Steven Madden Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| SHOO Stock | USD 45.64 0.15 0.33% |
Steven Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Steven Madden's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Steven Madden's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Steven Madden fundamentals over time.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Steven Madden's stock price is about 62. This usually implies that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of today. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Steven, making its price go up or down. Momentum 62
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.62) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.2995 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.6927 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.3707 | Wall Street Target Price 47.7778 |
Using Steven Madden hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Steven Madden from the perspective of Steven Madden response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Steven Madden using Steven Madden's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Steven using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Steven Madden's stock price.
Steven Madden Short Interest
An investor who is long Steven Madden may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Steven Madden and may potentially protect profits, hedge Steven Madden with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 31.3248 | Short Percent 0.1166 | Short Ratio 6.03 | Shares Short Prior Month 5.7 M | 50 Day MA 42.627 |
Steven Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Steven Madden on the next trading day is expected to be 45.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.86 and the sum of the absolute errors of 52.49.Steven Madden Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Steven Madden's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Steven. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Steven can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Steven Madden. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Steven Madden's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Steven Madden.
Steven Madden Implied Volatility | 0.81 |
Steven Madden's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Steven Madden stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Steven Madden's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Steven Madden stock will not fluctuate a lot when Steven Madden's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Steven Madden on the next trading day is expected to be 45.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.86 and the sum of the absolute errors of 52.49. Steven Madden after-hype prediction price | USD 45.31 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Steven Madden to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Steven contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Steven Madden will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0506% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Steven Madden trading at USD 45.64, that is roughly USD 0.0231 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Steven Madden's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Steven Madden options at the current volatility level of 0.81%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Steven Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Steven Madden's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Steven Madden's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Steven Madden stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Steven Madden's open interest, investors have to compare it to Steven Madden's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Steven Madden is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Steven. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Steven Madden Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Steven price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Steven using various technical indicators. When you analyze Steven charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Steven Madden Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Steven Madden's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 1993-06-30 | Previous Quarter 111.7 M | Current Value 108.7 M | Quarterly Volatility 78.5 M |
Steven Madden Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Steven Madden on the next trading day is expected to be 45.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.86, mean absolute percentage error of 1.26, and the sum of the absolute errors of 52.49.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Steven Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Steven Madden's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Steven Madden Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Steven Madden | Steven Madden Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Steven Madden Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Steven Madden's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Steven Madden's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 43.07 and 48.11, respectively. We have considered Steven Madden's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Steven Madden stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Steven Madden stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.3449 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.8605 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0216 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 52.4913 |
Predictive Modules for Steven Madden
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Steven Madden. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Steven Madden After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Steven Madden at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Steven Madden or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Steven Madden, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Steven Madden Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Steven Madden's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Steven Madden's historical news coverage. Steven Madden's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 42.79 and 47.83, respectively. We have considered Steven Madden's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Steven Madden is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Steven Madden is based on 3 months time horizon.
Steven Madden Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Steven Madden is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Steven Madden backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Steven Madden, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.46 | 2.52 | 0.10 | 0.11 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
45.64 | 45.31 | 0.15 |
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Steven Madden Hype Timeline
Steven Madden is at this time traded for 45.64. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.1, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.11. Steven is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 45.31. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.15%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.46%. The volatility of related hype on Steven Madden is about 1063.29%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 45.75. About 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Steven Madden was at this time reported as 11.71. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.83. Steven Madden last dividend was issued on the 15th of December 2025. The entity had 3:2 split on the 12th of October 2018. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Steven Madden to cross-verify your projections.Steven Madden Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Steven Madden's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Steven Madden's future price movements. Getting to know how Steven Madden's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Steven Madden may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ZGN | Ermenegildo Zegna NV | 0.08 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.79 | (3.06) | 17.11 | |
| WWW | Wolverine World Wide | 0.14 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 5.02 | (6.28) | 27.04 | |
| HBI | Hanesbrands | (0.23) | 21 per month | 1.49 | (0.02) | 2.38 | (2.35) | 7.22 | |
| OSW | OneSpaWorld Holdings | 0.29 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 4.69 | (2.86) | 10.62 | |
| CAKE | The Cheesecake Factory | 1.75 | 10 per month | 2.28 | 0.03 | 4.01 | (2.82) | 9.56 | |
| VAC | Marriot Vacations Worldwide | (0.20) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 4.80 | (4.18) | 30.30 | |
| GEF | Greif Bros | 0.84 | 10 per month | 1.15 | 0.17 | 2.61 | (2.01) | 5.52 | |
| CPRI | Capri Holdings | (0.07) | 8 per month | 1.60 | 0.07 | 4.71 | (2.85) | 12.06 | |
| DRVN | Driven Brands Holdings | (0.24) | 11 per month | 1.78 | (0.02) | 3.92 | (2.87) | 9.66 | |
| PENN | Penn National Gaming | 0.01 | 13 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 4.41 | (4.27) | 13.97 |
Other Forecasting Options for Steven Madden
For every potential investor in Steven, whether a beginner or expert, Steven Madden's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Steven Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Steven. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Steven Madden's price trends.Steven Madden Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Steven Madden stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Steven Madden could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Steven Madden by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Steven Madden Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Steven Madden stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Steven Madden shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Steven Madden stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Steven Madden entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Steven Madden Risk Indicators
The analysis of Steven Madden's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Steven Madden's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting steven stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.67 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.2 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.49 | |||
| Variance | 6.2 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.71 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.44 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.90) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Steven Madden
The number of cover stories for Steven Madden depends on current market conditions and Steven Madden's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Steven Madden is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Steven Madden's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Steven Madden Short Properties
Steven Madden's future price predictability will typically decrease when Steven Madden's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Steven Madden often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Steven Madden's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Steven Madden's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 72 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 203.4 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Steven Madden to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Steven Stock, please use our How to Invest in Steven Madden guide.You can also try the Watchlist Optimization module to optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm.
Is Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Steven Madden. If investors know Steven will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Steven Madden listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.62) | Dividend Share 0.84 | Earnings Share 0.78 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.069 |
The market value of Steven Madden is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Steven that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Steven Madden's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Steven Madden's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Steven Madden's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Steven Madden's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Steven Madden's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Steven Madden is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Steven Madden's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.