SU Group Stock Forward View - Simple Regression

SUGP Stock   5.77  0.10  1.70%   
SUGP Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although SU Group's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of SU Group's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of SU Group fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of SU Group's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of SU Group's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with SU Group Holdings, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting SU Group's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.03)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.07)
Using SU Group hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of SU Group Holdings from the perspective of SU Group response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of SU Group Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 6.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31 and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.19.

SU Group after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 5.76  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of SU Group to cross-verify your projections.

SU Group Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine SUGP price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for SUGP using various technical indicators. When you analyze SUGP charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through SU Group price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

SU Group Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 9th of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of SU Group Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 6.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31, mean absolute percentage error of 0.16, and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.19.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict SUGP Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that SU Group's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

SU Group Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest SU Group  SU Group Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

SU Group Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting SU Group's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. SU Group's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.06 and 13.72, respectively. We have considered SU Group's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
5.77
6.09
Expected Value
13.72
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of SU Group stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent SU Group stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.2936
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.3146
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0517
SAESum of the absolute errors19.1889
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as SU Group Holdings historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for SU Group

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as SU Group Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.295.7613.39
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.255.0112.64
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as SU Group. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against SU Group's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, SU Group's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in SU Group Holdings.

SU Group After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of SU Group at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in SU Group or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of SU Group, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

SU Group Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting SU Group's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on SU Group's historical news coverage. SU Group's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.29 and 13.39, respectively. We have considered SU Group's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
5.77
5.76
After-hype Price
13.39
Upside
SU Group is very risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of SU Group Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.

SU Group Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as SU Group is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading SU Group backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with SU Group, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.04 
7.63
  0.01 
  0.01 
6 Events / Month
4 Events / Month
In about 6 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
5.77
5.76
0.17 
2,062  
Notes

SU Group Hype Timeline

SU Group Holdings is at this time traded for 5.77. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. SUGP is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 5.76. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.17%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.04%. The volatility of related hype on SU Group is about 2812.9%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 5.76. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.77. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. SU Group Holdings recorded a loss per share of 1.71. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. The firm had 1:10 split on the 25th of August 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 6 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of SU Group to cross-verify your projections.

SU Group Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to SU Group's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict SU Group's future price movements. Getting to know how SU Group's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how SU Group may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for SU Group

For every potential investor in SUGP, whether a beginner or expert, SU Group's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. SUGP Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in SUGP. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying SU Group's price trends.

SU Group Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with SU Group stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of SU Group could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing SU Group by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

SU Group Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how SU Group stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading SU Group shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying SU Group stock market strength indicators, traders can identify SU Group Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

SU Group Risk Indicators

The analysis of SU Group's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in SU Group's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting sugp stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for SU Group

The number of cover stories for SU Group depends on current market conditions and SU Group's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that SU Group is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about SU Group's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

SU Group Short Properties

SU Group's future price predictability will typically decrease when SU Group's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of SU Group Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential SU Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. SU Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding13 M
Cash And Short Term Investments52.3 M

Additional Tools for SUGP Stock Analysis

When running SU Group's price analysis, check to measure SU Group's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy SU Group is operating at the current time. Most of SU Group's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of SU Group's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move SU Group's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of SU Group to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.