock Price Prediction
| MCHX Stock | USD 1.70 0.03 1.80% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
46
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.01) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.06) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.04) | Wall Street Target Price 3.25 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.02) |
Using Marchex hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Marchex from the perspective of Marchex response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Marchex to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Marchex because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Marchex after-hype prediction price | USD 1.7 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Marchex |
Marchex After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Marchex at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Marchex or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Marchex, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Marchex Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Marchex's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Marchex's historical news coverage. Marchex's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.09 and 4.93, respectively. We have considered Marchex's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Marchex is very risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Marchex is based on 3 months time horizon.
Marchex Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Marchex is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Marchex backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Marchex, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.18 | 3.23 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 8 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
1.70 | 1.70 | 0.00 |
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Marchex Hype Timeline
Marchex is now traded for 1.70. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Marchex is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.18%. %. The volatility of related hype on Marchex is about 4213.04%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1.71. About 62.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Marchex was now reported as 0.79. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.09. Marchex last dividend was issued on the 7th of March 2018. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Marchex Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Marchex Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Marchex's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Marchex's future price movements. Getting to know how Marchex's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Marchex may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| EVC | Entravision Communications | 0.01 | 10 per month | 2.34 | 0.11 | 5.05 | (4.41) | 14.74 | |
| DRCT | Direct Digital Holdings | 0.11 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 8.40 | (16.56) | 55.53 | |
| CMPR | Cimpress NV | 0.94 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.77 | (4.08) | 16.61 | |
| TSQ | Townsquare Media | (0.16) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.24 | (2.72) | 9.63 | |
| CYPXF | EQ Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| INEOF | INEO Tech Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.69 | 0.00 | 79.58 | |
| KDOZF | Kidoz Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 18.82 | 0.18 | 133.33 | (57.14) | 420.00 | |
| SNIPF | Snipp Interactive | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.58 | 0.03 | 11.11 | (9.29) | 43.58 | |
| MMDDF | Mirriad Advertising plc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 49.21 | |
| QNST | QuinStreet | 0.85 | 10 per month | 3.00 | 0.09 | 5.54 | (5.19) | 17.37 | |
| EEX | Emerald Expositions Events | (0.10) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 4.73 | (7.44) | 36.80 | |
| DRCTW | Direct Digital Holdings | (0.73) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.01) | 13.64 | (17.65) | 61.65 |
Marchex Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Marchex price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Marchex using various technical indicators. When you analyze Marchex charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Marchex Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Marchex stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Marchex, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Marchex based on analysis of Marchex hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Marchex's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Marchex's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Days Sales Outstanding | 54.75 | 58.74 | 54.07 | 45.51 | PTB Ratio | 2.11 | 1.57 | 1.62 | 1.54 |
Story Coverage note for Marchex
The number of cover stories for Marchex depends on current market conditions and Marchex's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Marchex is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Marchex's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Marchex Short Properties
Marchex's future price predictability will typically decrease when Marchex's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Marchex often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Marchex's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Marchex's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 42.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 14.6 M |
Additional Tools for Marchex Stock Analysis
When running Marchex's price analysis, check to measure Marchex's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Marchex is operating at the current time. Most of Marchex's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Marchex's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Marchex's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Marchex to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.