Southern Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| SO Stock | USD 87.54 0.03 0.03% |
Southern Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Southern's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Southern's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Southern fundamentals over time.
As of today, the relative strength index (RSI) of Southern's share price is approaching 46. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Southern, making its price go up or down. Momentum 46
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.108 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.627 | EPS Estimate Current Year 4.287 | EPS Estimate Next Year 4.5624 | Wall Street Target Price 95.725 |
Using Southern hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Southern Company from the perspective of Southern response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Southern using Southern's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Southern using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Southern's stock price.
Southern Short Interest
An investor who is long Southern may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Southern and may potentially protect profits, hedge Southern with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 91.2484 | Short Percent 0.0243 | Short Ratio 4.42 | Shares Short Prior Month 33.6 M | 50 Day MA 87.8452 |
Southern Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Southern Company on the next trading day is expected to be 87.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.65 and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.14.Southern Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Southern's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Southern. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Southern can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Southern Company. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Southern's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Southern.
Southern Implied Volatility | 0.42 |
Southern's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Southern Company stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Southern's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Southern stock will not fluctuate a lot when Southern's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Southern Company on the next trading day is expected to be 87.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.65 and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.14. Southern after-hype prediction price | USD 87.54 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Southern to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Southern contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Southern Company will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0263% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Southern trading at USD 87.54, that is roughly USD 0.023 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Southern's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Southern Company options at the current volatility level of 0.42%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Southern Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Southern's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Southern's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Southern stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Southern's open interest, investors have to compare it to Southern's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Southern is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Southern. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Southern Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Southern price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Southern using various technical indicators. When you analyze Southern charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Southern Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Southern Company on the next trading day is expected to be 87.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.65, mean absolute percentage error of 0.69, and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.14.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Southern Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Southern's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Southern Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Southern | Southern Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Southern Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Southern's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Southern's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 86.61 and 88.47, respectively. We have considered Southern's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Southern stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Southern stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.9001 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0933 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6523 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0074 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 39.14 |
Predictive Modules for Southern
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Southern. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Southern After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Southern at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Southern or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Southern, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Southern Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Southern's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Southern's historical news coverage. Southern's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 86.60 and 88.48, respectively. We have considered Southern's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Southern is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Southern is based on 3 months time horizon.
Southern Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Southern is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Southern backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Southern, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.10 | 0.93 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 8 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
87.54 | 87.54 | 0.00 |
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Southern Hype Timeline
As of January 26, 2026 Southern is listed for 87.54. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.08, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.07. Southern is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 120.78%. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.1%. %. The volatility of related hype on Southern is about 130.99%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 87.61. About 74.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Southern was at this time reported as 31.79. The company last dividend was issued on the 17th of November 2025. Southern had 10000:6109 split on the 3rd of April 2001. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Southern to cross-verify your projections.Southern Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Southern's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Southern's future price movements. Getting to know how Southern's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Southern may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DUK | Duke Energy | 0.77 | 26 per month | 0.00 | (0.24) | 1.23 | (1.39) | 4.59 | |
| NGG | National Grid PLC | 0.94 | 9 per month | 0.77 | 0.04 | 1.83 | (1.43) | 4.11 | |
| AEP | American Electric Power | 1.12 | 9 per month | 0.93 | (0.06) | 1.73 | (1.51) | 8.71 | |
| D | Dominion Energy | 0.97 | 21 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 1.63 | (2.04) | 5.71 | |
| XEL | Xcel Energy | 0.19 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 1.27 | (1.64) | 5.29 | |
| EXC | Exelon | 0.77 | 26 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 1.26 | (1.77) | 4.76 | |
| CEG | Constellation Energy Corp | 0.77 | 20 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 5.34 | (5.16) | 16.21 | |
| ETR | Entergy | (0.08) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 1.55 | (2.15) | 4.90 | |
| NEE | Nextera Energy | 0.94 | 23 per month | 1.32 | (0.05) | 1.92 | (2.20) | 5.66 |
Other Forecasting Options for Southern
For every potential investor in Southern, whether a beginner or expert, Southern's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Southern Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Southern. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Southern's price trends.Southern Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Southern stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Southern could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Southern by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Southern Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Southern stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Southern shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Southern stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Southern Company entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Southern Risk Indicators
The analysis of Southern's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Southern's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting southern stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7418 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.9314 | |||
| Variance | 0.8675 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Southern
The number of cover stories for Southern depends on current market conditions and Southern's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Southern is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Southern's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Southern Short Properties
Southern's future price predictability will typically decrease when Southern's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Southern Company often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Southern's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Southern's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.1 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.1 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Southern to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Competition Analyzer module to analyze and compare many basic indicators for a group of related or unrelated entities.
Is Electric Utilities space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Southern. If investors know Southern will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Southern listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.108 | Dividend Share 2.92 | Earnings Share 4.02 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.075 |
The market value of Southern is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Southern that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Southern's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Southern's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Southern's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Southern's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Southern's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Southern is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Southern's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.