Sonoma Pharmaceuticals Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| SNOA Stock | USD 3.44 0.17 5.20% |
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Sonoma Pharmaceuticals on the next trading day is expected to be 3.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.18. Sonoma Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Sonoma Pharmaceuticals stock prices and determine the direction of Sonoma Pharmaceuticals's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Sonoma Pharmaceuticals' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Sonoma Pharmaceuticals' share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.31) | EPS Estimate Current Year (1.61) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.56) | Wall Street Target Price 13.4 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.566 |
Using Sonoma Pharmaceuticals hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Sonoma Pharmaceuticals from the perspective of Sonoma Pharmaceuticals response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Sonoma Pharmaceuticals on the next trading day is expected to be 3.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.18. Sonoma Pharmaceuticals after-hype prediction price | USD 3.42 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Sonoma Pharmaceuticals to cross-verify your projections. Sonoma Pharmaceuticals Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Sonoma price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Sonoma using various technical indicators. When you analyze Sonoma charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Sonoma Pharmaceuticals Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Sonoma Pharmaceuticals on the next trading day is expected to be 3.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.18.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Sonoma Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Sonoma Pharmaceuticals' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Sonoma Pharmaceuticals Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Sonoma Pharmaceuticals | Sonoma Pharmaceuticals Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Sonoma Pharmaceuticals Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Sonoma Pharmaceuticals' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Sonoma Pharmaceuticals' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.29 and 6.54, respectively. We have considered Sonoma Pharmaceuticals' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Sonoma Pharmaceuticals stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Sonoma Pharmaceuticals stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.9301 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1668 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0476 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 10.1766 |
Predictive Modules for Sonoma Pharmaceuticals
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Sonoma Pharmaceuticals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sonoma Pharmaceuticals After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Sonoma Pharmaceuticals at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Sonoma Pharmaceuticals or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Sonoma Pharmaceuticals, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Sonoma Pharmaceuticals Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Sonoma Pharmaceuticals' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Sonoma Pharmaceuticals' historical news coverage. Sonoma Pharmaceuticals' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.30 and 6.54, respectively. We have considered Sonoma Pharmaceuticals' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Sonoma Pharmaceuticals is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Sonoma Pharmaceuticals is based on 3 months time horizon.
Sonoma Pharmaceuticals Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Sonoma Pharmaceuticals is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Sonoma Pharmaceuticals backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Sonoma Pharmaceuticals, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.20 | 3.12 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 10 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
3.44 | 3.42 | 0.58 |
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Sonoma Pharmaceuticals Hype Timeline
Sonoma Pharmaceuticals is at this time traded for 3.44. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Sonoma is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 3.42. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.58%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.2%. The volatility of related hype on Sonoma Pharmaceuticals is about 15600.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 3.44. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.47. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Sonoma Pharmaceuticals recorded a loss per share of 2.01. The entity last dividend was issued on the 20th of June 2019. The firm had 1:20 split on the 30th of August 2024. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Sonoma Pharmaceuticals to cross-verify your projections.Sonoma Pharmaceuticals Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Sonoma Pharmaceuticals' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Sonoma Pharmaceuticals' future price movements. Getting to know how Sonoma Pharmaceuticals' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Sonoma Pharmaceuticals may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CPHI | China Pharma Holdings | (0.04) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 6.67 | (6.72) | 18.93 | |
| RADX | Radiopharm Theranostics Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 8.09 | 0.04 | 7.44 | (9.23) | 193.18 | |
| FLGC | Flora Growth Corp | 0.08 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 8.18 | (12.26) | 30.99 | |
| EVOK | Evoke Pharma | (0.15) | 9 per month | 0.84 | 0.19 | 9.89 | (3.18) | 138.24 | |
| YCBD | cbdMD Inc | (0.07) | 8 per month | 7.65 | 0.02 | 19.17 | (14.07) | 112.24 | |
| BFRI | Biofrontera | (0.06) | 6 per month | 4.89 | 0.03 | 9.59 | (7.59) | 32.71 | |
| NBY | NovaBay Pharmaceuticals | 0.07 | 9 per month | 11.28 | 0.18 | 33.70 | (15.71) | 158.53 | |
| TCRT | Alaunos Therapeutics | 0.06 | 8 per month | 5.95 | 0 | 9.61 | (10.55) | 24.31 | |
| MYNZ | Mainz Biomed BV | (0.1) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 8.55 | (6.67) | 21.62 | |
| QNRX | Quoin Pharmaceuticals Ltd | 0.01 | 15 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 18.69 | (11.19) | 77.47 |
Other Forecasting Options for Sonoma Pharmaceuticals
For every potential investor in Sonoma, whether a beginner or expert, Sonoma Pharmaceuticals' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Sonoma Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Sonoma. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Sonoma Pharmaceuticals' price trends.Sonoma Pharmaceuticals Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Sonoma Pharmaceuticals stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Sonoma Pharmaceuticals could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Sonoma Pharmaceuticals by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Sonoma Pharmaceuticals Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Sonoma Pharmaceuticals stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Sonoma Pharmaceuticals shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Sonoma Pharmaceuticals stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Sonoma Pharmaceuticals entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Sonoma Pharmaceuticals Risk Indicators
The analysis of Sonoma Pharmaceuticals' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Sonoma Pharmaceuticals' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting sonoma stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.36 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.2 | |||
| Variance | 10.21 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Sonoma Pharmaceuticals
The number of cover stories for Sonoma Pharmaceuticals depends on current market conditions and Sonoma Pharmaceuticals' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Sonoma Pharmaceuticals is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Sonoma Pharmaceuticals' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Sonoma Pharmaceuticals Short Properties
Sonoma Pharmaceuticals' future price predictability will typically decrease when Sonoma Pharmaceuticals' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Sonoma Pharmaceuticals often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Sonoma Pharmaceuticals' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Sonoma Pharmaceuticals' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 5.4 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Sonoma Pharmaceuticals to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Sonoma Stock refer to our How to Trade Sonoma Stock guide.You can also try the Price Ceiling Movement module to calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments.
Is Pharmaceuticals space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Sonoma Pharmaceuticals. If investors know Sonoma will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Sonoma Pharmaceuticals listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (2.01) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.566 | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
The market value of Sonoma Pharmaceuticals is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Sonoma that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Sonoma Pharmaceuticals' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Sonoma Pharmaceuticals' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Sonoma Pharmaceuticals' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Sonoma Pharmaceuticals' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Sonoma Pharmaceuticals' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Sonoma Pharmaceuticals is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Sonoma Pharmaceuticals' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.