Spotify Technology Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| SPOT Stock | USD 496.56 12.14 2.39% |
Spotify Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Spotify Technology's share price is approaching 32. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Spotify Technology, making its price go up or down. Momentum 32
Sell Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.265 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.5741 | EPS Estimate Current Year 7.4773 | EPS Estimate Next Year 12.2251 | Wall Street Target Price 741.993 |
Using Spotify Technology hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Spotify Technology SA from the perspective of Spotify Technology response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Spotify Technology using Spotify Technology's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Spotify using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Spotify Technology's stock price.
Spotify Technology Short Interest
An investor who is long Spotify Technology may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Spotify Technology and may potentially protect profits, hedge Spotify Technology with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 649.1337 | Short Percent 0.04 | Short Ratio 3.31 | Shares Short Prior Month 7.5 M | 50 Day MA 570.2552 |
Spotify Relative Strength Index
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Spotify Technology SA on the next trading day is expected to be 502.63 with a mean absolute deviation of 10.53 and the sum of the absolute errors of 621.01.Spotify Technology Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Spotify Technology's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Spotify. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Spotify can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Spotify Technology SA. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Spotify Technology's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Spotify Technology.
Spotify Technology Implied Volatility | 0.43 |
Spotify Technology's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Spotify Technology SA stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Spotify Technology's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Spotify Technology stock will not fluctuate a lot when Spotify Technology's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Spotify Technology SA on the next trading day is expected to be 502.63 with a mean absolute deviation of 10.53 and the sum of the absolute errors of 621.01. Spotify Technology after-hype prediction price | USD 493.56 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Spotify Technology to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Spotify contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Spotify Technology SA will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0269% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Spotify Technology trading at USD 496.56, that is roughly USD 0.13 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Spotify Technology's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Spotify Technology SA options at the current volatility level of 0.43%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Spotify Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Spotify Technology's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Spotify Technology's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Spotify Technology stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Spotify Technology's open interest, investors have to compare it to Spotify Technology's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Spotify Technology is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Spotify. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Spotify Technology Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Spotify price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Spotify using various technical indicators. When you analyze Spotify charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Spotify Technology Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Spotify Technology SA on the next trading day is expected to be 502.63 with a mean absolute deviation of 10.53, mean absolute percentage error of 176.42, and the sum of the absolute errors of 621.01.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Spotify Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Spotify Technology's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Spotify Technology Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Spotify Technology | Spotify Technology Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Spotify Technology Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Spotify Technology's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Spotify Technology's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 500.77 and 504.49, respectively. We have considered Spotify Technology's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Spotify Technology stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Spotify Technology stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.6076 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 3.7431 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 10.5256 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0184 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 621.01 |
Predictive Modules for Spotify Technology
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Spotify Technology. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Spotify Technology After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Spotify Technology at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Spotify Technology or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Spotify Technology, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Spotify Technology Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Spotify Technology's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Spotify Technology's historical news coverage. Spotify Technology's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 491.70 and 546.22, respectively. We have considered Spotify Technology's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Spotify Technology is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Spotify Technology is based on 3 months time horizon.
Spotify Technology Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Spotify Technology is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Spotify Technology backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Spotify Technology, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.44 | 1.86 | 3.00 | 0.75 | 7 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
496.56 | 493.56 | 0.60 |
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Spotify Technology Hype Timeline
Spotify Technology is at this time traded for 496.56. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -3.0, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.75. Spotify is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 493.56. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 27.31%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.6%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.44%. The volatility of related hype on Spotify Technology is about 108.61%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 495.81. About 24.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.28. Spotify Technology recorded earning per share (EPS) of 8.04. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Spotify Technology to cross-verify your projections.Spotify Technology Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Spotify Technology's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Spotify Technology's future price movements. Getting to know how Spotify Technology's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Spotify Technology may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DASH | DoorDash Class A | 4.35 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 4.00 | (4.60) | 19.47 | |
| T | ATT Inc | 0.01 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 1.63 | (1.85) | 4.30 | |
| VZ | Verizon Communications | 0.16 | 7 per month | 1.17 | (0) | 1.98 | (2.08) | 5.34 | |
| CMCSA | Comcast Corp | 0.35 | 7 per month | 1.77 | 0.01 | 2.72 | (2.55) | 7.92 | |
| NBIS | Nebius Group NV | (2.54) | 9 per month | 5.04 | (0) | 9.60 | (7.91) | 23.24 | |
| RDDT | (14.36) | 7 per month | 4.03 | (0.01) | 6.28 | (7.76) | 21.40 | ||
| TME | Tencent Music Entertainment | (0.78) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 3.54 | (4.93) | 12.10 | |
| BIDU | Baidu Inc | (0.89) | 8 per month | 2.23 | 0.11 | 6.07 | (4.54) | 18.81 |
Other Forecasting Options for Spotify Technology
For every potential investor in Spotify, whether a beginner or expert, Spotify Technology's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Spotify Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Spotify. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Spotify Technology's price trends.Spotify Technology Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Spotify Technology stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Spotify Technology could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Spotify Technology by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Spotify Technology Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Spotify Technology stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Spotify Technology shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Spotify Technology stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Spotify Technology SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 496.56 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 496.56 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (6.07) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (12.14) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 32.09 |
Spotify Technology Risk Indicators
The analysis of Spotify Technology's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Spotify Technology's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting spotify stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.42 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.87 | |||
| Variance | 3.51 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Spotify Technology
The number of cover stories for Spotify Technology depends on current market conditions and Spotify Technology's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Spotify Technology is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Spotify Technology's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Spotify Technology Short Properties
Spotify Technology's future price predictability will typically decrease when Spotify Technology's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Spotify Technology SA often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Spotify Technology's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Spotify Technology's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 207 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 7.4 B |
Additional Tools for Spotify Stock Analysis
When running Spotify Technology's price analysis, check to measure Spotify Technology's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Spotify Technology is operating at the current time. Most of Spotify Technology's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Spotify Technology's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Spotify Technology's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Spotify Technology to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.