Sirius XM Stock Forward View
| SIRI Stock | USD 21.68 0.92 4.07% |
Sirius Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Sirius XM's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 7th of February 2026 the relative strength indicator of Sirius XM's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.70) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.73 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.1481 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.2495 | Wall Street Target Price 24.0714 |
Using Sirius XM hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Sirius XM Holding from the perspective of Sirius XM response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Sirius XM using Sirius XM's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Sirius using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Sirius XM's stock price.
Sirius XM Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Sirius XM's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Sirius. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Sirius XM stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 22.009 | Short Percent 0.1658 | Short Ratio 8.58 | Shares Short Prior Month 30.8 M | 50 Day MA 20.977 |
Sirius Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Sirius XM Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 21.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.42 and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.83.Sirius XM Holding Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Sirius XM's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Sirius. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Sirius can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Sirius XM Holding. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Sirius XM's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Sirius XM.
Sirius XM Implied Volatility | 0.37 |
Sirius XM's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Sirius XM Holding stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Sirius XM's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Sirius XM stock will not fluctuate a lot when Sirius XM's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Sirius XM Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 21.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.42 and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.83.
Sirius XM after-hype prediction price | USD 22.63 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Sirius XM to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Sirius contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Sirius XM Holding will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0231% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Sirius XM trading at USD 21.68, that is roughly USD 0.005014 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Sirius XM's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Sirius XM Holding options at the current volatility level of 0.37%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Sirius Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Sirius XM's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Sirius XM's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Sirius XM stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Sirius XM's open interest, investors have to compare it to Sirius XM's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Sirius XM is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Sirius. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Sirius XM Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Sirius price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Sirius using various technical indicators. When you analyze Sirius charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Sirius XM Cash Forecast
Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the Sirius XM's financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
Cash | First Reported 1994-12-31 | Previous Quarter 79 M | Current Value 94 M | Quarterly Volatility 279.9 M |
Sirius XM Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 8th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Sirius XM Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 21.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.42, mean absolute percentage error of 0.27, and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.83.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Sirius Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Sirius XM's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Sirius XM Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Sirius XM | Sirius XM Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Sirius XM Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Sirius XM's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Sirius XM's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 19.83 and 23.96, respectively. We have considered Sirius XM's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Sirius XM stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Sirius XM stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.6324 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4166 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0198 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 25.8286 |
Predictive Modules for Sirius XM
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Sirius XM Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sirius XM After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Sirius XM at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Sirius XM or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Sirius XM, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Sirius XM Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Sirius XM's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Sirius XM's historical news coverage. Sirius XM's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 20.63 and 24.63, respectively. We have considered Sirius XM's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Sirius XM is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Sirius XM Holding is based on 3 months time horizon.
Sirius XM Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Sirius XM is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Sirius XM backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Sirius XM, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.02 | 2.07 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 7 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
21.68 | 22.63 | 0.13 |
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Sirius XM Hype Timeline
Sirius XM Holding is at this time traded for 21.68. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. Sirius is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 22.63 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.13%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.02%. The volatility of related hype on Sirius XM is about 227.47%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 21.70. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 8.56 B. Net Income was 805 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 4.03 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Sirius XM to cross-verify your projections.Sirius XM Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Sirius XM's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Sirius XM's future price movements. Getting to know how Sirius XM's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Sirius XM may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LLYVK | Liberty Live Holdings | (3.74) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 2.42 | (2.93) | 10.21 | |
| LUMN | Lumen Technologies | 0.08 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 7.65 | (8.25) | 31.88 | |
| NXST | Nexstar Broadcasting Group | 5.41 | 8 per month | 1.35 | 0.07 | 3.01 | (2.52) | 7.04 | |
| TIGO | Millicom International Cellular | 1.32 | 10 per month | 1.96 | 0.21 | 4.78 | (3.24) | 15.97 | |
| MSGS | Madison Square Garden | 5.83 | 8 per month | 0.99 | 0.20 | 3.12 | (1.43) | 9.71 | |
| SKM | SK Telecom Co | (0.01) | 11 per month | 0.91 | 0.21 | 3.00 | (1.34) | 11.56 | |
| LBRDA | Liberty Broadband Srs | 0.03 | 8 per month | 2.24 | 0.01 | 4.56 | (3.87) | 10.23 | |
| AD | Array Digital Infrastructure | (1.64) | 12 per month | 1.87 | 0.1 | 3.45 | (3.12) | 10.82 |
Other Forecasting Options for Sirius XM
For every potential investor in Sirius, whether a beginner or expert, Sirius XM's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Sirius Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Sirius. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Sirius XM's price trends.Sirius XM Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Sirius XM stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Sirius XM could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Sirius XM by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Sirius XM Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Sirius XM stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Sirius XM shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Sirius XM stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Sirius XM Holding entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 714084.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.65) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.96 | |||
| Day Median Price | 21.82 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 21.77 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.60) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.92) |
Sirius XM Risk Indicators
The analysis of Sirius XM's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Sirius XM's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting sirius stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.45 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.45 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.97 | |||
| Variance | 3.89 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.45 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.1 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.81) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Sirius XM
The number of cover stories for Sirius XM depends on current market conditions and Sirius XM's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Sirius XM is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Sirius XM's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Sirius XM Short Properties
Sirius XM's future price predictability will typically decrease when Sirius XM's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Sirius XM Holding often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Sirius XM's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Sirius XM's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 357 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 94 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Sirius XM to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Crypto Correlations module to use cryptocurrency correlation module to diversify your cryptocurrency portfolio across multiple coins.
Is there potential for Cable & Satellite market expansion? Will Sirius introduce new products? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Sirius XM. If investors know Sirius will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Understanding fair value requires weighing current performance against future potential. All the valuation information about Sirius XM listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.70) | Dividend Share 1.08 | Earnings Share 3.91 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.002 |
Understanding Sirius XM Holding requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Sirius's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value - what Sirius XM's is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Analysts utilize numerous techniques to assess fundamental value, seeking to purchase shares when trading prices fall beneath estimated intrinsic worth. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Sirius XM's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Sirius XM's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Sirius XM is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. In contrast, Sirius XM's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.