Swvl Holdings Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| SWVL Stock | USD 6.20 0.21 3.28% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Swvl Holdings Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 6.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.01. Swvl Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Swvl Holdings' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Swvl Holdings' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Swvl Holdings fundamentals over time.
Swvl |
Swvl Holdings Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Swvl Holdings Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 6.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25, mean absolute percentage error of 0.21, and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.01.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Swvl Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Swvl Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Swvl Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern
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Swvl Holdings Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Swvl Holdings' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Swvl Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.06 and 15.25, respectively. We have considered Swvl Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Swvl Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Swvl Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.6898 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0092 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2502 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0613 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 15.01 |
Predictive Modules for Swvl Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Swvl Holdings Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Swvl Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Swvl Holdings
For every potential investor in Swvl, whether a beginner or expert, Swvl Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Swvl Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Swvl. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Swvl Holdings' price trends.View Swvl Holdings Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Swvl Holdings Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Swvl Holdings' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Swvl Holdings' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Swvl Holdings Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Swvl Holdings stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Swvl Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Swvl Holdings stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Swvl Holdings Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 2046.25 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.29) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.97 | |||
| Day Median Price | 6.21 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 6.21 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.11) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.21) |
Swvl Holdings Risk Indicators
The analysis of Swvl Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Swvl Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting swvl stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 5.45 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 8.59 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 8.91 | |||
| Variance | 79.45 | |||
| Downside Variance | 88.72 | |||
| Semi Variance | 73.76 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (6.18) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Is Application Software space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Swvl Holdings. If investors know Swvl will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Swvl Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share 0.37 | Revenue Per Share 3.368 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.49) | Return On Assets (0.13) | Return On Equity 0.9633 |
The market value of Swvl Holdings Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Swvl that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Swvl Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Swvl Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Swvl Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Swvl Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Swvl Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Swvl Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Swvl Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.