Scotts Miracle Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| SMG Stock | USD 66.77 0.43 0.64% |
Scotts Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Scotts Miracle's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 12th of February 2026 the relative strength index (rsi) of Scotts Miracle's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Scotts Miracle hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Scotts Miracle Gro from the perspective of Scotts Miracle response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Scotts Miracle Gro on the next trading day is expected to be 67.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.96 and the sum of the absolute errors of 56.36. Scotts Miracle after-hype prediction price | USD 66.75 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Scotts Miracle to cross-verify your projections. Scotts Miracle Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Scotts price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Scotts using various technical indicators. When you analyze Scotts charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Scotts Miracle Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 13th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Scotts Miracle Gro on the next trading day is expected to be 67.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.96, mean absolute percentage error of 1.49, and the sum of the absolute errors of 56.36.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Scotts Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Scotts Miracle's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Scotts Miracle Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Scotts Miracle | Scotts Miracle Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Scotts Miracle Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Scotts Miracle's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Scotts Miracle's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 65.29 and 69.04, respectively. We have considered Scotts Miracle's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Scotts Miracle stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Scotts Miracle stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1528 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.9553 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0163 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 56.3631 |
Predictive Modules for Scotts Miracle
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Scotts Miracle Gro. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Scotts Miracle After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Scotts Miracle at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Scotts Miracle or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Scotts Miracle, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Scotts Miracle Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Scotts Miracle's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Scotts Miracle's historical news coverage. Scotts Miracle's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 64.87 and 68.63, respectively. We have considered Scotts Miracle's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Scotts Miracle is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Scotts Miracle Gro is based on 3 months time horizon.
Scotts Miracle Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Scotts Miracle is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Scotts Miracle backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Scotts Miracle, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.31 | 1.88 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
66.77 | 66.75 | 0.03 |
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Scotts Miracle Hype Timeline
On the 12th of February 2026 Scotts Miracle Gro is traded for 66.77. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.14. Scotts is expected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 66.75. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is insignificant. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.03%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.31%. The volatility of related hype on Scotts Miracle is about 423.42%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 66.91. About 24.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.78. Scotts Miracle Gro last dividend was issued on the 20th of February 2026. The entity had 2:1 split on the 10th of November 2005. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Scotts Miracle to cross-verify your projections.Scotts Miracle Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Scotts Miracle's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Scotts Miracle's future price movements. Getting to know how Scotts Miracle's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Scotts Miracle may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FUL | H B Fuller | (0.06) | 10 per month | 1.37 | 0.08 | 3.51 | (2.11) | 8.23 | |
| AVNT | Avient Corp | 1.19 | 10 per month | 1.10 | 0.25 | 3.71 | (2.32) | 8.89 | |
| USLM | United States Lime | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.56 | (3.59) | 10.78 | |
| CENX | Century Aluminum | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.01 | 0.23 | 6.74 | (6.26) | 16.21 | |
| PRM | Perimeter Solutions SA | 0.80 | 10 per month | 2.18 | 0 | 2.98 | (2.61) | 10.14 | |
| TTAM | Titan America SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.00 | 0.1 | 3.81 | (3.10) | 9.24 | |
| TGLS | Tecnoglass | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.73 | 0.09 | 3.61 | (3.06) | 10.44 | |
| ORLA | Orla Mining | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.59 | 0.10 | 6.74 | (8.21) | 27.40 | |
| NG | NovaGold Resources | 0.00 | 0 per month | 5.24 | 0.06 | 8.92 | (7.39) | 33.05 | |
| WDFC | WD 40 Company | 2.51 | 9 per month | 1.73 | 0.13 | 3.03 | (1.68) | 10.75 |
Other Forecasting Options for Scotts Miracle
For every potential investor in Scotts, whether a beginner or expert, Scotts Miracle's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Scotts Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Scotts. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Scotts Miracle's price trends.Scotts Miracle Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Scotts Miracle stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Scotts Miracle could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Scotts Miracle by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Scotts Miracle Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Scotts Miracle stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Scotts Miracle shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Scotts Miracle stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Scotts Miracle Gro entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 21046.56 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.16) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 67.19 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 67.05 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.64) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.43) |
Scotts Miracle Risk Indicators
The analysis of Scotts Miracle's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Scotts Miracle's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting scotts stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.45 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.58 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.88 | |||
| Variance | 3.52 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.87 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.49 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.44) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Scotts Miracle
The number of cover stories for Scotts Miracle depends on current market conditions and Scotts Miracle's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Scotts Miracle is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Scotts Miracle's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Scotts Miracle Short Properties
Scotts Miracle's future price predictability will typically decrease when Scotts Miracle's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Scotts Miracle Gro often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Scotts Miracle's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Scotts Miracle's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 58.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 36.6 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Scotts Miracle to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.
Can Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals industry sustain growth momentum? Does Scotts have expansion opportunities? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Scotts Miracle. If investors know Scotts will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Determining accurate worth demands scrutiny of both present operating results and projected expansion capacity. Evaluating Scotts Miracle demands reviewing these metrics collectively while recognizing certain factors exert disproportionate influence.
Scotts Miracle Gro's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on Scotts's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate Scotts Miracle's intrinsic value - its true economic worth - which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Market participants employ diverse analytical approaches to determine fair value and identify buying opportunities when prices dip below calculated worth. Since Scotts Miracle's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Scotts Miracle's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Scotts Miracle is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Scotts Miracle's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.