SR Bancorp Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| SRBK Stock | 16.69 0.23 1.36% |
SRBK Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although SR Bancorp's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of SR Bancorp's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of SR Bancorp fundamentals over time.
As of now, The relative strength index (RSI) of SR Bancorp's share price is at 59. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling SR Bancorp, making its price go up or down. Momentum 59
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.43) | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.37 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.57 | Wall Street Target Price 16.5 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.07) |
Using SR Bancorp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of SR Bancorp Common from the perspective of SR Bancorp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of SR Bancorp Common on the next trading day is expected to be 17.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.26 and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.01. SR Bancorp after-hype prediction price | USD 16.69 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of SR Bancorp to cross-verify your projections. SR Bancorp Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine SRBK price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for SRBK using various technical indicators. When you analyze SRBK charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
SR Bancorp Cash Forecast
To forecast cash or other financial indicators, analysts must employ diverse statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. This approach allows them to detect underlying patterns in the SR Bancorp's financial statements, predicting their influence on future market prices.
Cash | First Reported 2010-12-31 | Previous Quarter 66.4 M | Current Value 52.4 M | Quarterly Volatility 7.1 M |
SR Bancorp Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of SR Bancorp Common on the next trading day is expected to be 17.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.26, mean absolute percentage error of 0.11, and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.01.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict SRBK Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that SR Bancorp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
SR Bancorp Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest SR Bancorp | SR Bancorp Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
SR Bancorp Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting SR Bancorp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. SR Bancorp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 16.18 and 18.79, respectively. We have considered SR Bancorp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of SR Bancorp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent SR Bancorp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.889 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2625 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0164 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 16.0107 |
Predictive Modules for SR Bancorp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as SR Bancorp Common. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.SR Bancorp After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of SR Bancorp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in SR Bancorp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of SR Bancorp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
SR Bancorp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting SR Bancorp's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on SR Bancorp's historical news coverage. SR Bancorp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 15.38 and 18.00, respectively. We have considered SR Bancorp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
SR Bancorp is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of SR Bancorp Common is based on 3 months time horizon.
SR Bancorp Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as SR Bancorp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading SR Bancorp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with SR Bancorp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.20 | 1.31 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 9 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
16.69 | 16.69 | 0.00 |
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SR Bancorp Hype Timeline
SR Bancorp Common is at this time traded for 16.69. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. SRBK is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.2%. %. The volatility of related hype on SR Bancorp is about 2568.63%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 16.68. About 18.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.67. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. SR Bancorp Common last dividend was issued on the 31st of December 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of SR Bancorp to cross-verify your projections.SR Bancorp Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to SR Bancorp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict SR Bancorp's future price movements. Getting to know how SR Bancorp's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how SR Bancorp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AFBI | Affinity Bancshares | 0.25 | 6 per month | 1.33 | 0.04 | 2.51 | (2.18) | 13.88 | |
| SBFG | SB Financial Group | (0.23) | 11 per month | 2.29 | 0.06 | 4.58 | (3.96) | 10.28 | |
| RBKB | Rhinebeck Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.96 | 0.16 | 3.65 | (2.17) | 8.81 | |
| PNBK | Patriot National Bancorp | (0.23) | 17 per month | 4.04 | 0.1 | 6.98 | (6.40) | 17.77 | |
| SFBC | Sound Financial Bancorp | 0.02 | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 1.00 | (1.15) | 6.34 | |
| RVSB | Riverview Bancorp | (0.15) | 4 per month | 1.58 | (0.04) | 3.33 | (2.50) | 9.27 | |
| MGYR | Magyar Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.11 | 0.03 | 2.07 | (2.45) | 6.78 | |
| LSBK | Lake Shore Bancorp | (0.19) | 10 per month | 0.73 | 0.21 | 2.39 | (1.48) | 5.78 | |
| RMBI | Richmond Mutual Bancorporation | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.24 | 0.01 | 3.33 | (2.55) | 7.33 | |
| EBMT | Eagle Bancorp Montana | 0.02 | 2 per month | 1.00 | 0.20 | 2.93 | (1.80) | 5.59 |
Other Forecasting Options for SR Bancorp
For every potential investor in SRBK, whether a beginner or expert, SR Bancorp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. SRBK Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in SRBK. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying SR Bancorp's price trends.SR Bancorp Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with SR Bancorp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of SR Bancorp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing SR Bancorp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
SR Bancorp Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how SR Bancorp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading SR Bancorp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying SR Bancorp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify SR Bancorp Common entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
SR Bancorp Risk Indicators
The analysis of SR Bancorp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in SR Bancorp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting srbk stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8367 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.06 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.28 | |||
| Variance | 1.64 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.86 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.12 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.87) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for SR Bancorp
The number of cover stories for SR Bancorp depends on current market conditions and SR Bancorp's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that SR Bancorp is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about SR Bancorp's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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SR Bancorp Short Properties
SR Bancorp's future price predictability will typically decrease when SR Bancorp's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of SR Bancorp Common often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential SR Bancorp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. SR Bancorp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 8.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 58 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of SR Bancorp to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio File Import module to quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of SR Bancorp. If investors know SRBK will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about SR Bancorp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.43) | Dividend Share 0.15 | Earnings Share 0.54 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.07) |
The market value of SR Bancorp Common is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of SRBK that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of SR Bancorp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is SR Bancorp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because SR Bancorp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect SR Bancorp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between SR Bancorp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if SR Bancorp is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, SR Bancorp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.