Semler Scientific Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| SMLR Stock | USD 61.23 2.42 3.80% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Semler Scientific on the next trading day is expected to be 61.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.60 and the sum of the absolute errors of 96.05. Semler Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Semler Scientific's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Semler Scientific's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Semler Scientific fundamentals over time.
Semler |
Semler Scientific Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Semler Scientific on the next trading day is expected to be 61.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.60, mean absolute percentage error of 9.27, and the sum of the absolute errors of 96.05.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Semler Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Semler Scientific's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Semler Scientific Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Semler Scientific | Semler Scientific Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Semler Scientific Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Semler Scientific's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Semler Scientific's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 53.74 and 68.72, respectively. We have considered Semler Scientific's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Semler Scientific stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Semler Scientific stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.4991 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.6102 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.6008 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0413 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 96.05 |
Predictive Modules for Semler Scientific
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Semler Scientific. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Semler Scientific
For every potential investor in Semler, whether a beginner or expert, Semler Scientific's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Semler Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Semler. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Semler Scientific's price trends.View Semler Scientific Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Semler Scientific Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Semler Scientific's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Semler Scientific's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Semler Scientific Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Semler Scientific stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Semler Scientific shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Semler Scientific stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Semler Scientific entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Semler Scientific Risk Indicators
The analysis of Semler Scientific's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Semler Scientific's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting semler stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.64 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.12 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 7.41 | |||
| Variance | 54.92 | |||
| Downside Variance | 13.91 | |||
| Semi Variance | 9.73 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (6.49) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Semler Scientific
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Semler Scientific position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Semler Scientific will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Semler Stock
Moving against Semler Stock
| 0.87 | EVH | Evolent Health | PairCorr |
| 0.77 | AGL | agilon health Buyout Trend | PairCorr |
| 0.77 | AMN | AMN Healthcare Services | PairCorr |
| 0.75 | PHG | Koninklijke Philips | PairCorr |
| 0.67 | FIGS | Figs Inc | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Semler Scientific could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Semler Scientific when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Semler Scientific - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Semler Scientific to buy it.
The correlation of Semler Scientific is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Semler Scientific moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Semler Scientific moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Semler Scientific can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for Semler Stock Analysis
When running Semler Scientific's price analysis, check to measure Semler Scientific's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Semler Scientific is operating at the current time. Most of Semler Scientific's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Semler Scientific's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Semler Scientific's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Semler Scientific to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.