Sterling Construction Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| STRL Stock | USD 415.13 4.50 1.10% |
Sterling Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength momentum indicator of Sterling Construction's share price is above 70 as of now. This usually implies that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Sterling, making its price go up or down. Momentum 73
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Sterling Construction hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Sterling Construction from the perspective of Sterling Construction response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Sterling Construction on the next trading day is expected to be 415.44 with a mean absolute deviation of 9.57 and the sum of the absolute errors of 564.42. Sterling Construction after-hype prediction price | USD 416.56 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Sterling Construction to cross-verify your projections. Sterling Construction Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Sterling price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Sterling using various technical indicators. When you analyze Sterling charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Sterling Construction Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Sterling Construction on the next trading day is expected to be 415.44 with a mean absolute deviation of 9.57, mean absolute percentage error of 166.79, and the sum of the absolute errors of 564.42.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Sterling Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Sterling Construction's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Sterling Construction Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Sterling Construction | Sterling Construction Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Sterling Construction Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Sterling Construction's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Sterling Construction's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 411.64 and 419.23, respectively. We have considered Sterling Construction's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Sterling Construction stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Sterling Construction stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -1.4275 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 9.5664 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0277 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 564.4193 |
Predictive Modules for Sterling Construction
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Sterling Construction. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sterling Construction After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Sterling Construction at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Sterling Construction or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Sterling Construction, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Sterling Construction Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Sterling Construction's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Sterling Construction's historical news coverage. Sterling Construction's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 370.18 and 420.39, respectively. We have considered Sterling Construction's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Sterling Construction is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Sterling Construction is based on 3 months time horizon.
Sterling Construction Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Sterling Construction is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Sterling Construction backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Sterling Construction, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.52 | 3.80 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
415.13 | 416.56 | 1.28 |
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Sterling Construction Hype Timeline
Sterling Construction is at this time traded for 415.13. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.1. Sterling is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 416.56 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is insignificant. The price upswing on the next news is projected to be 1.28%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.52%. The volatility of related hype on Sterling Construction is about 2065.22%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 415.23. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 2.12 B. Net Income was 270.92 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 514.87 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Sterling Construction to cross-verify your projections.Sterling Construction Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Sterling Construction's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Sterling Construction's future price movements. Getting to know how Sterling Construction's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Sterling Construction may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BLD | Topbuild Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.54 | 0.12 | 4.50 | (2.28) | 10.24 | |
| STN | Stantec | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 1.96 | (1.91) | 14.41 | |
| ERJ | ERJ Old | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.47 | 0.13 | 3.07 | (2.82) | 7.33 | |
| BLDR | Builders FirstSource | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.14 | 0.04 | 4.67 | (3.52) | 17.03 | |
| HII | Huntington Ingalls Industries | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.27 | 0.22 | 4.34 | (3.03) | 16.77 | |
| WMS | Advanced Drainage Systems | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.07 | 0.12 | 3.31 | (1.85) | 9.24 | |
| AYI | Acuity Brands | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 2.66 | (2.86) | 16.54 | |
| MLI | Mueller Industries | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.78 | 0.07 | 2.26 | (1.65) | 13.77 | |
| TTEK | Tetra Tech | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.64 | 0.07 | 4.02 | (3.39) | 16.69 | |
| MTZ | MasTec Inc | 1.84 | 10 per month | 2.01 | 0.22 | 4.38 | (4.09) | 13.07 |
Other Forecasting Options for Sterling Construction
For every potential investor in Sterling, whether a beginner or expert, Sterling Construction's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Sterling Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Sterling. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Sterling Construction's price trends.Sterling Construction Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Sterling Construction stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Sterling Construction could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Sterling Construction by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Sterling Construction Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Sterling Construction stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Sterling Construction shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Sterling Construction stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Sterling Construction entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Sterling Construction Risk Indicators
The analysis of Sterling Construction's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Sterling Construction's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting sterling stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.82 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.61 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.8 | |||
| Variance | 14.42 | |||
| Downside Variance | 16.4 | |||
| Semi Variance | 13.05 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.98) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Sterling Construction
The number of cover stories for Sterling Construction depends on current market conditions and Sterling Construction's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Sterling Construction is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Sterling Construction's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Sterling Construction Short Properties
Sterling Construction's future price predictability will typically decrease when Sterling Construction's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Sterling Construction often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Sterling Construction's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Sterling Construction's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 31.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 664.2 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Sterling Construction to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Sterling Stock please use our How to buy in Sterling Stock guide.You can also try the Positions Ratings module to determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Is Construction & Engineering space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Sterling Construction. If investors know Sterling will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Sterling Construction assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Understanding Sterling Construction requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Sterling's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value - what Sterling Construction's is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Sterling Construction's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Sterling Construction's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Sterling Construction is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. In contrast, Sterling Construction's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.